NCAAB Odds, Pick for Michigan State vs Indiana

Michigan State wants to avoid slipping to the double-digit seed line in the NCAA tournament, and beating Indiana in Bloomington could seal the deal.

That sounded fairly easy a few months ago, but Indiana will look to play Big Ten spoiler.

Michigan State barely evaded a short-handed Northwestern squad on Senior Night in East Lansing. The final tally of 53-49 was the biggest separation the Spartans created all game.

Michigan State's offense has been an issue, and the problems got worse this week. It scored only 0.91 points per possession against NW's shaky defense.

Michigan State's roster is just poorly-constructed. While Tom Izzo is one of the elite coaches in the game, he hasn't figured out the transfer portal yet. Typically, he only goes after players with multiple years to play, like Tyson Walker several years ago.

Running it back with three inconsistent players — Malik Hall, A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins — hasn't worked. The idea was all three would get better with another season in Izzo's system, but the three just haven't made huge improvements.

Hoggard and Akins shoot around 40% from the field with mediocre 3-point numbers.

Walker is Michigan State's only trustworthy scorer, tallying over 18 points per game. He's a big shot-maker and connects on 36.7% of his shots from downtown.

While Michigan State's offense is poor, the defense is one of the sport's best. Izzo knows how to win based on his personnel, and this team needs defense. The Spartans rank 11th nationally in Defensive Efficiency, led by a strong 46% 2-point field goal percentage.

The game plan for the Spartans is forcing tough 3s, as opponents attempt triples on 42% of their field goals. It'll be interesting to see how Indiana responds, since it shoot 3s less than 28% of the time.

Mike Woodson caught flack from the general public when he said Xavier Johnson staying healthy would've changed Indiana's season. I thought Woodson sounded crazy, and it served as a last-ditch, job-saving effort, but the Hoosiers have won three straight with Johnson back.

Indiana looks significantly better with an actual point guard setting up the stars — Kel'el Ware and Malik Reneau. Ware is fully flashing the potential that made him a top-10 recruit two years ago, as he's scored 25+ points in two of the past three games with double-doubles in all three.

You won't find a better interior duo in the Big Ten than Ware and Reneau.

Another big difference has been freshman Mackenzie Mgbako shooting it better from deep. When Mgbako decommited from Duke and changed his pledge to Indiana, fans loved the idea of his size and shooting next to the bigs.

That idea is coming to fruition, as Mgbako has drilled seven 3s in the past two games.

Indiana is a really poor free-throw shooting team, despite attempting free throws on 39% of its offensive possessions. The Hoosiers only convert on 65% of those attempts, one of the worst marks in America.

Nothing about Indiana jumps off the page besides the two bigs. The team ranks just 89th in Offensive Efficiency and 95th in Defensive Efficiency.

Izzo is regularly shifting his rotation at the five between Mady Sissoko, Carson Cooper and Xavier Booker.

None of those guys have enough physicality to keep Ware and Reneau from hounding the glass.

I expect the two gifted bigs to live at the foul line; it just comes down to making foul shots.

Indiana is fiery hot, and Michigan State is just so underwhelming.

I'm backing Woody and the Hoosiers.

Pick: Indiana ML +140