Michigan State vs. North Carolina March Madness Projected Odds

Michigan State vs. North Carolina Projected Odds

Michigan State won as a lower seed yet again.

The Spartans dismantled Mississippi State in the Round of 64's opener on Tuesday afternoon to move on.

In the Round of 32, Michigan State will likely face North Carolina unless the worst team in the tournament according to KenPom, Wagner, pulls off one of the biggest upsets of all-time in beating UNC.

For Michigan State vs. North Carolina, our head of data analytics Sean Koerner has projected odds.

The fair market price, according to our algorithm, pits North Carolina as just 4-point favorites over Michigan State in a No. 1 seed vs. No. 9 seed matchup.

The fair market moneyline for the Spartans is +167 while North Carolina should be priced at -167.

And the total should be priced around 135.5, according to our model.

So, any opening market prices that differs wildly from these figures has positive expected value.

For instance, if Michigan State is priced at +215 on the moneyline at open, relative to our algorithm, you'd have 5.75% in EV. In essence, if you make that type of wager over a very long sample size, you're expected to profit about 6 cents for every dollar wagered.

North Carolina is the most vulnerable No. 1 seed in the field, according to KenPom. But Koerner's models indicate value on one future in particular: on UNC to make the Elite Eight.

Koerner gives the fair market odds at +133. Meanwhile, the best market odds are at FanDuel at +172.