Mississippi State vs North Texas Odds, Pick, Prediction | NCAAB Betting Guide (Sunday, Dec. 17)

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have a true test at a neutral location in Mississippi on Sunday against North Texas.

The Mean Green have a staunch defense and have played at one of the slowest paces in college basketball for years. Their offensive approach is pretty weak, but so is the approach of the Bulldogs. Neither team ranks in the top 90 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom, while each team ranks in the top 35 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

Expect a rock fight, so here's Mississippi State vs North Texas pick and prediction, including an NCAAB betting guide for Sunday, Dec. 17.

Mississippi State ranks 96th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and seventh defensively. The Bulldogs average 17.8 seconds per possession on offense and 16.2 seconds per possession on defense.

However, a driver of this weak offense has been that the Bulldogs hoist 3s at a 44.1% clip (44th), but they're only hitting 31.5% collectively from outside (238th). They rank 271st in Open 3 Rate, per ShotQuality, so the Bulldogs aren't even getting open, which could be a main cause of this inefficiency.

North Texas ranks 352nd in Open 3 Rate on defense, and opponents are shooting 32.4% on the Mean Green. That said, the Bulldogs don't take the best shots from deep, and North Texas is holding opponents to a 34% 3-point attempt rate.

Mississippi State is hitting 55.3% of its 2-pointers. North Texas is holding opponents to 44.2% from inside the perimeter. The Mean Green rank 64th in points per possession (PPP) at the rim defensively, per ShotQuality, while the Bulldogs rank 109th. North Texas should often stop the Bulldogs inside.

The Bulldogs can crash the glass. They rank 72nd in offensive rebounding and 26th defensively. North Texas ranks 38th and 228th, respectively. These stats say that Mississippi State may have some second chances on offense. However, North Texas may not.

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North Texas ranks 356th in Adjusted Tempo. It utilizes 19.4 seconds per possession on offense and 18.7 seconds per possession on defense. These are two of the slowest marks in college basketball.

Adding on, they rank 163rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, while ranking 32nd defensively.

One major issue this season for the Mean Green has been 2-point shooting. They're hitting only 46.9% from inside the arc. They rank 121st in points per possession at the rim, per ShotQuality. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs rank 25th in PPP defensively, so they should limit the Mean Green inside.

North Texas is shooting over 37% as a team from downtown. The Bulldogs are restricting opponents to only 27.7% from deep. Mississippi State ranks 184th in Open 3 Rate on defense, while UNT ranks 48th offensively. This could mean the Mean Green will get their points from outside when necessary.

Both of these teams do well in transition. UNT ranks 31st in transition PPP offensively. Mississippi State ranks 68th offensively.

Defensively, the Mean Green are holding opponents to the 24th-fewest transition PPP, while the Bulldogs rank 128th. This is another area the Mean Green can exploit.

On the other hand, the Mean Green slow the ball down in most cases, so the tempo shouldn't be sped up much by transition opportunities.

These are exceptional defenses who should showcase their worth. Yes, North Texas can hit 3s and turn opponents over, but Mississippi State has a strong inside presence.

The pace of both offenses should loom large, so there shouldn't be too many possessions in aggregate.

Take the under in this game, and play it down to 124.

Pick: Under 126 (Play to 124)

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