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National Championship Game Betting Cheat Sheet: Odds, Picks, Analysis, Trends for Virginia vs. Texas Tech

Apr 08, 2019 6:48 PM EDT
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Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Virginia Cavaliers guard Kyle Guy (5).

Trying to cram for the national championship game and need all your info in one place? Look no further.

We’ve compiled the best snippets from all our previews and analysis of Virginia vs. Texas Tech, which tips at 9:20 p.m. ET on Monday night on CBS.

National Championship Game Odds, Picks, Analysis

National Championship Game Betting Guide

This is a market overreaction to another fortunate Virginia win and another impressive Texas Tech cover and win.

Books were right to open at -1.5 and -1 because folks are betting Tech, but the lookahead line was 3.5 headed into the Final Four — yes, low limits — and I personally make it UVA -3.2.

Remember that the market closed Michigan State -2 against Texas Tech. This is implying that Sparty would be favored by a half a point over UVA on a neutral court now, which I don’t buy.

I just don’t think you can adjust this game more than a half point from what happened this past Saturday. — Stuckey

Check out more expert analysis and our favorite bets for Virginia-Texas Tech.

Stuckey’s Title Game Breakdown

Look, I thought the line was incorrect when it first came out, but I was mistaken. It’s a good line based on the action I’ve seen Tech take on.

But there’s still a major discrepancy to my true number, which is why I had to play the Hoos. Yes, they’ve been lucky at the end of games, but they’ve also been unlucky in regards to 3-point shooting on both ends.

I’m playing this game purely from a numbers perspective. But it’s hard not to think this Virginia team has something special going. You can’t use perceived “destiny” to really handicap a game, but it just seems like it might be UVA’s year. Stuckey

Read Stuckey’s full breakdown of Monday’s championship game.

Our Staff’s Favorite Bets

While the full game under is close to the KenPom projection of 119, it is the first-half under that I like even more. Virginia and Auburn had a first-half total of just 59 points in a game that had a much faster pace than the national title game.

Texas Tech and Michigan State had their worst drought of scoring the last 10 minutes of the first half, getting just 14 total points up on the board. There will be plenty of jitters in the opening minutes of the national championship game.

Both teams will play a tight defense in the paint, forcing shots from more than 10 feet with little time left on the shot clock. Collin Wilson

Get the rest of our staff’s favorite bets here.

Freedman’s Favorite Props

Virginia F Mamadi Diakite: Over 7.5 Points (-110)

The man in the middle of the Cavaliers offense, Diakite is just fourth on the team with 7.4 points on 21.7 minutes per game, and he scored only two points two days ago against Auburn.

He hardly inspires confidence with his recent performance.

But in the NCAA Tournament, he’s averaged 33.6 minutes per game with at least 27 minutes in each contest. With his enhanced playing time, he’s put up 10.8 points per game.

In his nine games this year with 27-plus minutes, Diakite has averaged 10.2 points. I have him projected for 10.1.

I’d bet over 7.5 to -145. Matthew Freedman

See all of Freedman’s favorite props here.

2 Betting Systems for Monday

Defense is often undervalued by the public, as casual bettors tend to overlook teams following strong defensive showings in the tournament. That is a mistake.

Since 2005, teams that held their previous opponent to fewer than 60 points have gone 224-178-10 (55.7%) against the spread in their next game during March Madness.

With defense being undervalued, oddsmakers are less likely to inflate the lines, making it easier for defensive teams to cover.

Underdogs following a great defensive game are the best bets. Texas Tech limited Michigan State, which had averaged 77.6 points per game (48th in nation), to 51 points in their Final Four meeting.

A first-time champion will be crowned on Monday night. With a slow pace and strong defense, Texas Tech looks like the team that will cut down the nets based on these betting systems. John Ewing

Get more betting systems with Bet Labs.

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