The NC State Wolfpack take on the SMU Mustangs in Dallas, Texas. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
NC State is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. The total is set at 161.5 points.
Here’s my NC State vs. SMU predictions and college basketball picks for February 3, 2026.
NC State vs SMU Prediction
My Pick: SMU ML +120
My NC State vs SMU best bet is on the Mustangs to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
NC State vs. SMU Odds
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 161.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 161.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
- NC State vs SMU spread: NC State -2.5
- NC State vs SMU over/under: 161.5 points
- NC State vs SMU moneyline: NC State -140, SMU +120
NC State vs SMU College Basketball Betting Preview
NC State Basketball
NC State enters another road game on absolute fire. The Wolfpack are winners of four straight games and are 16-6 overall and 7-2 in ACC play.
The one thing the Pack have done well is win road ACC games (five total).
In January, over eight games, the Wolfpack found their offensive footing, ranking 12th in offensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik. During that stretch, NC State was shooting an incredible 42% from deep.
The emergence of Paul McNeil Jr. has been huge. He's a pure sniper, connecting on 42% of his 3s, and he just hit six in his last game. Fellow guard Tre Holloman is also shooting over 40% from deep, as is forward Darrion Williams.
During their hot stretch, the Pack are shooting just 50% on 2s, ranking outside the top 220 nationally. It's been all about perimeter shooting, which makes you question how sustainable this hot streak really is.
Williams has been a huge cog in NC State's hot offensive run, scoring 17+ points in three of his last four games.
Defensively, I'm not very sold on NC State — it allowed 1.05 points per possession or more in three of its past four games, but due to its offensive dominance, it hasn't mattered.
On the season, NC State ranks 274th in defensive free-throw rate, 144th in 2-point field goal defense and 33% in 3-point defense, per KenPom.
Somehow, the Pack are 37th in defensive efficiency. I'd chalk that to the Pack's dominance on the boards, as teams grab offensive boards just 27% of the time.
SMU Basketball
The Mustangs are 15-6 overall and 4-4 in league play, but they've come to much better results in Dallas. SMU snagged a big home win over UNC and has another chance to add another against another team from the Triangle.
The Stangs can be a very isolation-heavy offense. Boopie Miller is a stone-cold baller, posting 19.4 points per game while shooting 46% from the field. He's also a winning passer, dishing 6.6 assists per game, but he wants to score when it matters.
SMU has two other guards who average 15+ points a night: Jaron Pierre Jr. and B.J. Edwards. Each of the two shoot better than 45% from the field, and Edwards adds five assists per game.
In this matchup, SMU has to involve the bigs. Samet Yigitoglu boasts a huge size advantage over NC State's starting center Ven-Allen Lubin. The 7-foot-2 Yigitoglu adds 10 points and eight rebounds per game.
He'll be spelled by a talented freshman Jaden Toombs, who averages 7.6 points. That duo could dictate if SMU pulls off a big win over NC State.
Here's the thing about SMU's defense: Is it good? Absolutely not. It ranks 74th in defensive efficiency. However, I think it could be good for this game. The Mustangs get crushed inside the arc, as opponents shoot 52% on 2s, but NC State won't really look to expose that.
Against the Mustangs' defense, opponents shoot 3s on 46% of field goal attempts. You best believe that NC State will look to take advantage of that.
NC State vs. SMU Betting Analysis
I'm taking the Mustangs here. Neither team is good on the defensive end, but nobody is good enough to shoot better than 42% from deep.
The Pack have some good shooters, but I don't see it remaining this good, and I expect some regression to come.
Plus, SMU shoots 56% from inside the arc. That should work well against the Pack's lousy interior defense.
The guards can get free against NC State's guards and attack in the mid-range, and the bigs can use their size to their advantage.
I'll take the home team at plus money.
My Pick: SMU ML +120
