Duquesne vs Illinois: College Basketball Predictions, Picks and Odds for Saturday’s NCAA Tournament

Keith Dambrot's coaching career continues for another game after his Dukes stunned six-seeded BYU in the first round of the NCAA tourney.

They'll face the surging Illinois Fighting Illini for a spot in the Sweet 16.

I'll be honest.

I didn't think Duquesne deserved an 11-seed and thought BYU could run it off the floor.

Instead, the Dukes limited BYU's elite offense to 1.00 PPP on 8-for-24 (33%) shooting from downtown. Duquesne jumped off to an early lead and led by as many as 14 points in the second half.

Duquesne's toughness team is palpable. You could see this Duquesne team is playing for something bigger than just a single game: Sending coach Dambrot off into the sunset on a positive note.

Posting an elite effort is nothing new for Duquesne, which ranks 29th nationally in Defensive Efficiency.

The Dukes put a lot of pressure on the ball, forcing turnovers on 19% of possessions (48th nationally). Jimmy Clark III boasts the 11th-best steal percentage in college hoops, and he won the Dukes' first-round game, fittingly, on a steal.

Moreover, Duquense has won nine straight games, allowing more than 70 points only once. That defensive performance against BYU isn't an anomaly — it's what you can expect from the Dukes.

It's a different story on the offensive end.

The Dukes rank 157th in Offensive Efficiency and rely too heavily on 3-point shooting. Dae Dae Grant leads the offensive charge, averaging 16.7 points on 38% shooting and 33% from 3. Grant is streaky but can get hot quickly if his first shot falls.

Earlier on, Illinois looked in danger of falling short to Morehead State in the first round.

Illinois led by just one point at the half, as Morehead State frequently broke down the Illini defense on the perimeter.

Then, Illinois happened.

The Illini have spurtability that only UConn can rival. When it gets rolling, the Illinois offense can score close to 50 points in a single half, scoring 46 points in an eventual rout of the Eagles.

Terrence Shannon Jr., unsurprisingly, scored 26 points on 9-for-16 shooting. He's a tough guard since his driving makes you foul or allow him to score. He puts so much pressure on the rim and drives with a purpose.

The surprising part is that Dain Dainja scored 21 points on 9-for-9 shooting against Morehead, most of which came in the second half. The emergence of the 7-footer opens up Illinois' offense on the interior and moves Coleman Hawkins to the four.

Finding a suitable fifth starter has been a concern for Illinois all year, so getting real production from Dainja changes Illinois' outlook.

Illinois boasts the second-best ranked offensive in America, per KenPom. The Fighting Illini don't have an offensive weakness — they have a steady point guard with Marcus Domask, who tallied the 11th triple-double in tournament history, steady perimeter shooting (35% from 3) and a bonafide star.

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The Illini were gifted a fortuitous matchup in the Second Round.

They'll speed up Duquesne, and I really can't see the Dukes' offense being good enough to keep it close.

BYU felt like a KenPom darling all year that didn't look as good as the metrics thought.

Illinois feels like the opposite end of the spectrum — a legitimate title contender that KenPom doesn't love.

Pick: Illinois -10

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