Colgate vs Baylor Odds, Pick & Prediction: How to Bet Friday’s College Basketball Battle

If you're a fan of the Colgate Raiders or simply someone who loves rooting on the little guys in March, you're desperate for Matt Langel and company to get over the hump and win an NCAA tournament game.

Colgate has played in each of the last four NCAA tournaments, yet hasn't been able to collect a victory. Their challenge this year is as tough as ever, facing the big bad Baylor Bears out of the Big 12 Conference.

Let's dive into the Colgate vs Baylor odds and make a prediction for in our March Madness betting guide for Friday, March 22.

This marks five straight NCAA tournaments with Colgate participating, a massive achievement for any school. It speaks to just how great of a job Langel has done, putting him firmly on the list for bigger programs to poach.

In those four prior appearances, Colgate hasn't stolen a win and is 2-2 ATS. Even in those two closer games, Colgate never really came close to an upset.

In 2022, the Raiders led Wisconsin by five in the second half before surrendering a late charge that let the Badgers win by a semi-comfortable seven points.

Compared to those four prior Colgate teams, this year's edition feels like the least likely to pose a threat as a Cinderella. These Raiders have the worst KenPom ranking of the five, largely due to a major step backward by the Patriot League, which saw its worst collective KenPom ranking ever this season.

Out of conference, Colgate played three power-conference foes, losing three times. The Raiders scared a mediocre Syracuse team, but they were routed by the two powers they faced in December, losing by an average of 22 points to Arizona and Illinois.

Langel's offense, in theory, features shifty point guard Braeden Smith as a slasher, with big men Jeff Woodward and Keegan Records working as screeners or in post-ups, all aided by deadeye shooters dotting the perimeter.

This Colgate team doesn't shoot the ball quite to the level of recent Raiders teams of the past. In 2021, 2022 and 2023, Colgate hit better than 40% of its 3s and ranked in the top three nationally in 3-point shooting.

These Raiders are no slouches — ranking 80th in the country and best in the Patriot League — but that drop-off changes everything on the floor in terms of gravity and spacing.

Woodward and Records are legit 6-foot-10 big men with post moves, which can wreck havoc in a low-major conference. Against power-conference size and strength, Colgate can't expect much scoring in the paint.

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Editor's Note: Baylor's Langston Love (ankle) is out for this weekend's NCAA Tournament games and is doubtful for the rest of March Madness, according to Jon Rothstein.

The Bears have been relatively under the radar this season, playing in the brutal Big 12. Regular season champ Houston, conference tournament champ Iowa State and blue blood Kansas soak up a lot of the conference's attention, leaving the messy middle of the pack fighting for your eyeballs and praise.

Baylor deserves a ton of credit for a strong regular season, which is a few "sliding doors" moments away from greatness. The Bears went 11-7 in America's toughest conference, and their record doesn't speak to how strong this team is.

Those seven losses include three overtime defeats, plus road losses at the brutal environments of Texas, BYU, Texas Tech and Kansas — all single digit seeds in this tournament. By KenPom's numbers, no one in college basketball played a tougher schedule than Baylor.

The Bears were able to fight their way through that gauntlet on the backs of a top-10 offense. Scott Drew hands the keys over to fifth-year senior RayJ Dennis, formerly of Boise State and Toledo.

He's given tons of room to operate, thanks to a trio of 40+% 3-point shooters on the perimeter, and a legitimate one-and-done rim-running big man inside, Yves Missi.

Defense is a step worse for Baylor, though that end of the floor is more filled with yellow flags than red ones. Few teams would call the NCAA tournament a step down in competition, but given Baylor's slate this season, that's going to be the case for at least the first weekend.

Keep a watchful eye on how that defense holds up against Colgate and in a potential second round matchup if you're trying to envision a deep run for the Bears.

One last thing to monitor: guard Langston Love has played just twice in Baylor's last 11 games. He was a game-time decision throughout the Big 12 tournament, so you'd likely see him return here, raising the ceiling of that Baylor offense.

Just because this Colgate team is the least likely of the five recent Raiders teams to go dancing to pull off an upset doesn't mean it can't or won't. That's why we play the games!

Yet it's not just the step down in overall play that concerns me about Colgate's chances to threaten Baylor, it's more about the lack of top-line elite shooting and a gap in athleticism that worries me.

Add in a hungry, dangerous opponent like Baylor, and the odds seem extra stacked against the Raiders.

Maybe against a less athletic team, Colgate could have a chance in a shooting contest. If they swapped 3 seeds and had Creighton instead, I'd be intrigued by its chance to catch the Bluejays on a cold shooting night.

The Bears won't offer that opportunity and should keep this one out of reach.

Pick: Baylor -14 or Better

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