NCAA Basketball Tournament Odds, Pick for Yale vs Auburn

When first scanning the bracket and looking for your upset picks, your eyes should drift toward the Ivy League champion year after year. Of the last 11 Ivy League teams to make the tourney, five won their first-round game, two made the Sweet 16, and three more lost by five or fewer points.

The nation's most prestigious universities continuously overperform in March, especially when the league has performed well enough to avoid playing a top seed. Since 2010, Ivy League teams seeded 15 or lower are 12-6 ATS with seven outright wins.

There's a mix of reasons this is true. Ivy League players typically aren't as transfer-happy as others, meaning teams in the conference are older and more cohesive. You also can't discount the coaching factor – with several of the Ivy's coaches among the best game-planners in college hoops.

That's true this year, with James Jones and his Yale Bulldogs returning to the NCAA Tournament for the third time since 2016. Yale was awarded a decent seed but not a friendly face in the draw. The Auburn Tigers enter the tourney ranked fourth in Adjusted Efficiency Margin by KenPom as they are on a six-game winning streak after winning the SEC Tournament.

Can the Ivy League's magic dash Auburn's Final Four dreams?

In many ways, Yale does not look like or play like a typical Cinderella team, and that has its pros and cons.

We'll start with the cons. Usually, teams that pull off an upset or two play slowly and shoot a high volume of 3s to increase variance. Fewer possessions for the favored team allow a hot shooting night from the underdog to make the difference.

Yale plays on the slower side, but the Bulldogs offense is much more focused on the interior. No Ivy League team scored more of their points on 2-point buckets than Yale.

When the Bulldogs were successful, it was more built on the defensive end, where Yale led the Ivy in efficiency. A versatile group of wings and guards allow Yale to force tough shots and get much-needed stops.

Against tougher, more talented competition, Yale's defense expectedly had a tougher go. Gonzaga scored 1.23 points per possession against the Bulldogs, with Kansas not far behind at 1.17. Star Jayhawks forward Kevin McCullar toasted Yale for 34 points in that meeting.

On the plus side of the coin, Yale's success in the paint offensively was driven by seven-foot sophomore center Danny Wolf. He's grown into a star for the Bulldogs, offering size and skill few mid-major bigs possess.

Wolf is surrounded by one of the most experienced groups in this tournament. The quartet of Matt Knowling, Bez Mbeng, August Mahoney and John Poulakidas have been together on the Yale roster for three full seasons, making up 80% of the starting lineup the last two years.

The Bulldogs, even if overmatched, will be unflappable. In those games against Gonzaga and Kansas, Yale stepped into two of the toughest atmospheres in the nation and built double-digit first-half leads.

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When you squint at some numbers, it's hard to understand how Auburn found its way to only a 4-seed in this tournament. KenPom has the Tigers not as a 4-seed, but the fourth-best team in the country.

Bruce Pearl has orchestrated one of the nation's top defense, leading college hoops in Effective Field Goal Percentage Allowed. Opponents are hitting under 30% from long range against Auburn and a dismal 42.8% inside the arc, which leads the nation.

Johni Broome, a one-time Morehead St. transfer, may be the best defensive big in the tournament as he has done an excellent job protecting the rim and cleaning the glass. He's surrounded by a group of athletic wings and guards who force action into the reliable Broome in the paint.

Offensively, the Tigers are also ranked in the top 10 nationally as they have a balanced and unselfish attack.

Broome is the leading scorer, but young guards Tre Donaldson and Aden Holloway create looks off the dribble. The Tigers also have three wings in Denver Jones, Chad Baker-Mazara and Jaylin Williams who are each hitting over 40% from deep, as they hope opponents help off onto Broome or a driver.

The cherry on top is that this team is deep, playing the eighth-most bench minutes in the country.

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The Ivy League's penchant for upsets has to be considered, yet it's hard to see a path for Yale to stay competitive for 40 minutes here.

Yale's biggest advantage in conference play and against other mid-majors was the ability to play through Wolf on the block. Against Auburn, that won't be the case.

Broome is one of the best post defenders in college hoops and should be trusted to get stops when the ball gets tossed into Wolf. Without that inside-to-outside component, it's hard to see Yale finding enough quality shots to keep pace with the Tigers.

If you're looking for some March fun here, Yale is worth a flier on the Race to 15. The Bulldogs cashed that at Kansas and Gonzaga as they clearly came out with an offensive game plan that worked.

Pick: Yale Race to 15 (+210) | Auburn -12.5