The New Mexico Lobos take on the VCU Rams in Richmond, VA. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
VCU is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -575. The total is set at 153.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico vs. VCU prediction and college basketball picks for December 10, 2025.
New Mexico vs VCU Prediction
My Pick: Over 153.5
My New Mexico vs VCU best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
New Mexico vs. VCU Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | +425 |
| VCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | -575 |
- New Mexico vs VCU spread: VCU -9.5
- New Mexico vs VCU over/under: 153.5 points
- New Mexico vs VCU moneyline: New Mexico +425, VCU -575
New Mexico vs VCU College Basketball Betting Preview
New Mexico Basketball
New Mexico made a very popular hire in former UC San Diego coach Eric Olen. It began a bit rocky, as New Mexico started 3-2 with a rivalry loss to New Mexico State. However, since then, New Mexico has rattled off four straight wins, including ones over Mississippi State and Santa Clara.
The Lobos' offense, which ranks just 108th in KenPom's offensive efficiency, is the catalyst for the recent surge. They scored 1.10 PPP or more in each of the four wins, including a dazzling 1.36 against Santa Clara (they also shot 24-of-35 from inside the arc in that one).
One of the integral parts of the Lobos' offense is scoring off turnovers. They boast a 21.3% turnover rate, which gets their offense into gear.
New Mexico attempts 3s at a 44% rate, but it connects on just 33% of them. However, the Lobos shoot a stout 55.8% on 2s.
New Mexico forced Santa Clara into 15 turnovers, and it also forced the Broncos into shooting 44 3s. The reason I'm putting such an emphasis on that game is that it's the best team on New Mexico's schedule to date, and the game plan couldn't have gone better for Olen and his staff.
Moreover, teams shoot 3s at a 54% rate against New Mexico, which is the second-highest in the country. The Lobos hold teams to just 30% shooting from 3, so possessions that end in a turnover or a 3 typically turn into a win.
On the downside, New Mexico can get thrashed by teams that get the ball to the hoop, as opponents shoot 54% from inside the arc (261st nationally).
The Lobos have five players who average 11+ points per game, and three of the five are freshmen.
Jake Hall, a 6-foot-4 guard, leads New Mexico with 13 points, while big man Tomislav Buljan checks in with 12 points and 11 rebounds an evening. Finally, the speedy Uriah Tenette averages 11 points off the bench.
That trio will have to be locked in heading into a very tough environment.
VCU Basketball
It's another year for VCU with a new head coach, and like clockwork, the Rams look like A-10 contenders. They're 6-3, with their losses coming to Utah State, NC State and Vanderbilt. There's no shame in losing those games, especially against NC State on the road.
The Rams' bread-and-butter is their defense, as they rank 15th nationally in defensive efficiency. I tend to trust defensive teams that force turnovers and limit teams from scoring inside the arc, and the Rams are great at both, holding teams to 44.8% on 2s and forcing turnovers at a 19.8% clip.
Offensively, VCU will look to make New Mexico pay when it opts to gamble for steals. The Rams shoot 3s on 46.7% of their shots and hit 35.8% on them. Their leading scorer is Terrence Hill Jr., a sniper who drills 51% from downtown.
From a tempo standpoint, the Rams will look to push it even more than New Mexico, as they sit 59th in adjusted tempo.
In this one, I'd expect a lot of possession. Both teams want to play fast and want to force turnovers. That'll lead to a fair amount of possessions.
New Mexico vs. VCU Betting Analysis
I'm eyeing the total. I know both teams rely on defense, but they're carbon copies of one another. The biggest difference is that VCU can take advantage of how many 3s the Lobos allow.
You can't let this VCU team launch triples, as teams typically do against New Mexico.
Plus, with how aggressive VCU is defensively, fouling is an issue. The Rams are 244th in KenPom's FTA/FGA metric, and New Mexico gets to the line often.
I think VCU scores in the mid-to-high 80s, and New Mexico does just enough to push the total over late.
My Pick: Over 153.5
