Northwestern vs. UConn Fair Market Odds: Where is Value?

Northwestern vs. UConn Projected Odds

With a Northwestern win on Friday afternoon, they would reserve the right to face the No. 1 overall seeded UConn in the Round of 32 from the Barclays Center on Sunday.

That’s, of course, assuming that Stetson doesn’t pull off an all-time upset over UConn as a No. 16 seed. And Northwestern needs to beat FAU first.

For a potential Northwestern vs. UConn matchup, the Huskies are massive favorites. Considering their disparities according to the advanced metrics and the eye test, it tracks.

Our head of predictive analytics and all-time great college basketball handicapper Sean Koerner has developed an algorithm for every potential March Madness matchup.

In Northwestern vs. UConn, the Huskies figure to be -530 favorites on the moneyline as a fair market price. Conversely, Northwestern clocks in as a staggering +530 underdog.

That means, of course, that if Northwestern’s best market price is above +530 or UConn’s best-market ML is below -530, there’s value.

On the spread, Koerner projects this matchup at UConn -12.5. Northwestern’s fair price gifts them 12.5 points for Sunday’s game.

Again, the same principles apply. Should UConn be priced at -11.5 on open, for instance, there’s value to be gleaned.

And on the total, this contest projects at 139 points.

Make sure to shop around for the best market lines. The difference between a -500 and -450 might not seem like much — but the margins are astronomical over the long run. And in situations with limited edge — like with a March Madness moneyline — every extra percentage point counts.