Northwestern vs Purdue Odds, Pick: Revenge Incoming?

In its long, challenging history, Northwestern has only appeared in the NCAA Tournament twice. Both of those bids, including last season, came under current coach Chris Collins.

Once a long-suffering program, could the Wildcats go dancing in back-to-back years?

A sweep of a likely 1-seed in Purdue would surely make Northwestern a heavy favorite to do so. The Wildcats already knocked off Purdue in Evanston in overtime back on Dec. 1, handing the Boilermakers their first loss of the season.

A sweep is much easier said than done, though. Purdue has been dominant of late, winning five straight games by an average of 18.4 points per contest. Though they trail Wisconsin by a game in the Big Ten standings, the Boilermakers are still a -375 favorite to win the conference at BetMGM.

League-wide trends predict an uphill battle for Northwestern, too. Through Monday’s action, Big Ten home teams are 36-25-2 against the spread this year in league play, per BetLabs. They also went a staggering 80-56-1 ATS last year.

So does Northwestern, who also beat Purdue last year, have Purdue’s number? Or will the Boilermakers reverse recent head-to-head fortunes?

The strength of this Northwestern team is its backcourt, where Boo Buie is arguably the best guard in the league.

A true floor general, Buie masterfully balances his responsibilities as both a scorer and creator. He can make tough shots, or use his clever pace and veteran savvy to set teammates up for open looks.

The Wildcats’ lineup gives him plenty of passing options. Ty Berry, Ryan Langborg and Brooks Barnhizer are all lethal from deep. With that trio on the floor around Buie, Northwestern’s spacing is tremendous, frustrating even the best defenses.

Led by Buie, Northwestern also has the lowest turnover rate in the conference. The Wildcats maximize possessions – and they need to, because they are a poor rebounding squad.

In Big Ten play, Northwestern ranks 14^th (last) in offensive rebounding rate and 13^th in defensive rebounding rate. Physical foes can bully Northwestern’s thin frontcourt and guard-heavy rotation. Indeed, Purdue obliterated Northwestern on the glass in the first meeting, out-rebounding the Cats 52 to 27.

Matthew Nicholson is Northwestern’s primary interior presence, but all three of the Wildcats’ centers struggle with fouling. Unsurprisingly, Purdue took 41 free throws in the December clash.

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It’s no secret who Purdue wants to play through. Zach Edey, likely to repeat as National Player of the Year, is a force near the rim, and his 35-point, 14-rebound performance against Northwestern last time out indicates his potential against the Wildcats' meager frontline.

Matt Painter is quite smart with how he sets up Edey for success. Rather than just parking him on the block, he moves Edey inside and out for ball screens and dribble handoffs, allowing him to roll into post-up positions against shuffling defenses. Point guard Braden Smith has made a living feeding the big man off such actions.

Edey demands a ton of attention, so the Boilermakers’ supporting cast must hit open shots when they present themselves. Purdue shot just 5-of-19 in Evanston, while Northwestern buried 10 if its 20 triples.

Fortunately, Purdue shoots significantly better at home. Per Bart Torvik, the Boilers make 43.7% of their threes at home, compared to 36.4% in road or neutral games.

Statistically, Purdue’s biggest weakness is its defense’s inability to turn teams over. The Boilermakers rank just 323^rd nationally in defensive turnover rate (KenPom), and that caught up to them in the initial defeat at Northwestern. The Boilermakers forced a paltry three miscues in that entire 45-minute game.

Yes, Northwestern has beaten Purdue twice in a row, but both of those games were in Evanston. This will be the first meeting in West Lafayette since Jan. 23, 2022, in which Purdue won by 20.

The areas where Purdue dominated in the December matchup – on the glass and getting to the charity stripe – should again be massive advantages on Wednesday night. Edey is simply too much for Nicholson and the Northwestern frontcourt to handle, not to mention Trey Kaufman-Renn and Mason Gillis battering the Wildcats’ smaller forwards.

Pair those edges with better perimeter shooting at home, and this could turn into a blowout. Even Northwestern’s sure-handed ball control may take a hit in the hostile Mackey Arena environment.

It’s only a small bonus that Big Ten home teams have been so dominant against the number this year. To me, this is Purdue’s game, and I will also be betting some Purdue first half whenever that line drops.

Pick: Purdue -12.5 (Bet to Purdue -15) | Purdue 1H (Bet to Purdue -9)