The Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the Stanford Cardinal in Stanford, CA. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Stanford favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a price of 71 cents to win and the total set at 146.5 points on Fanatics Markets.
Here’s my Notre Dame vs. Stanford predictions and college basketball picks for December 30, 2025.
Notre Dame vs Stanford Prediction
My Pick: Notre Dame +5.5 (Play to +3.5)
My Notre Dame vs Stanford best bet is on the Irish to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Notre Dame vs. Stanford Odds
(If you're unfamiliar with Fanatics Markets, read more here.)
Notre Dame vs Stanford College Basketball Betting Preview
Notre Dame Basketball
As Micah Shrewsberry so eloquently said after Notre Dame lost to Purdue Fort Wayne on December 21, there will be no Christmas for him.
We'll see if Shrewsberry grinding film instead of opening gifts will lead to better results for the Irish.
With star point guard Markus Burton out with an injury, Notre Dame will have to slow things down and win defensively.
The Fighting Irish are 66th in defensive efficiency. The biggest defensive strength for Notre Dame is forcing teams to take tough 2s, holding teams to a 48% 2-point percentage.
I'm keeping an eye on freshman Jalen Haralson on both ends. The 6-foot-7 forward has handled the ball more with Burton's injury. The five-star recruit scored 20+ points in three of four games without Burton and added multiple assists in each duel.
Positional size is a huge strength of Notre Dame — all five starters are 6-foot-4 or taller, and three are 6-foot-7 or taller.
Notre Dame has two main sources of scoring. The main one of late is Haralson attacking to his left. The other source is shooting, as the Fighting Irish hit 37% from deep. When a team has a pair of marksmen — such as Cole Certa and Braeden Shrewsberry — it forces the defense to stay attached to the arc.
Also, Carson Towt has been terrific for Notre Dame. Towt's brilliance on the boards has vaulted the Fighting Irish to ninth nationally in defensive rebounding rate.
The transfer from Northern Arizona grabbed nine-plus boards against four high-major squads, so he's not just bruising mid-major squads. It'll translate to ACC play.
Stanford Basketball
Stanford might have the most misleading 11-2 record in the country. The Cardinal have three wins over top-100 teams (Saint Louis, Minnesota, Colorado). The two high-major wins on Stanford's resume came against teams that will finish near the bottom of their leagues.
Now, I'll get into some good news: Freshman guard Ebuka Okorie is an absolute stud. The speedy 6-foot-2 guard is fourth in the country with 22.9 points per game and is coming off two 30+ point outings.
On the surface, having an elite player like Okorie is great, but he carries this Stanford team. When Okorie isn't playing well, Stanford probably isn't winning. He went 4-16 in the loss to UNLV and 5-15 in the loss to Seattle.
Offensively, Stanford has a heavy focus on getting to the foul line and shooting 3s. The Cardinal rank 20th in KenPom's FTA/FGA metric, a stat that Okorie plays a big factor in. From downtown, Stanford is connecting on 35% of shots, while taking them on 41% of field goals.
Kyle Smith has changed his approach this season. Stanford is playing faster, hunting for turnovers and getting on the run.
The Cardinal are 86th in adjusted tempo, a much faster pace than Notre Dame. They'll also look to make Notre Dame and its lack of ball-handlers uneasy.
Stanford forces a turnover on 21% of possessions, which is just outside the top-25 nationally.
In this matchup, it would make sense if Stanford pressured even more. Burton is out, and Notre Dame turns the ball over 17% of the time anyway. Stanford will need to make this a full-court game to make life tough on Notre Dame.
Notre Dame vs. Stanford Betting Analysis
I'm taking the points with the road team. Sure, the travel is a bit of a trek from South Bend, Indiana, to Palo Alto, California. However, with or without Burton, Stanford just isn't 5.5 points better than Notre Dame.
From a matchup standpoint, Notre Dame has the edge on the interior. With Towt being an immovable object down low, it could be a tough game for Chisom Okpara. He's the second-leading scorer for Stanford, but shooting 43% from the field as an interior-oriented player is rough.
Notre Dame covering the spread likely comes down to which team controls the tempo. If Stanford is forcing turnovers and getting on the run, it'll have the edge. But in the half-court, Notre Dame can use its height advantage to attack the rim.
I'm banking on Shrewsberry adding the proper adjustments to make this a half-court battle.
My Pick: Notre Dame +5.5 (Play to +3.5)
