Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State Odds & Pick: Betting Value on Monday’s Over/Under
John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Kalib Boone.
- The Oklahoma State Cowboys will take on the Iowa State Cyclones on Monday night for Iowa State's first game in 16 days.
- The Cowboys could be without star Cade Cunningham in the game, while the Cyclones try to shake off rust after their long layoff.
- Kyle Remillard breaks down the game below and explains why he thinks there's value on the total.
Editor’s Note: The Iowa State program announced on Monday night that seven players will miss the team’s game against Oklahoma State. Six players will be inactive due to health and safety protocols.
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State Odds
|Oklahoma State Odds||-2.5|
|Iowa State Odds||+2.5|
|Moneyline||-142 / +120|
|Time | TV||Monday, 9 p.m. ET | ESPN2|
It has been a long season both on and off the court for the Iowa State Cyclones. Now, they hope to take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Monday night.
The Cyclones have had their last four games postponed and aim to take the court in what will be their first game in 16 days.
Due to a COVID-19 outbreak in the Iowa State locker room, the Cyclones’ had to put a pause to all basketball operations starting Jan. 16. A few days later, they allowed two players in the gym at a time, one at each end, to get some shots up. It’s unconfirmed which players have been affected by COVID-19, but more bench players are set to see more playing time in this matchup.
Unfortunately for Oklahoma State, it, too, has dealt with the effects of COVID-19.
With games against Oklahoma and West Virginia postponed, the Cowboys returned to play on Saturday and suffered an 81-66 loss to No. 2 Baylor.
The score in that game is misleading, as Oklahoma State actually led by four at halftime, before being outscored, 49-30, in the second half.
That loss also came without the potential No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, Cade Cunningham, who had to sit out of the game because of COVID-19 precautions.
The Cowboys will miss him in this game — one in which scoring won’t come easy for either team.
Head coach Mike Boynton has the 9-4 Cowboys in the middle of the Big 12 standings with a 3-4 conference record.
This team is led by 6-foot-8 point guard Cunningham, who is the leading scorer in the conference, averaging 17.8 points per game while grabbing 6.2 boards and dishing out 3.8 assists per game.
Boynton has hinted that Cunningham will not be available to play on Monday night, which would be devastating for this offense.
It’s even worse when considering the Cowboys do not have much depth.
They have a short bench and played the last game against Baylor with five players playing 30 or more minutes. It was apparent that those five got tired late, as the Bears ran them out of the gym in the second half. It will be interesting to see if the Cowboys can get their legs back with a quick turnaround in this matchup.
Iowa State has had potentially the toughest season of any team in the country. Having played only nine games this season, it looks to put the worst behind it and end the season on a high note.
The Cyclones sit at 2-7 on the year, with their wins coming against 352nd-ranked Arkansas Pine Bluff and 295th-ranked Jackson State.
Five of Iowa State’s seven losses have come in Big 12 play, where it’s been outscored by an average margin of 16.7 points.
Cunningham is essential for this Oklahoma State offense to run. He’s the point guard leader who can do it all.
He shoots the 3 at a 38.8% clip, hits 45.6% of all field goals, and makes plays off the dribble which frees up his teammates as defenders collapse.
When Cunningham has been on the floor with the Cowboys, they’ve averaged 77.1 points per game. In the one game he missed, Oklahoma State scored just 68 points, which included making 41.7% of its 24 3-point attempts. This offense’s identity is Cunningham, and without him on the floor, it’s not the same.
It’s hard to imagine the Cyclones’ offense as anything but rusty heading into this game.
They’ve gone 16 days without playing a game and had zero team activities throughout that span. Scoring has been a struggle for Iowa State, which averages a measly 68.4 points per game, the third-fewest points in the Big 12.
Similar to Oklahoma State, this is a team that plays just seven players the majority of the game.
Coach Steve Prohm has not confirmed which players were affected by COVID-19 protocols but did say he doesn’t anticipate having a full roster in this matchup. If that includes any of those seven rotation players, the Cyclones will have an even thinner bench than usual.
Another negative is that Iowa State ranks dead last in the country, taking only 10.2 free throw attempts per game and making an average of 7.7 of those from the charity stripe per game.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Oklahoma State isn’t the same team without Cunningham if he’s indeed ruled out of this matchup. That will be good news for Iowa State, which hopes to keep things close to try and secure its first Big 12 win.
I believe that may be a possibility in a game in which scoring will be at a premium with plenty of bench players getting some run for both teams.
My projections have this game at 141.50 with both squads at full strength, so I see tremendous value in the under at 145.5 with uncertainty looming on the Iowa State roster.
Pick: Under 145.5 (down to 142.5).