The Oklahoma State Cowboys (12-1) take on the No. 15 Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-3) in Lubbock, Texas. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Texas Tech is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -800. The total is set at 169.5 points.
Here’s my Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech prediction and college basketball picks for January 3, 2026.
Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech Predictions, Picks
My Pick: Texas Tech -11.5 (Play to -12)
My OK State vs Texas Tech best bet is on the Red Raiders to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Odds, Betting Lines, Total
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -108 | 169.5 -105o / -115u | +550 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -112 | 169.5 -105o / -115u | -800 |
- Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech spread: Texas Tech -11.5
- Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech over/under: 169.5 points
- Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech moneyline: Oklahoma State +550, Texas Tech -800
Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech Game Preview
Oklahoma State Cowboys: Need To Know
Oklahoma State could be in the mix for the NCAA Tournament, but it needs to pick up some quality wins. The Cowboys have just a pair of top-50 victories and no true road wins.
The best ones for the Cowboys are a home victory over Texas A&M and a neutral-site win over Northwestern.
The Cowboys pride themselves on playing fast to put up big point totals, as they rank fifth in adjusted tempo. However, Oklahoma State is just 61st in offensive efficiency, so the lofty scoring totals can be a bit misleading due to its tempo.
The Cowboys don’t shoot a lot of 3s, attempting just 34% of their shots from deep and connecting on 33% of them.
Plus, the Cowboys often fall victim to one-on-one ball. The ball gets stuck a little too often in the half-court, and it can disrupt the offensive flow.
On the defensive end, Oklahoma State can give up some free baskets. It ranks 90th in defensive efficiency and ranks outside the top 100 in 2-point and 3-point field goal percentage. At times, it feels like Oklahoma State plays too fast for its own good, and that affects it on defense.
The Cowboys will rely on dazzling guards Anthony Roy and Vyctorius Miller. Roy adds 17 points per game and shoots 42% from deep, while Miller sits at 15 points a night and hits 50% from downtown.
Another cause for concern is Oklahoma State’s lack of rim deterrence. Nobody on the Cowboys' roster averages a full block per game. Starting center Parsa Fallah is more of an offensive-centric player who can get exposed defensively.
Texas Tech Red Raiders: Need To Know
Just when I thought I was out on Texas Tech’s defense, a gigantic showing against a top-100 Winthrop offense roped me back in.
That’s what held the Red Raiders back early this season. They surrendered 80+ points in all three of their losses to Duke, Purdue and Illinois.
In the final 10 minutes of the Duke game and in the Winthrop matchup, Texas Tech had terrific rim defense. That'll be a pivotal part of this game if the Red Raiders solve the problem.
The Red Raiders have the most fearsome one-two punch in the country with big man JT Toppin and point guard Christian Anderson.
Toppin is so dominant. He averages 21 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, and he can pass out of double teams, too. Anderson is on quite a roll, scoring 25+ points in four of his last five games with five-plus assists in all five.
So with that pair, it’s no surprise the Red Raiders rank 14th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency.
The style of the Texas Tech offense is often playing inside and out. Grant McCasland wants to get Toppin rolling early, and once he does, it opens the floor for the Red Raiders to air it out from deep.
Over 40% of Tech's shots come from 3, and it connects on 37.3% of them.
How To Make Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Picks
What I’m about to say may sound strange, but Texas Tech’s shotmaking should contain Oklahoma State’s offense.
It’s much harder to play the pace the Cowboys want to off of made shots. The Red Raiders can get into their defense and maybe flash some occasional token pressure to make Oklahoma State less free-flowing.
So, I'll lay the points here. I expect Texas Tech to score in the 90-point range and could approach 100.
On the flip side, I really think an experienced, winning coach like McCasland found out how to make his team defend more.
If that holds true, Oklahoma State will be in serious trouble of getting blown out.
Everything favors the Red Raiders here, so this feels like the correct play.
My Pick: Texas Tech -11.5 (Play to -12)
