Betting Old Dominion-UTSA: Can Monarchs Come Through in Revenge Spot?

Betting Old Dominion-UTSA: Can Monarchs Come Through in Revenge Spot? article feature image

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Xavier Green

Just four ranked teams are in action Thursday evening, so let’s take a look at Conference USA. The league wrapped up its regular season on Feb. 16, yet its extended slate is a round-robin tournament — in hopes of having an outside crack at an at-large bid.

First-place Old Dominion (22-6, 12-3) is the conference’s only hope for an at-large selection if it loses in the C-USA tournament. Before that, it travels to UTSA (15-12, 9-5) for the second time this season. The Roadrunners racked up a one-point win and cover (+2) vs. the Monarchs on Jan. 26.

UTSA overcame a 17-point deficit with 3:44 left, as the 6-foot-3 Keaton Wallace capped off the comeback via a 3-pointer with 15 ticks remaining.

Where’s the value in the rematch? Let’s break it down.

Old Dominion Monarchs at UTSA Roadrunners Betting Odds

  • Spread: UTSA -1.5
  • Over/Under: 143
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS Sports Network

>> All odds as of Wednesday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NCAAB odds and win probabilities on your bets.

The Monarchs (12-14-1 against the spread) are 2-3-1 ATS since that dramatic loss while the Roadrunners (15-8 ATS) have gone 3-3 in their following games, including consecutive straight-up losses.

Old Dominion’s advantages start on the glass, where Jeff Jones’ crew owns a significant height edge. In their last matchup, it outrebounded UTSA 45-35 — led by B.J. Stith’s team-high 12 rebounds. The 6-foot-5 wing collected three of the Monarchs’ 10 offensive rebounds, too, helping guide them to the 55th-highest offensive rebounding rate (32.4%) in the country.

With an edge in that department, Old Dominion should be able to control the pace via the 27th-slowest Adjusted Tempo across Division (64.5 possessions per 40 minutes), stopping the Roadrunners from pushing it up and down the floor.

Although UTSA is yielding the fourth-lowest 3-point scoring rate (30.4%) in C-USA play, Stith (18.1 points per game), Ahmad Caver (17.1 ppg) and Xavier Green (8.9 ppg) — ODU’s three leading scorers — combined for eight 3-pointers in the first go-around. The Roadrunners’ interior defense has struggled throughout conference play, allowing the CUSA’s third-highest 2-point rate (52.8%), so expect ODU to create its perimeter looks off the dribble drive once again.

UTSA’s Jhivvan Jackson (22.8 ppg) is lethal off ball screens, especially from behind the arc. But ODU’s Caver is one of the better on-ball defenders in the league and should be able to keep Jackson for torching him and his mates.

If you’re interested in the total, their previous meeting was ticketed for the under before UTSA’s furious comeback, but the over is 4-3 in Old Dominion’s seven conference road games. While Jones’ bunch could keep this one to a lower score because of it’s pace, I’d pass on either side.

According to our Bet Labs data, the Monarchs are a mere 4-10-1 (28.6%) ATS vs. their conference foes this season. But they’ll still notch a revenge cover in San Antonio.

THE PICK: Old Dominion +1.5