Monday is a relatively light day in the sports betting world. We have Redskins-Eagles, seven NBA games and only five college basketball contests.
While recreational bettors are focusing almost exclusively on Monday Night Football and NBA, wiseguys have quietly gotten down on an overlooked college hoops game: Rutgers at Wisconsin (8 p.m. ET).
After breaking down the data using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed which side the sharps are focusing on in this Big Ten conference showdown.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
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Rutgers at Wisconsin
8 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Rutgers (moved from +13 to +12)
This game has all the hallmarks of classic Pros vs. Joes disagreement.
Recreational bettors love getting down on favorites, home teams and teams with better records and rankings. Wisconsin (7-1, ranked 22nd overall) checks off all of those boxes.
However, sharps know that these situations often provide the best value to go the other way and buy low on the opponent, in this case the unranked 5-2 Scarlet Knights.
Wisconsin opened as a 13-point favorite. Despite 64% of bets laying the points, the Badgers have fallen to -12.
Recreational bettors will see this movement and double down on Wisconsin, knowing that they can now get a better number. But seasoned wiseguys know this reverse line movement is a clear indication that Rutgers are the sharp play.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked two steam moves on Rutgers at +13.5 and +12.5. This overload of sharp action forced the oddsmakers to drop the line in favor of the road dog.
Rutgers enjoys a notable smart money discrepancy — it's getting only 36% of bets but a whopping 77% of dollars. This indicates bigger wagers on the road dog, with $5 public bets taking Wisconsin.
The Scarlet Knights also find themselves in a valuable historical spot. According to our Bet Labs software, big road conference underdogs getting double-digits have produced +129.99 units since 2005.
Historically, underdogs in conference games perform much better against the spread than underdogs in non-conference games, as the built in familiarity and rivalry angle provides an increased edge, especially when getting big points.
