NCAAB Odds, Pick for Saint Louis vs VCU

VCU and Saint Louis will meet on the hardwood at the Siegel Center for a crucial Atlantic 10 conference matchup Friday night.

The Rams have won back-to-back league games to improve to 10-7 overall and 2-2 in conference play. Meanwhile, the Billikens have struggled after a decent start, losing three of four conference contests to sit at 8-9 on the season.

To open the year, Saint Louis rattled off four straight victories, including wins over Wyoming and Illinois State. However, coach Travis Ford’s team has since lost nine of its last 13.

The Billikens can’t point to the offensive end of the floor for their struggles. They come into this matchup ranked 31st in 3-point shooting and 79th in AdjO, according to BartTorvik. The key contributor on offense has been Gibson Jimerson. The redshirt junior guard has led the team in scoring the last two seasons, and he is on pace to do it again at 16.9 points per game.

If he keeps up his current averages, Jimerson could hold the school record from beyond the arc and break into the top five of the program’s top scorers by the end of the season.

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After leading UMBC and Utah State to the NCAA Tournament, coach Ryan Odom took over this VCU program in the offseason.

But Odom wasn’t the only new face for this team. Along with a new coaching staff, the Rams' roster features eight newcomers, including seven transfers. VCU had to replace its top seven scorers from last season’s Atlantic 10 Championship team.

Despite all the changes, VCU has shown glimpses of success. It defeated Penn State at the ESPN Events Invitational after losses to Iowa State and Boise State by a combined eight points. The Rams also took a nationally ranked Memphis team to overtime in their non-conference slate.

One of the key newcomers to the program, who followed Odom from Utah State, is Max Shulga. The senior guard leads the team with 15.3 PPG, and he’ll need another big performance in this spot.

If you were to look at the metrics for these two teams, multiple stats point to this being a low-scoring affair. However, I like the home team to put up some points in this contest. My best bet is for VCU to fly over its team total of 79 or better.

Over the Rams' last six home games, this bet would have cashed four times, with VCU averaging 82.5 points per game in those contests.

Meanwhile, this bet also relies on Saint Louis’ weak defense. Of the Billikens’ eight road games, only three of their opponents failed to reach this total. This is a defensive unit that ranks 316th in AdjD, 286th in eFG% and 325th in defending shots from inside the arc, according to BartTorvik.

Neither team plays with great pace, but it hasn’t stopped opponents from racking up points on Saint Louis. I like that to continue here against VCU.

Pick: VCU Team Total Over 79 or Better