Stuckey’s Favorite Situational Spots on Saturday’s College Basketball Card

Credit:

Loren Orr/Getty Images. Pictured: Guard Sam Merrill (5) of the Utah State Aggies.

I’m heading New York for the Super Bowl (join us for our party if you’re in the area) and finishing my betting prep, but I did still want to provide my favorite college basketball bet of the day, plus my other favorite Saturday spots as usual.


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2018-19: 47-32-2 (59.5%) 
2019-20: 4-9 (30.8%)

Utah State +7.5: My favorite bet of the day is on the Aggies, who are back on a roll. This team went through a funk early on in conference play as it dealt with a number of injuries to key players, but a now-healthy unit looks like the team I expected preseason and the one that secured neutral court wins over Florida and LSU.

When these two teams met early last month, Utah State was a 2.5-point favorite. SDSU won that game handily, but Neemis Queta (who we didn’t know was going to suit up until a few hours before tip) clearly wasn’t 100%.

SDSU won that game pretty easily and has deserved a bump since as it remains unbeaten, but this line is simply too high.

Back to the Aggies, who I think have a shot at pulling off a huge resume-boosting win and ending SDSU’s undefeated streak.

Michigan PK: This neutral-court affair is a good time to sell high on a Rutgers team that has done almost all of its damage at home at the RAC this year (15-0). The Scarlet Knights only have one win on the road, which came at lowly Nebraska and lost their only neutral court game against St. Bonaventure.

The Wolverines only have one road win as well but had three really impressive neutral court wins against Gonzaga, Oregon and UNC.

I expect an inspired effort from Michigan’s Zavier Simpson at Madison Square Garden after his one game suspension, and I like the Wolverines even if Isaiah Livers can’t go (questionable).

Providence +7.5: Despite being undermanned the past two games without point guard and stellar defender Aaron Thompson, Butler still found a way to pull out two victories. But the Bulldogs were very fortunate in each, as both Marquette and Georgetown melted down in the second half.

Butler did beat Providence earlier this year on the road but I lost count at the amount of layups the Friars missed that game.

Ed Cooley’s bunch matches up very well against Butler as evidenced by their three wins over the Bulldogs last season. Expect a desperate Providence team to keep this close throughout.

NC State +3.5: Talk about a game that could make or break NC State’s season.

The Wolfpack are reeling after consecutive losses to Georgia Tech and UNC. But this team, now fully healthy, is one of the most experienced teams in the nation and you should get a max effort against a Louisville team that might be a little fat and happy at the moment after seven straight wins.

Plus, the Cardinals have some shooting regression coming their way as they’re shooting an unsustainable 43.7% from beyond the arc in conference play.

Louisville will turn the ball over and that could play right into the hands of a desperate NC State team that forces turnovers at a top 20 clip nationally.

Sacramento State -1.5: Eastern Washington is in first place in the Big Sky but has four conference wins by three points or fewer (2, 2, 3, 3).

Sacramento State is a very experienced team and has played much better at home this year. Expect an inspired effort after dropping three of its last four.

The Hornets have been running bad in conference play, so I think you’re getting them slightly undervalued here in a matchup where they should control the glass.

Idaho +11: Hold your nose for this one, as we’re backing a pretty horrid team on the road.

Idaho is 1-7 in conference play but has been fairly competitive in a number of games. They’ve had losing margins of 2, 1, 3, 3 and 4 points.

NAU has won four straight to get to 5-4 in conference but there’s just no way it can keep up its current shooting clip from 3. The Lumberjacks also have first place EWU coming to Flagstaff next, so this is a potentially sleepy spot.

Expect max effort from Idaho after getting absolutely stomped in back-to-back losses at home.

EIU +9: It’s time to fade the most profitable ATS team in the country in Austin Peay. The Governors have been a covering machine all year, specifically at home, where they’re undefeated ATS. They’ve also covered every single game so far in 2020.

EIU has had a number of close losses in conference and actually matches up quite well with the similarly-sized Governors.

I think the very experienced Panthers keep it close in Clarksville against an Austin Peay team that won’t continue to shoot over 42% from 3-point range in conference.

Stanford +2: I’ll take the Cardinal at home off three straight losses by a combined 11 points.

Oregon has been great this season, but three of its last six wins have come in overtime and the Ducks are a little overvalued at the moment.

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