NCAAB Odds, Pick for Tennessee vs Arkansas

Wednesday night features an SEC basketball matchup between Tennessee and Arkansas in Fayetteville.

Tennessee is having a great season but is coming off of a 16-point road loss to Texas A&M. On the other hand, Arkansas is one of the more disappointing teams in the country but enters with momentum after a 78-75 win over Georgia.

Here's NCAAB odds and a pick for Tennessee vs. Arkansas.

Tennessee's performance this season has been characterized by a robust blend of offensive efficiency and defensive solidity. Ranked 15th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, the Volunteers have scored against the best, although their 117th rank in Effective Field Goal percentage (eFG%) suggests some struggles in maximizing shot value.

Their careful handling of the ball, evidenced by their 29th rank in Turnover Rate, and a commendable effort on the offensive boards (64th in Offensive Rebounding Rate) highlight a team that maximizes scoring opportunities while controlling Pace.

Additionally, the Volunteers' Free-Throw Rate and Accuracy indicate an ability to capitalize on opportunities from the line, further bolstering their offensive output.

Defensively, the Volunteers shine even brighter, ranking seventh in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and eighth in eFG% allowed, making them one of the stingiest defenses in the nation. While the Volunteers' turnover generation is relatively average (98th in Turnover Rate), their ability to disrupt shots without fouling stands out.

However, their mediocre Defensive Rebounding Rate and high Free-Throw Rate Allowed indicate potential areas for the Hogs to exploit, particularly on second-chance points.

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Arkansas, on the other hand, enters this matchup with a less consistent profile. Offensively, the Razorbacks are 133rd in Adjusted Efficiency and 204th in eFG%, reflecting challenges in both creating and converting high-quality scoring opportunities. Their Turnover Rate and poor offensive rebounding stats further underscore a team that struggles to maintain possession and convert scoring opportunities.

However, their high Free-Throw Rate (ninth) offers a silver lining, suggesting an aggressive style that could trouble the Volunteers defense if the Razorbacks draw fouls effectively.

Defensively, Arkansas has room for improvement, as indicated by ranking 120th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 132nd in eFG% Allowed. The Razorbacks' inability to generate turnovers (307th) and secure defensive rebounds (176th) could be particularly problematic against a Volunteers team that prides itself on efficiency and control.

Arkansas' high Free-Throw Rate Allowed could also prove costly against a team with a decent Free-Throw Shooting Percentage like Tennessee.

Given the statistical trends and playing at home, Arkansas covering the +9.5 spread appears to be the best bet in the game.

Despite Tennessee's defensive prowess and offensive efficiency, the Razorbacks' high Free-Throw Rate and aggressive style of play present an opportunity to keep the game closer than the spread suggests.

Playing in front of a home crowd could provide the additional momentum needed for Arkansas to exploit Tennessee's few vulnerabilities, particularly defensive rebounding and drawing fouls to capitalize on their high Free-Throw Rate.

This matchup, therefore, is not just a test of Tennessee's ability to impose their game plan on the road but also of Arkansas' capacity to leverage their strengths effectively.

With the Volunteers' slight weaknesses in defensive rebounding and Arkansas's potential to exploit this through an aggressive offensive approach, betting on Arkansas to cover the 9.5-point spread offers the best bet based off statistical insight and narrative-driven analysis. Take the Razorbacks at +9.5 on the spread and cash in on this intriguing SEC clash.

Pick: Arkansas +9.5

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