The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, KY. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kentucky is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 145.5 points.
Here’s my Tennessee vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for February 7, 2026.
Tennessee vs Kentucky Prediction
My Pick: Tennessee ML -105
My Tennessee vs Kentucky best bet is on the Vols to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 145.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 145.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
- Tennessee vs Kentucky spread: Kentucky -1.5
- Tennessee vs Kentucky over/under: 145.5 points
- Tennessee vs Kentucky moneyline: Tennessee -105, Kentucky -115
Tennessee vs Kentucky College Basketball Betting Preview
Tennessee Basketball
Tennessee has certainly turned a corner of late, winning six of its last eight games. However, one of the two losses came to Kentucky, which is Saturday's opponent.
So, what helped the Vols get on track? The emergence of Nate Ament — the five-star freshman — who really struggled early on. Over that eight-game run, Ament scored 17+ points in each game, still getting to the foul line but also shooting well from deep.
Early on, the Vols kept their heads above water offensively thanks to Ja'Kobi Gillespie's scoring and the bigs crashing the glass. Add in Ament, and the ceiling takes a huge jump. Ament can create some real mismatches with his athletic 6-foot-10 frame and ball-handling prowess. It's why he draws so many fouls.
Let's back track to the rebounding. The Vols grab 45% of their misses and can bury teams on the boards. They start multiple bigs in Felix Okpara and J.P. Estrella, with Jaylen Carey pitching in real minutes.
Defense will remain the calling card for Rick Barnes. His team ranks 14th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Vols hold teams to 48% from inside the arc and 29% from deep. However, teams are shooting an almost incomprehensible 56% on 2s against them over their past six games.
What's the real version of Tennessee's defense? I have to lean with the long term results. The number feels like a direct reflection of Georgia shooting 66% and Alabama shooting 59% from inside the arc against the Vols.
Kentucky Basketball
Kentucky is a much different team.
You have to give it credit, though. It looked like a lost cause, and the two biggest portal additions for the Wildcats — Jaland Lowe and Jayden Quaintance — have added nothing due to injury.
The Wildcats have found their offense of late, ranking 33rd in offensive efficiency since January 1, per Bart Torvik.
SEC Preseason Player of the Year Otega Oweh has been a monster in those 10 games, scoring 20+ points in eight of them. Kentucky needed him to be better than ever, and he has.
They've shot it very well from deep in that stretch, rattling in 37% of their 3s. Three of their five starters (Oweh, Collin Chandler and Denzel Aberdeen) are close to 40% shooters from deep.
The other end of the floor is a worry, though. Kentucky is just 81st in its 10 games since January 1. Fouling has been a real sore spot for the Wildcats, sending opponents to the line 39% of the time. Defending the rim without Quaintance hasn't been pretty either, as they're allowing teams to shoot 51.7% on 2s.
Malachi Moreno has filled in nicely. He blocks close to two shots per game, but he's always in foul trouble.
If Brandon Garrison has to play more minutes, that's a boost for the Vols.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Betting Analysis
I think this is a good sell high spot for Kentucky. Can Oweh go off for another 20-25 points? Sure, but that's the only way the Wildcats can feel good about winning this game, even at home.
Tennessee should batter Kentucky on the boards, as the Wildcats have allowed offense boards at a 39% rate in their last eight games.
That would be an easy way to let Tennessee get in and cruise to a road victory.
Also, our Action PRO projections show Tennessee moneyline at -123, giving us a nice B+ grade on this play.
I expect a close game, but I think Kentucky is a bit overrated at this point. Give me the Vols ML.
My Pick: Tennessee ML -105
