Texas A&M vs Alabama Odds & Prediction: Tide to Roll to SEC Title?

Texas A&M vs Alabama Odds & Prediction: Tide to Roll to SEC Title? article feature image

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Alabama’s Mark Sears.

SEC Tournament Championship

Texas A&M vs Alabama Odds

Sunday, March 12
1 p.m. ET
Texas A&M Odds
-110o / -110u
Alabama Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Selection Sunday is here! However, before the participants for the Big Dance are announced, there are still tickets that need to be punched.

In this SEC Tournament title game, we'll get a preview of what a No. 1 seed looks like, as the Alabama Crimson Tide look to cement a tremendous regular season. While this may appear to be a letdown spot, they should be very motivated for this matchup.

As for their opponents, the Texas A&M Aggies were a team I doubted entering this tournament. However, they impressed yesterday by handling the Vanderbilt Commodores in a dominant fashion.

Lastly, we can't forget that the Aggies hold a victory over Crimson Tide. So, can Alabama even the score with conference supremacy on the line? Let's dive in and find out while also uncovering the best bet for this matchup.

Texas A&M vs Alabama Matchup Analysis

Texas A&M put on a shooting clinic yesterday against Vandy. It shot nearly 52% from the field and was money from inside the arc, making over 63% of its 2-point attempts.

While that work from inside the arc is the Aggies' bread and butter, a performance like that is well above the norm for this team. They're undoubtedly due to regress in this matchup, and we could see that drastically against a strong defensive team like Alabama.

The Crimson Tide enter this matchup third in adjusted defensive efficiency and are the No.1 team in the country when it comes to 2-point percentage allowed.

In their only meeting this season, the Aggies were shut down from the field, making just 31% of their shots. However, they found ways to get Brandon Miller, Mark Sears and Charles Bediako into foul trouble.

That bevy of free-throw attempts, combined with Alabama's star being limited by playing through foul trouble, gave A&M an edge. Although, that's unlikely to happen again because the Crimson Tide are an average team when it comes to defensive free-throw rate, and Nate Oats will ensure it doesn't come down to that this time around.

On the other end of the court, the Crimson Tide will have two avenues to offensive success. The first is from the perimeter.

Alabama isn't afraid to pull up from deep, and the Aggies have been willing to allow their opposition to do so this season. However, when it comes to the Crimson Tide's 3-point shooting, it's more about volume than efficiency. The more shots they put up, the worse it could be for Texas A&M.

However, if the Aggies decide to put an emphasis on closing out on the perimeter, Alabama has a significant edge in the paint. It not only has size, but skilled bigs like Miller, Bediako and Noah Clowney all shot over 61% from the paint this season.

Texas A&M vs Alabama Betting Pick & Prediction

All signs point to the Crimson Tide here. I expect them to dominate on the defensive end of the floor and shut down the regressing Aggies.

That will open the door for them to find their offense, as it may take some time for the Aggies to wear down.

In the end, Alabama should put together some extended runs as it evens the score against the A&M, secures the SEC tourney title and covers the spread in the process.

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Daniel Preciado
Jun 20, 2024 UTC