UTEP vs Western Kentucky Odds, Prediction: Why to Bet Tops

Let's take a look at the UTEP Miners vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers odds and make a prediction for Saturday's Conference USA Championship on March 16.

In a tournament known for upsets, the Conference USA hasn't disappointed as No. 3-seeded Western Kentucky meets fifth-seed UTEP in the championship game on Saturday.

The Hilltoppers have cruised, with two wins by 20-plus points each. Meanwhile, the Miners have used dramatic comebacks to secure their place in the finale.

These teams split their regular-season matchups, but I like the Tops to cap off an excellent tournament run with a cover here.

So, my best bet is for WKU to cover the 3.5-point spread, which I would play to -5.

I also don’t hate a look at the Hilltoppers in the first half on either the spread or moneyline.

For starters, I just don’t trust that what UTEP has done will be sustainable. The Miners have been losing by double digits in the second half of both conference tournament games.

Against Sam Houston, the Bearkats shot 20% from the 3-point line and missed 15 free throws as the best shooting team in C-USA from the charity stripe.

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This is still the same UTEP squad that went 3-5 against the spread away from home in conference play. The Miners are also rated in the bottom three in the league by Bart Torvik in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and PPP offensively on the road.

With two teams who play at quick tempos, I don’t see Joe Golding’s team being able to keep up with WKU’s great offense. The Tops have an offensive unit that ranks in top-three in Conference USA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and PPP.

There are going to be two key areas that will ultimately decide who wins the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. It'll come down to which team has more success scoring from inside the arc and turnovers.

Both WKU (31st) and UTEP (82nd) rank inside the top 100 in percentage of points scored from 2-pointers. However, I see a clear edge defensively that points to the Tops.

On the defensive end of the floor, the Hilltoppers rank 114th in percentage of opponents’ points coming from shots inside the arc — compared to UTEP at 200th. Haslametrics also backs this up.

For the year, the Tops have allowed foes to shoot 36.78% from mid-range and over 58% on near-proximity shots. Both numbers are better than the Miners, who've given up 39% in the mid-range and over 63% on near-proximity attempts.

As for the turnovers, this is a key area, as UTEP creates offensive opportunities from steals. Only Iowa State has more potential points off breakaway steals on the season.

Over the last four weeks, WKU is second in C-USA in turnovers given up, and if the Tops can avoid them here, I believe they'll be too much in this title game.

Pick: WKU -3.5 (Play to -5)