The Wake Forest Demon Deacons take on the NC State Wolfpack in Raleigh, NC. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
NC State is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -530. The total is set at 159.5 points.
Here’s my Wake Forest vs. NC State prediction and college basketball picks for December 31, 2025.
Wake Forest vs NC State Prediction
My Pick: Under 159.5 (Play to 158)
My Wake Forest vs NC State best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Wake Forest vs. NC State Odds
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 159.5 -105o / -115u | +385 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 159.5 -105o / -115u | -530 |
- Wake Forest vs NC State spread: NC State -9.5
- Wake Forest vs NC State over/under: 159.5 points
- Wake Forest vs NC State moneyline: Wake Forest +385, NC State -530
Wake Forest vs NC State College Basketball Betting Preview
Wake Forest Basketball
It's been a wild season for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are 9-4 with just a pair of top-100 wins (over Memphis and West Virginia). They squandered two big resume-building chances in one-point losses to Michigan and Texas Tech, so it could use some big road wins in ACC play.
Wake Forest, just like last season, is a defensive-first squad, ranking 52nd in defensive efficiency. The Demon Deacons apply ball pressure, leading to a strong 20% defensive turnover rate.
Another factor of staying tight to the ball is forcing teams to shoot 3s, as 48.6% of opponents' field goals come from deep. They hold teams to 30% from deep, so opponents give the Demon Deacons a boost when they fall into the trap of shooting 3s.
The Demon Deacons look to use the turnovers to get rolling in transition, as they sit 79th in adjusted tempo.
Interior defense is a different story, though. Wake Forest is very small on the interior, and it shows in its 54.3% 2-point field goal percentage.
The big-man tandem of Tre'Von Spillers and Omaha Biliew is underwhelming. Spillers has developed into a trustworthy player who makes up for being a 6-foot-7 center with infectious effort. I don't get why Biliew still plays 23+ minutes per game because doesn't provide much on either end.
This feels worth noting: Wake Forest allowed 80+ points in all four of its losses. Between the pace and poor rim defense, Wake Forest can have some high-scoring games.
In the half-court, Wake Forest is nothing special. It ranks 84th in offensive efficiency and outside the top-100 in 2-point and 3-point percentage.
Shooting is the key for Steve Forbes' squad, as it attempts 3s on 42% of its field goal attempts while connecting on 33% of them.
Juke Harris has struggled of late, shooting below 33% from the field in three straight games. He has to get rolling because the Demon Deacons have some very dicey point guard play, and Harris is the go-to guy for them.
NC State Basketball
NC State has quickly shifted to the Will Wade style of play. Most teams coached by Wade in his LSU days pushed the tempo, and he's back to a fast-tempo team, as NC State plays at the 75th-fastest tempo in America.
What separates this team from most squads in Wade's past is the shooting — over 46% of the Wolfpack's shots come from deep, and they connect at a 36% clip. In Wade's move to Raleigh, he brought a roster that moves the ball better than any unit he's coached.
Before this season, Wade never had a team with a top-100 assist rate nationally. NC State is 87th this season.
At one point this season, NC State looked like a squad that'd need to score 85+ points to beat good opponents after allowing 102 to Texas and 83 to Auburn.
In the next five games, NC State jumped to ninth in defensive efficiency. Teams still shot 3s at a 49% clip against it in that span, but they're shooting 29% on them. Some of that just shows the variance in 3-point defense, but Wade made some defensive changes after the Texas game, and it's paid off.
All five starters for NC State average between 10 and 14 points per game. Darrion Williams is the team leader with 14 points a night, and he's also shooting 41% from deep.
I point to Ven-Allen Lubin as the X-factor here, though. He can use his 6-foot-9, 250-pound frame to score over the smaller Wake Forest interior. Lubin is one of the most efficient post players in the country, so he'll be tough to slow down.
Wake Forest vs. NC State Betting Analysis
Traditionally, I try to avoid the under with two teams that rank top-100 in adjusted tempo.
That said, I think Wake Forest and NC State are top-40 defensive units for the rest of the season.
The Demon Deacons' defensive intensity travels anywhere. And the Wolfpack should be able to contain Wake's porous offense by forcing it to shoot 3s.
NC State turns the ball over just 14% of the time, so it won't give Wake a lot of free points. That bodes well for an under call.
My Pick: Under 159.5 (Play to 158)
