Georgia State vs. Arkansas St Odds & Betting Predictions - October 24, 2026

My power ratings call for this one to be GSU-3.5, so I’m happy to be on the right side of the key number.  The differential in the Belt between JMU and everyone else is so sizable because of the talent and depth disparity. I won’t let that scare me off GSU.  Arkansas State’s defense has faced a pair of top-45 offenses, per PFF. Memphis ran up 523 total yards and 42 points. South Alabama did them one better dropping 56 on their heads.  Georgia State fits the mold of a team ready to victimize the Red Wolves. 36th in PFF offensive grade, Cam Brown top 40 in QBR, accurate, functional mobility, avoids sacks and has a decent 13:5 TD-INT ratio.  And the Panther running game was cooking heading into JMU. And while they lost and got outplayed in the second half, they still ran for 188 yards. Arkansas State’s run defense 124th in yards allowed on the ground, and they regularly let up chunk runs of 20+ yards. When you dig into their data you find that they’re not bad on the tackling front, they can just get outmaneuvered and struggle in the block destruction department.  Now offensively, Trey Owens has been up and down. He’s capable as a passer and as a designed run option, but you can catch him holding the ball too long. It’s why USM got off the field so often, five sacks last week against him. And this SEALS the deal for me. Georgia State believe it or not, fourth in pass rush grade, 7th in sacks per game with over three. That’s how this game will swing.