Navy vs. FL Atlantic Odds & Betting Predictions - September 12, 2026

Navy hosted Towson in its season opener, dispatching the Tigers 42-15 while rushing for 506 yards. This was the first time the Midshipmen ran for over 500 yards in nine years. And while that is wildly impressive, it did come against a lowly FCS program. Towson hasn’t won an FCS playoff game in 13 years and is 18-19 under current head coach Pete Shinnick. They were also gashed last year on the ground (82nd in FCS), so I’m not ready to anoint Navy as an unstoppable rushing machine. Florida Atlantic went in the other direction in Week 1. Instead of paying a team to be a sacrificial lamb, they received $1.2 million to play the Florida Gators in The Swamp. After putting up a fight for a quarter and a half, the roof fell in on the Owls, resulting in a 45-point loss. So, how could I possibly advocate for the Owls after they just gave up 66 points? A change of venue and a massive athletic downgrade. The Owls went 4-2 against the spread last year at home, and nearly upset nine-win UConn at Flagler Credit Union Stadium. On paper, FAU was far more competitive than their 4-8 record indicated. The issue holding them back was turnovers. The Owls finished dead last in both giveaways and turnover margin (-21). And those giveaways hid the fact that FAU boasted the nation’s best passing attack (340 ypg) and excellent special teams. Navy’s defense may struggle to slow FAU down because its vulnerabilities are both related to pass defense. Brian Newberry is replacing his pass rushers on both edges and two starters in his secondary. And this was a team that finished 91st in pass defense in 2025 while allowing 381 passing yards and four passing touchdowns to this very FAU team last fall. Even lowly Towson completed 72% of its passes while beating Navy through the air for two touchdowns. Then there is the talent drop-off from an SEC program like Florida to Navy. It’s hard to overstate how different these rosters look. For example, Florida’s offense featured three blue-chip wide receivers, and Jadan Baugh who struck the Heisman pose in the end zone on Saturday night. It wasn’t outlandish, given the fact that Baugh rushed for 160 yards and three scores while catapulting into the Heisman race (t-4th among RBs, 200:1). Navy is in the process of replacing Blake Horvath at quarterback, and Eli Heidenreich at its “snipe” position, which is a hybrid slot back, running back, and slot receiver all rolled into one. Among qualifying quarterbacks, Horvath finished with the highest career passing efficiency by any service academy quarterback, that includes the 1963 Heisman winner Roger Staubach. Heidenreich just made the Pittsburgh Steelers 53-man roster after dominating the American as a pass-catching weapon (51/941/6). Braxton Woodson is an excellent run-game triggerman for the Millennial Wing T in Annapolis, but he leaves a lot to be desired as a pure passer, evidenced by his sub-50 percent career accuracy mark and his dink-and-dunk yards per attempt average (5.3). This will also be the first time we get to find out if Navy has a true replacement for Heidenreich after playing six different backs in the opener. Florida Atlantic will dominate the skies and force Navy into a position where they have to throw the football in this game. That’s where the Middies will deeply miss Horvath and Heidenreich. Take advantage of the recency bias baked into this moneyline and grab the talented home dog.

@_Collin1 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/college-football-betting-preview-week-2/id1579379256?i=1000788984527

@Breese https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bboc-6th-gear-cfb-week-2/id1579379256?i=1000788608165

@Breese Underdogs https://www.youtube.com/live/wFhTn9uArnI?is=G9XfPDKg3kB77Qyh