Big Ten Championship Game 2019: Betting Picks, Predictions, Our Best Bets for Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jonathan Taylor
- Our experts break down their favorite Ohio State vs. Wisconsin betting picks for the 2019 Big Ten Championship Game.
- The Buckeyes are a 16-point favorite, with the total at 57.5 and rising.
- Ohio State stomped Wisconsin at home six weeks ago, and do the Badgers stand any chance on the fast turf at Lucas Oil Stadium?
Big Ten Championship 2019 Odds
- Spread: Ohio State -15.5
- Over/Under: 57
- Time: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Location: Indianapolis, Ind.
Ohio State is looking to cap off a historically great regular season and get into the College Football Playoff unscathed when it takes on Wisconsin at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday night.
The Buckeyes rolled the Badgers 38-7 in Columbus on a windy, rainy afternoon earlier this season. JK Dobbins ran wild, and OSU limited Jonathan Taylor to just 52 yards.
Will we see another low-scoring blowout, or will Wisconsin change things up to keep pace with Ohio State on the fast turf in Indy?
Our experts break down their favorite bets below.
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin Picks
Odds as of Friday night and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200 and a deposit bonus of up to $500.
In the first meeting between these two teams in late October, the Badgers reached Buckeyes territory just three times, and once came from a blocked punt. Those other two times Wisconsin crossed midfield, Chase Young strip-sacked Jack Coan.
That’s because the usual ground prowess of Wisconsin just wasn’t there against a loaded Ohio State front seven. The Badgers got just 83 yards on 34 carries. Jonathan Taylor has just 93 rushing yards in two career games vs. the Buckeyes.
So in the Big Ten Championship, something has to change. And I think Wisconsin will have to throw the ball more.
In the first meeting, Ohio State and Wisconsin combined for 84 rushing and 39 passing attempts, as the Badgers threw just 17 times. Since then, the Badgers have eclipsed at least 20 passing attempts in three games.
Last week, Coan went 15 of 22 for 280 yards against Minnesota, his best performance in a Big Ten game this year.
Our projection makes this total 65. Wisconsin must hit a few deep shots to keep a great front seven of the Buckeyes honest, and Ohio State recently gave up 27 to Michigan and 21 to Rutgers, so it’s not unreasonable that Wisconsin can get its share of points on the board.
Pick: Over 56 or better [In NJ, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]
Collin Wilson is 482-404-23 (54.4%) overall betting on college football. You can follow him in our free app.
I was on the Buckeyes laying two touchdowns earlier this season in a 38-7 win over Wisconsin, and I don’t see much of anything that’s changed since then.
Wisconsin rebounded nicely from their midseason swoon to beat Minnesota convincingly last week and clinch the Big Ten West. While the Badgers are very efficient on defense against the pass and the run, they allow an ungodly amount of explosive runs plays because they’re so aggressive. That hurt them in the first matchup when Ohio State averaged six yards per carry and broke off several long runs.
With Fields banged up a bit, I’m expected Ohio State to lean more on JK Dobbins. That could be an issue for Wisconsin because he’s in a serious groove right now. While the threat of Fields running might not be there, Dobbins will still be able to hit a few big runs.
Wisconsin’s offense has been solid all season and I think a lot of the credit goes to Coan. With their first quarterback since Russell Wilson who can at least throw a football 20 yards, the Badgers are facing defenses that are at least a little concerned about the play-action pass.
Wisconsin still isn’t explosive, though, so it relies on slowly moving the ball down the field, hoping the opposition overcommits once so Taylor can break off a big run. Ohio State has the best defense in the nation and won’t make any mistakes against the Badgers. Wisconsin will have to earn in on Saturday night.
I make this spread Ohio State -17 so I pounced on the Buckeyes at -15.5 on Sunday when lines came out. I would still suggest backing Ohio State up to -17 because I don’t think anything has changed since their last matchup with Wisconsin.
Sure, they aren’t one their home field, but their speed will prevail with no weather to slow them down on the fast Lucas Oil turf.
Pick: Ohio State -15.5 [In NJ, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]
Kyle Miller is 231-198-12 (53.8%) overall betting on college football. You can follow him in our free app.
As Collin mentioned above, Jonathan Taylor has really struggled in two career games against Ohio State. He has just 93 yards on 35 carries.
This season, the Buckeyes have held eight of their 12 opponents to under 100 rushing yards as a team.
Wisconsin will lean on Taylor as much as it can, but I envision another rough day against Ohio State for the star back. FanDuel’s line of 105.5 is a little too high.
The Buckeyes rank top 5 in every defensive line metric, including opportunity rate and stuff rate, and are No. 9 in rushing success rate against. I expect them to live in the Wisconsin backfield on Saturday night.
Coan is going to need to throw to keep pace with Ohio State and I don’t think Taylor gets the roughly 25 touches he’ll need to hit 106 yards.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor under 105.5 rushing yards [In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]