College Football Rankings 2019: AP Poll vs. Our Power Ratings After Week 10

There are some college football point spreads that may look funky, at least if you're following traditional rankings.

Unbeaten and No. 15 SMU was a 6-point underdog at Memphis? No way.

That's because to create point spreads, you need to dig deeper into the box scores and determine how a team is actually playing, not just look at final scores and rankings. And sure enough, the Tigers won by the exact closing point spread, 54-48.

That's the goal of our Vegas-style betting power ratings. Collin Wilson uses box-score data to assign a relative strength number to every team, and those numbers can then be used to create a point spread on a neutral field between any two teams (we have Ohio State -71.5 vs. UMass, for the record). You can also get his home-field advantage ratings here.

Here we're comparing our power ratings to the Week 10 AP Poll to see which teams are overvalued and undervalued by the general public.

Action EDGE members can get access to our full power ratings here. You can also get Collin Wilson's projected point spreads for Week 11 to find early betting value, available free in The Action Network app today only.

We've updated the AP Poll after it was released on Sunday afternoon.

College Football Rankings After Week 10

Before Week 10

Ohio State

• AP Poll: 3
• Our Rankings: 1

A lot of college football fans discount the value of blowing other teams out.

In 2013, Florida State demolished everyone. Granted, there were some cupcakes on the schedule, but shouldn't we be more impressed by its blowouts of Duke and Georgia Tech than if those games were close and the Noles gutted out wins?

That's where I feel like we are with Ohio State. The Buckeyes have looked dominant on both sides of the ball and moved into our No. 1 spot last week. But because the schedule hasn't been great, AP Poll voters are discounting OSU just a little bit.

Alabama

• AP Poll: 2
• Our Rankings: 2

Without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, we believe Alabama would be the sixth-best team in the country — just ahead of Georgia and Penn State.

So if he can't go against LSU next week, the Tigers might actually be favored in Tuscaloosa — the first time the Tide would be a home underdog since 2007.

Clemson

• AP Poll: 4
• Our Rankings: 3

Every year for the last few years, it feels like Clemson struggles once or twice in September, then goes into full destruction mode through the back half of its ACC schedule. We've entered that period. Clemson will be favored by at least three touchdowns in all its remaining games.

There's no doubt the Tigers are one of the five best teams in the country, but they will need a little bit more consistency from quarterback Trevor Lawrence to repeat as national champions.

LSU

• AP Poll: 1
• Our Rankings: 4

LSU's offense is terrific. And while the defense is coming around, it's not a Tigers defense of old and they give up far too many explosive plays.

That's why LSU is No. 4 in our power ratings and No. 1 in the AP Poll. They have the most impressive wins and strength-of-schedule, but the box-score results haven't been flattering on defense.

Oklahoma

• AP Poll: 10
• Our Rankings: 5

Oklahoma is a good example of why oddsmakers don't overreact to a small sample, while AP Poll voters do.

Yes, that loss to Kansas State was egregious. Yes, the defense was awful.

But Oklahoma still hung 41 points and has done more with a worse defense over the past three years under Lincoln Riley.  The Sooners are still one of the 5-6 best teams in the country.

Georgia

• AP Poll: 8
• Our Rankings: 6

The Bulldogs looked impressive, but not overly impressive, in a win over Florida on Saturday. It gives the Bulldogs control in the SEC East and a path to the College Football Playoff, if they can win out.

Penn State

• AP Poll: 5
• Our Rankings: 7

As a Penn State alum, I am allowed to say this:

This offense has to get exposed at some point.

The Nittany Lions' box scores haven't looked favorable in wins over Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa. For the latter two, I think there are game-flow reasons for that.

The biggest problem is despite getting out to early leads, Penn State just hasn't kept its foot on the offensive pedal. Luckily the defense is excellent and helped them get to 8-0. The bye week came at a perfect time before taking on unbeaten Minnesota.

Auburn

• AP Poll: 11
• Our Rankings: 8

Auburn actually moved up two spots in our power ratings after a close loss to LSU, but fell in the AP Poll. Because that's how the AP Poll works — lose and drop, win and rise. It doesn't really matter who you play.

The Tigers were unimpressive in a win over Ole Miss on Saturday, but the real test comes in two weeks at home against Georgia.

Utah

• AP Poll: 9
• Our Rankings: 9

Utah hung on to beat Washington this week, and Oregon's win over USC gave the Utes the edge in the Pac-12 South over the Trojans.

Utah's College Football Playoff hopes are around 25% and they'll be favored by at least 10 points in all their remaining regular season games.

Oregon

• AP Poll: 7
• Our Rankings: 10

The Ducks rolled USC on Saturday, and appear destined to meet Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Their College Football Playoff hopes are improving, but they will need the SEC to cannibalize itself a little more.

Wisconsin

• AP Poll: 18
• Our Rankings: 11

The Badgers have plummeted in the AP Poll after two straight losses — a reasonable one at Ohio State and an inexcusable one at Illinois — but have dropped just a few spots in our power ratings.

Michigan

• AP Poll: 14
• Our Rankings: 12

It feels like Michigan is 3-5, but the Wolverines are 7-2 and rising in the AP Poll after consecutive wins over Notre Dame and Maryland.

Maybe this team will give Ohio State a little scare after all.

Florida

• AP Poll: 6
• Our Rankings: 13

Among the most overrated teams toward the top of our power ratings, the Gators lived up to that with a loss to Georgia and should fall to around No. 13 in the AP Poll this week.

Notre Dame

• AP Poll: 16
• Our Rankings: 14

Notre Dame needed a touchdown with under a minute left to survive against Virginia Tech. The Irish's CFP hopes are dead, but they can still make a New Year's Six bowl.

Iowa State

• AP Poll: NR
• Our Rankings: 15

Iowa State's loss last week to Oklahoma State dropped it out of the Top 25, but the Cyclones have still turned in some pretty impressive box-score results.

Texas A&M

• AP Poll: NR
• Our Rankings: 16

AP voters adjust very little for schedule — its mostly about wins and losses, if you're a Power 5 team.

Texas A&M has losses to Auburn, Alabama and Clemson and therefore, won't sniff the Top 25 right now despite being No. 16 in our ratings.

At season's end, when the Aggies are around 8-4, they'll probably work their way back into the Top 25 as other teams lose.

Baylor

• AP Poll: 12
• Our Rankings: 17

Baylor could be favored in all its remaining games but a home date with Oklahoma (at Texas is the questionable one).

The Bears have a great shot at a New Year's Six bowl, and their impressive box-score results back up the 8-0 record despite struggling with West Virginia on Thursday.

Washington

• AP Poll: NR
• Our Rankings: 18

Like A&M, Washington's four losses have the Huskies outside the AP Top 25, but they're still in our top 25 thanks to their impressive box scores — even after another loss to Utah on Saturday.

Texas

• AP Poll: NR
• Our Rankings: 19

Another team with a tough schedule, Texas has fallen in the AP Poll as the losses pile up. The defense has really let the Horns down.

UCF

• AP Poll: NR
• Our Rankings: 20

The wonderful irony is that despite having two losses, UCF might actually be better than they were over the last few seasons. They're almost 20 spots higher in our power ratings than they were for most of last year, anyway.

Iowa

• AP Poll: 19
• Our Rankings: 21

Would you expect anything else from Iowa? Two losses entering November, at the back end of the Top 25 in both our ratings and the AP Poll. Just another year for Kirk Ferentz.

Missouri

• AP Poll: NR
• Our Rankings: 22

Missouri might be the most confusing team in the country. Or maybe the Tigers just aren't that good, evidenced by consecutive losses to Kentucky and Vanderbilt.

Oklahoma State

• AP Poll: NR
• Our Rankings: 23

Oklahoma State is among my favorite teams to bet on, despite its maddening inconsistency. Particularly on the moneyline.

The inconsistencies have created some inflated value on the Cowboys as the public forgets how potent this offense can be.

They lost star receiver Tylan Wallace for the season, but still beat TCU on Saturday.

USC

• AP Poll: NR
• Our Rankings: 24

This USC is still hanging onto a Top 25 spot in our ratings despite a blowout loss to Oregon on Saturday.

Not having an AP Top 25 ranking next to their name might be forcing people to underrate the Trojans just a bit.

Michigan State

• AP Poll: NR
• Our Rankings: 25

This team stinks. Despite a stellar defense, I can't make any argument for why the Spartans should be in the Top 25 of any ranking system.

Minnesota

• AP Poll: 13
• Our Rankings: 27

We've reached the portion of our program dedicated to teams ranked in the AP Poll, but not in the top 25 of our power ratings.

It starts with Minnesota, which has quietly strung together four impressive defensive performances after allowing an average of 30 points per game in its first four (and sliding by two G5, one FCS team and Purdue by a combined 20 points).

But the last four Big Ten games have been impressive. Those first four are still preventing the Gophers from cracking our Top 25, though.

SMU

• AP Poll: 15
• Our Rankings: 29

SMU was finally exposed against Memphis on Saturday, and fell 15 spots in our power ratings.

Cincinnati

• AP Poll: 17
• Our Rankings: 30

Cincinnati has quietly been really good again, but pedestrian offensive efficiency numbers are holding the Bearcats back from being a top 20 team.

Appalachian State

• AP Poll: 20
• Our Rankings: 49

Well, our ranking was justified.

The Mountaineers lost outright as a 14-point favorite on Thursday night to Georgia Southern.

Boise State

• AP Poll: 21
• Our Rankings: 35

Boise is right in the mix once again in the Mountain West, with only a loss to BYU keeping the Broncos out of a NY6 spot right now. But there's plenty of time to get it back.

Boise did need some late offensive magic to survive against San Jose State on Saturday.

Kansas State

• AP Poll: 22
• Our Rankings: 38

Pull off a shocker? Get ranked. That's how it goes sometimes.

Kansas State is No. 22 in the AP Poll after beating Oklahoma, and throttled a much improved Kansas team on Saturday.

Wake Forest

• AP Poll: 23
• Our Rankings: 40

Thought it shares a division with Clemson, there's a chance Wake Forest will represent the ACC in a New Year's Six bowl (assuming the Tigers are off to the College Football Playoff).

Wake rolled N.C. State on Saturday, 44-10.

Memphis

• AP Poll: 24
• Our Rankings: 42

If it were offered, I'd bet on Memphis to represent the Group of 5 in its NY6 bowl.

The Tigers have one loss, and have posted much more impressive box-score results than SMU. In that one loss to Temple, 30-28, Memphis fell behind early and would have made up the difference had the game gone on for another few minutes.

San Diego State

• AP Poll: 25
• Our Rankings: 73

Jeez. What? How is this team ranked?

The Aztecs rank No. 73 in our power ratings, right behind Kansas, Purdue, Temple and Western Michigan. They're 7-1, but haven't topped 31 points and have won four one-score games.

The schedule is pretty light the rest of the way — Nevada, a down Fresno State, Hawaii and BYU. SDSU will probably find itself in the MWC Championship Game again.