The No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2, 7-1 SEC) take on the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (11-1, 7-1 SEC) in the SEC Championship on Saturday, Dec. 6, at 4 p.m. ET on ABC.
Georgia, which enters as a -2.5 favorite, has won 8 in a row since suffering a 24-21 loss to this same Alabama team for its lone SEC loss on Sept. 27.
Alabama, meanwhile, is coming off a narrow 27-20 win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl. While the Tide beat Georgia earlier in the season, their 1 conference loss was a 23-21 defeat at the hands of Oklahoma on Nov. 15.
Can Georgia exact revenge on Alabama this time around, or will the Tide make it 2 in a row over the Dawgs?
We polled 9 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Alabama vs. Georgia picks and college football predictions for the SEC Championship on Saturday, Dec. 6.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Alabama +2.5
In this rematch of one of the best games of the year, our writers are leaning toward the Crimson Tide — and I'm right there with them.
That was truly a grind-it-out game last time, with only seven points being scored in the second half. However, I do think it's important to note that Alabama had a win expectancy of less than 60% (according to ESPN) for the vast majority of the game.
I'm really going with the Tide because I think this game should essentially be a pick'em. Taking a look at some key metrics and grades for each team shines a light on why.
Alabama ranks:
- 13th in PFF Overall Grade
- 33rd in PFF Offensive Grade
- 13th in PFF Defensive Grade
- 34th in Offensive Success Rate
- 30th in Points Per Opportunity
- 17th in Success Rate Allowed
- 22nd in Points Per Opportunity Allowed
Meanwhile, Georgia ranks:
- 12th in PFF Overall Grade
- 23rd in PFF Offensive Grade
- 30th in PFF Defensive Grade
- 14th in Offensive Success Rate
- 7th in Points Per Opportunity
- 27th in Success Rate Allowed
- 69th in Points Per Opportunity Allowed
Our internal projections also have this as a pick’em on a neutral site. These teams have shown they're evenly matched once before, with a slight edge to Alabama.
Note Georgia’s struggles stopping teams once they reach scoring — that could be the difference in the game.
One other area I expect Alabama to have the advantage is the turnover battle.
Georgia has struggled to create chaos for opposing offenses, ranking just 89th in Havoc allowed. Alabama, however, is great at preventing chaos, ranking 10th in Havoc allowed.
Give me the Tide to cover the spread, and don’t shy away from taking them to win outright. I sure am. I think their edges in scoring position and in the turnover battle will be enough to bring them to 2-0 against the Dawgs this year.
Over/Under Pick
Over 47.5 | 4 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 47.5 | 3 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 47.5
Our writers are similarly torn on the total, but I do lean toward the under here.
These two teams have played once and combined for a total of 45, and while you could point to the Alabama offense disappearing completely in the second half, I don’t see an offensive explosion the second time around.
Both of these teams are adept at staying in front of the chains (both rank in the top 30 in standard down rate), and neither plays particularly fast. The Tide rank 105th in plays per minute, while Georgia comes in at 95th.
In addition to playing slowly, both of these teams excel at killing offensive possessions through penalties. The Bulldogs rank 115th in offensive penalty yards, and the Tide sit 106th.
It's difficult to sustain momentum when you're consistently moving backward.
Look for Georgia to keep the ball on the ground, as the Bulldogs rank 31st in rush rate. This was evidenced last game when quarterback Gunner Stockton attempted only 20 passes for 130 yards.
One final crumb as food for thought: The Tide have only scored more than 30 points in one of their SEC games this season. Meanwhile, Georgia just put up 16 points against Georgia Tech.
It was a very similar story as the Alabama game, with Stockton throwing for just 70 yards. However, the Dawgs pulled it out on the back of their defense.
Expect more of the same in Round 2 between these SEC blue bloods.
As I said in the spread section, give me the Tide to win in a low-scoring slugfest.
Alabama vs. Georgia Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -140 |
- Alabama vs. Georgia Spread: Alabama +2.5, Georgia -2.5
- Alabama vs. Georgia Over/Under: 47.5
- Alabama vs. Georgia Moneyline: Alabama +115, Georgia -140
