Alabama vs. Georgia Best Bets & Picks: How We’re Betting the Spread & Total for Saturday’s SEC Championship
Getty Images. Design by Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network. Pictured: Georgia’s Brock Bowers, Carson Beck and Tykee Smith. Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry, Jalen Milroe and Jermaine Burton.
Alabama vs. Georgia Odds
By Dan Keegan
I don’t believe Kirby Smart.
He's convinced his entire team that nobody believes they can win it all. That their whole run is fraudulent. That Alabama is still the big bad in college football, and maybe little ol’ Georgia can finally upset the Tide this year.
What Kirby needs to tell his team and what we need to understand as observers of the sport are two very different things. Kirby’s alternate reality has helped him build a modern dynasty, one modeled on and now challenged by this Alabama Crimson Tide program.
Improbably, Alabama is no longer inevitable. The Tide have been excellent yet vulnerable in recent years. The cracks have started to show in the armor. They haven't won a national title since 2020, almost an eternity in Tuscaloosa.
And that’s how they find themselves as six-point underdogs. The hunted are now the hunters.
Georgia needed to slay the Crimson dragon in 2021 to host the trophy but now must defend the castle as Nick Saban’s team looks to regain the SEC crown.
Alabama might be ready to do it.
Georgia has looked vulnerable against rushing quarterbacks this season, and Jalen Milroe is one of the game’s most dynamic rushers. His deep ball is as good as any, and he seems to get better each week.
Alabama won this matchup in December 2021, thanks to a brilliant stretch of play from Bryce Young. Can Milroe replicate that feat, or is Georgia too much?
To get a sense of this matchup, we polled 16 of our college football experts on how they would approach this game. We found a consensus, and our team recommends taking the points with Alabama alongside the over.
Let’s get to our shared analysis.
Alabama vs. Georgia Spread
By Cody Goggin
Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide travel to Atlanta as six-point underdogs against Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs.
This is not the exact rematch as years ago when Alabama was a seven-point underdog. The Georgia defense is not as talented.
The Crimson Tide's improving offensive line should find some running room, and I anticipate Jalen Milroe will be more decisive when rolling out and running the ball than he was last week against Auburn. The Bulldogs rank 88th in Rush Explosiveness allowed, and the Tide can break off some big runs in this one.
Meanwhile, Alabama's defense has been elite all year, especially in the season's second half. The Tide rank seventh in Success Rate allowed, and they'll look to neutralize a strong Georgia offensive line.
Carson Beck has been great when well-protected this year but only completes 51.2% of his passes under pressure, so look for Alabama defensive coordinator Kevin Steele to draw up some pressure looks behind Dallas Turner.
Between Alabama's strong defense and Georgia's relatively weaker one, at least compared to years prior, I expect a one-score game in Atlanta.
Our staff agrees that taking the points with the Tide is the best bet here.
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Alabama vs. Georgia Over/Under
By Cody Goggin
Our staff was a bit more split on the total of this game than the spread, but we still like the over.
These are two of the better offenses in college football. Georgia’s offense comes in at fourth in SP+, while Alabama ranks 13th.
However, the Crimson Tide have consistently improved on offense. A slow start resulted in a loss to Texas and Milroe getting benched against South Florida. But since Milroe's return, he's been among the most electric quarterbacks in the nation, carrying this Alabama offense.
Alabama ranks 37th in Success Rate, 13th in Explosiveness and 20th in Finishing Drives. The Tide has been equally strong both rushing and passing, allowing them to pick apart a defense’s weaknesses.
Georgia's weakness is against the rush. The Bulldogs sit eighth in Pass Success Rate allowed but 56th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 65th in Rush PPA allowed.
The Bulldogs also haven't prevented big plays, ranking 88th in Rush Explosiveness allowed. Meanwhile, Alabama has occasionally broken off big runs and ranks 47th in Rush Explosiveness.
Georgia's defense has been excellent and overpowering for years. However, many doubted the offense after losing offensive coordinator Todd Monken and quarterback Stetson Bennett in the offseason.
New quarterback Carson Beck has answered the call, passing for 3,495 yards and 22 touchdowns in his first year as the starter.
Georgia ranks third in Pass Success Rate and 10th in Rush Success Rate, and the Bulldogs own ranks of ninth in Havoc allowed, fifth in Finishing Drives and third in Success Rate as well.
With Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey and future NFL tackle Amarius Mims now healthy, the Bulldogs' offense is back to full strength.
Alabama's defense is great, but if any team can piece together sustained drives against the Crimson Tide, it's Georgia.
Our staff expects these two talented offenses to light up the scoreboard on Saturday afternoon, going over the 55-point total.
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