USF vs Alabama Odds, Prediction, Picks | Can Tide Cover in G5 Road Trip?

USF vs Alabama Odds, Prediction, Picks | Can Tide Cover in G5 Road Trip? article feature image

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tyler Buchner.

USF vs Alabama Odds

Saturday, Sept. 16
3:30 p.m. ET
South Florida Odds
-105o / -115u
Alabama Odds
-105o / -115u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

After a daunting loss in front of their home fans, the Alabama Crimson Tide head to Tampa to take on the USF Bulls.

We all saw what happened in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide were vastly outplayed by Texas and lost 34-24. Clearly, adjustments need to be made, but Alabama has a lot of new players and first-time starters.

USF is coming off a solid 38-24 home win against Florida A&M. With new head coach Alex Golesh, there’s hope this program will turn things around after a horrendous 1-11 record last season.

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South Florida Bulls

The Bulls definitely have a tall task in front of them. They were horrible last season, but have a new coach looking to turn things around.

So far, despite last week's win, things aren't looking great.

South Florida ranks 122nd in Offensive Success Rate and heavily focuses on the run. The vertical game hasn’t been very successful, and Byrum Brown has yet to eclipse 200 passing yards in a game.

However, Brown is deadly on the run, which is why USF’s rushing attack has been so successful.

In the first game of the season, Brown rushed for 160 yards and two touchdowns.

Unfortunately, he's not as dynamic through the air. He’s capable of the high-end play — like when he bombed an 84-yard touchdown to Khafre Brown — but those are few and far between. There aren’t many vertical threats on this roster, and it feels like Byrum Brown has to carry the team on his back.

I’ll give them credit on the defensive end; the Bulls are 26th in Success Rate and 42nd in Havoc.

Logan Berryhill and Jaelen Stokes are solid defensive backs who have created some problems for the opposition thus far.

It'll be interesting to see how Buchner fares against them.

Alabama Crimson Tide

For the first time in his tenure in Tuscaloosa, coach Nick Saban is facing some uncertainty about the strength of his program.

I don’t think Jalen Milroe was the problem last week, but Saban has decided to start Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner, who has plenty of experience working with offensive coordinator Tommy Rees.

Still, there’s a lot that this team needs to address.

Let’s start with the offensive line … woof. Texas’ defensive line trampled Alabama and sacked Milroe five times.

There are also growing pains with new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. Alabama is 51st in Success Rate and 65th in passing.

Jase McClellan has been serviceable in his career, but as a first-time starter, he’s been rather vanilla and is only running for 3.8 yards per carry. Milroe is actually Alabama’s leading rusher with 92 yards on 22 attempts.

For the past few years, Alabama has had premier vertical threats, such as DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and Jameson Williams. Well, there’s now a lack of legit playmakers out wide. Jermaine Burton, Amari Niblack, Kobe Prentice and Isaiah Bond have all been decent, but none have exploded.

We can all talk about the quarterback and offensive line play, but we should also look at the defense. Saturday was the worst pressure generated by the Tide’s defense since 2016 (10%). Two weeks ago, they generated the fourth-lowest pressure (21%).

Neither Dallas Turner, nor Chris Braswell, has made a significant impact, and it’s starting to cause Alabama fans to bite their nails. The pass rush lacks explosiveness and is ranked 83rd in Success Rate. The run defense is ranks 80th.

Additionally, the defense ranks 93rd in Havoc, which isn't something we usually see from Alabama.

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USF vs Alabama

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Alabama and USF match up statistically:

Alabama Offense vs. USF Defense
Rush Success5258
Line Yards3449
Pass Success60105
Finishing Drives18118
Quality Drives6989
USF Offense vs. Alabama Defense
Rush Success7478
Line Yards2134
Pass Success13182
Finishing Drives10276
Quality Drives11767
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling1487
PFF Coverage26102
Special Teams SP+1219
Middle 82107
Seconds per Play26.9 (66)20.1 (2)
Rush Rate59.5% (45)59.7% (51)

USF vs Alabama

Betting Pick & Prediction

Regardless of what we saw last week, Alabama is clearly the superior program.

FanDuel has this game listed at 31.5, which I can see the Tide covering rather easily. In past years, after Alabama lost, the next opponent would feel its wrath. It’ll be interesting to see if Alabama comes out with that same intensity.

USF can’t get any worse than it was, but it’s still in the early stages of its rebuild. With the lack of a consistent vertical threat, I don’t foresee Alabama’s secondary being challenged much.

The Tide's pass rush has an opportunity to put itself back on the map, and based off past history, I think we'll see just that.

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