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The 10 Most Interesting Betting Trends for Alabama-LSU

Nov 02, 2018 10:00 AM EDT
  • Betting trends should never be taken as gospel, but there are plenty of interesting angles for Alabama-LSU (Saturday at 8 p.m. ET, CBS) this weekend.
  • Those trends include Alabama's success when bettors are fading the Tide, Ed Orgeron's success as a dog and more.

Betting trends aren’t always reliable. They’re not necessarily predictive, and sometimes they can be cherry-picked.

But for Alabama-LSU this weekend, there are plenty of interesting nuggets to look at when deciding what to bet on, or if you just want to learn about the history of this SEC rivalry from a betting perspective.

Alabama-LSU Betting Trends

1. Under Nick Saban, Alabama is 40-30 against the spread (ATS) when playing a ranked opponent, including 18-11 ATS when favored by double-digits.

2. As a 14.5-point underdog, this is the most points LSU has gotten at home in Death Valley since 2001. The previous high (or low) mark for points was 9.5 at home against Florida in 2009.

3. In ranked SEC matchups, the favorite covers the first-half line 56% of the time. When one team is ranked and the other isn’t, the favorite covers at a 47.2% clip.

Alabama has been the ultimate first-half team this season, going 8-0 ATS against the first-half number.

4. Since 1990, LSU has been a double-digit underdog in Tiger Stadium nine times, but not since back in 2001 under Nick Saban himself (Oct. 6, 2001 as a 13.5-point dog vs. Florida; lost 44-15).

LSU is 3-6 straight up (SU) and 4-5 ATS as a double-digit home underdog, with its largest home spread coming in 1991 as a 27.5-point dog against Bobby Bowden and No. 1 Florida State. The Tigers lost, 27-16, but covered the almost four-touchdown spread.

Via Harrah’s

5. This is the 31st meeting of top five teams in our Bet Labs database (since 2005). The underdog is 18-10-2 in those games.

There’s never been a top five matchup with a spread this high, but of the five previous in double-digits, three have involved Alabama.

6. Home underdogs in the SEC have not been historically profitable, and it’s been the worst conference in which to back those teams. Ranked home dogs in the SEC have been even worse, covering just 44.8% of games (81-100-4).

7. If the public is fading Alabama, don’t join in. The Tide are 27-16-1 (62.8%) when getting fewer than 50% of bets since 2005. Action is nearly even on this game as of Friday morning.

8. Anyone betting on Ed Orgeron as an underdog has been rewarded. Since becoming USC’s interim head coach in 2013, he’s 7-3 ATS when getting points, covering his last five. He’s won four of those outright.

9. Since 2000, LSU has had three head coaches: Saban, Les Miles and Orgeron. Since Saban took over for Gerry DiNardo after the 1999 season, LSU has won at least eight games each year entering 2018 (they have seven wins right now).

This will be just the 7th time LSU will be listed as a double-digit underdog, at Tiger Stadium … or in any other location since 2000.

LSU is 1-5 SU and 3-3 ATS in those previous six games, but LSU won its last game in this spot earlier this season in Auburn as a 10-point underdog, behind a last-second field goal to get the win.

10. Alabama has covered four of the last five games in this rivalry, and four of the last five have gone under the total.

Credit:

Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nick Saban

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# BETS
59
-4
59
-3.5
64.5
-11
66.5
-9
52
-3
52
-4
48
PK
47.5
+1
50.5
-7.5
50.5
-7
-2.5
44
-2.5
43.5
55
-4.5
54
-3
-3
54.5
-2.5
55.5
-6
66.5
-6
68.5
48
-11
48.5
-12
-2.5
73
-5
74
67.5
-5
67
-3
-3
53.5
-2.5
53.5
-1.5
57.5
-1
60
55
-3.5
55
-3
61
-3.5
60.5
-3.5
41
-2
40.5
PK
56.5
-3
55.5
-3.5
-3
47
-4
47
-6.5
55
-3.5
55
54.5
-5
54.5
-4
-7
74
-1.5
68.5
54.5
-6.5
54.5
-3.5
50.5
-6
51
-7.5
-6.5
55
-4
54.5
-2
58.5
-1
60.5
56
-11
55
-12
79
-13.5
81.5
-14
-6.5
53.5
-5
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74
45
-6.5
46.5
-7
58.5
-4.5
58.5
-4.5
-5
44.5
-7
44.5
-8
54.5
-8
55.5
48
-4
47.5
-6
58.5
-5
58
-6.5
58
-10.5
58
-11.5

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