The No. 20 Tulane Green Wave (11-1, 7-1 American) take on the No. 24 North Texas Mean Green (10-2, 7-1 American) in the American Conference Championship game. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, Dec. 5, and can be watched live on ABC.
North Texas is a 2.5-point favorite on the spread and a -136 favorite on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 66.5 points.
Read on for our Tulane vs North Texas picks and American Championship parlay.
Tulane vs North Texas Picks, Parlay
- North Texas ML
- Caleb Hawkins 100+ Rush Yards
- Caleb Hawkins Anytime Touchdown
- Jamauri McClure 50+ Rush Yards
- Drew Mestemaker Under 323.5 Pass Yards
- Jake Retzlaff Under 235.5 Pass Yards
Parlay Odds: +926 (FanDuel)
Tulane vs North Texas Odds
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | +118 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | -136 |
Tulane vs North Texas Same-Game Parlay
I tried to look at this game from 10,000 feet and craft a reasonable potential game script.
In short, I believe North Texas will end up victorious, but not in the way we’d think.
Eric Morris is known as an offensive guru and quarterback whisperer. It’s why the Mean Green rank first nationally in Success Rate, why Drew Mestemaker leads the nation in passing yards, and why Morris will be coaching Oklahoma State next season.
However, North Texas isn’t running an air raid attack. The offense has real balance, and the Mean Green have leaned heavily into the ground game during the Caleb Hawkins breakout.
Over the first seven games, Hawkins averaged 78 yards on 13 carries per game. In the four games since, he’s averaged 167 yards on 26 carries per game, finding paydirt an obscene 16 times during the stretch.
Among running backs with at least 55 carries this season, Hawkins ranks second in PFF’s Run grades, fourth in yards after contact (891), and fourth in missed tackles forced (78).
Behind an offensive line that ranks seventh nationally in Line Yards, Hawkins has been tearing up the American.
I expect he’ll destroy Tulane’s front seven, which is nothing special. The Wave rank 79th nationally in Defensive Line Yards, 69th in PFF’s Tackling grades, 70th in EPA per Rush allowed, and 84th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
Actually, both offenses should lean on the ground game.
North Texas has a very sound secondary, as the Mean Green rank in the top 20 nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed and PFF’s Coverage grades. Only three quarterbacks have thrown for over 250 yards in a game against them this season: Charlotte’s Grayson Loftis in a trailing game script, UAB’s Jalen Kitna in a pass-heavy offense, and South Florida’s Byrum Brown in a blowout.
However, the Mean Green’s rush defense is among the worst in the nation, ranking 124th in Defensive Line Yards, 134th in Rush Success Rate allowed, and 131st in EPA per Rush allowed.
Opponents have loaded up and bulldozed through the ground. Over the past nine games, North Texas has allowed over 240 rushing yards per game at nearly six yards per attempt. During that stretch, Army went for 387, South Florida went for 306, Navy went for 311, and Rice went for 296.
Tulane is far more efficient through the air with Jake Retzlaff’s arm, but the team isn’t opposed to establishing the run. Jamauri McClure has taken advantage of a recent opportunity in the backfield, rushing for 285 yards on 38 attempts over the past three weeks.
So, how do I see this game playing out?
I expect both offenses to establish the run early and lean on it often. Both running backs should stuff the stat sheet, which in turn will reduce both quarterbacks’ opportunities.
However, the game will ultimately come down to one significant factor: Tulane’s pass defense isn’t good enough to keep Mestemaker off the field in crucial passing situations.
While North Texas’ secondary is rock solid, Tulane ranks 70th nationally in EPA per Pass allowed, 97th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, and 79th in PFF’s Coverage grades.
As they have been over the past several weeks, the Mean Green should lean on Hawkins. However, Tulane’s defense won’t be able to stop anything that Morris calls, while North Texas’ secondary will keep Retzlaff from winning the Conference Championship with his arm.
Ultimately, I’m banking on both quarterbacks staying under their passing yards total, both running backs amassing plenty of yards on the ground, and Hawkins finding the endzone for the 17th time in five weeks, all in a North Texas championship victory.
Tulane vs North Texas Parlay
- North Texas ML
- Caleb Hawkins 100+ Rush Yards
- Caleb Hawkins Anytime Touchdown
- Jamauri McClure 50+ Rush Yards
- Drew Mestemaker Under 323.5 Pass Yards
- Jake Retzlaff Under 235.5 Pass Yards
Parlay Odds: +926 (FanDuel)
