The Arizona State Sun Devils take on the Utah Utes in Salt Lake City, Utah. Kickoff is set for 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Utah is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -210. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my Arizona State vs. Utah predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025.
Arizona State vs Utah Prediction
- Arizona State vs. Utah Pick: Utah -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
My Utah vs. Arizona State best bet is on the Utes spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Arizona State vs Utah Odds
| Arizona St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 48.5 -108o / -112u | +172 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 48.5 -108o / -112u | -210 |
- Arizona State vs Utah point spread: Utah -5.5
- Arizona State vs Utah over/under: 48.5 points
- Arizona State vs Utah moneyline: Arizona State +172, Utah -210
Arizona State vs Utah Preview
Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Preview: Trouble on Later Downs
Arizona State’s attack shows two faces. On standard downs, the Sun Devils grade +0.12 EPA/play (31st) and run it efficiently (+0.15 EPA/rush, 22nd). But when they don’t win early, the wheels wobble: they face 7.24 yards on third down (89th) and convert only 39.3% on 3rd/4th (111th).
The offense could be without wide receiver Jalen Moss (questionable, illness/foot). More broadly, the defense has shouldered several absences (see below), increasing the pressure on the offense to stay mistake-free and extend drives — exactly where the Sun Devils have struggled.
That’s a problem against a Utah defense built to win the opener and close the door.
The Utes are sixth nationally in early-downs EPA allowed (-0.21), 10th in EPA/pass allowed (-0.28) and hold opponents to 36.4% available yards (29th) — all signs of a unit that compresses drive value before the sticks even flip.
The Sun Devils' injuries are concerning, specifically in the back seven and the trench. It's the wrong time for injuries to pile up, specifically in this matchup.
Utah doesn’t need exotic pressure to get off the field; it just has to do what it usually does on first and second down and force Arizona State into the long money downs that already give it trouble.
It seems like there are going to be a lot of issues for the Sun Devils' offense on Saturday night in a brutal road environment.
Utah Utes Betting Preview: Efficient Offense Leads the Way
Utah’s offense is built to stay on schedule and convert, and quarterback Devon Dampier has been the engine behind that profile.
Through five games, the junior has thrown for 1,027 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions (73% Completion Rate) and has added 258 rushing yards and two scores, giving the Utes a true dual-threat who keeps early downs clean and third downs short.
Utah grades as efficient in both phases (EPA/pass +0.22, 31st; EPA/rush +0.08, 44th) and turns possessions into yards at a top-15 Available Yards rate (62.1%, 15th).
The most telling piece is situational football: Utah faces the second-shortest third downs in the country (4.99 yards, 2nd) and converts them at a top-three clip (60.8%, 3rd) — precisely the kind of profile that travels snap-to-snap regardless of pace.
Against this Arizona State defense, that rhythm matters. The Sun Devils defend the pass respectably (EPA/pass allowed -0.14, 35th), but they're leaky against the run (+0.08, 112th) and routinely lose hidden yardage in field position (opponents starting at their own 31, 127th).
That combination invites Utah to lean on Dampier’s keepers and the downhill run game to set up manageable thirds — and then let his quick processing finish drives.
The passing game has absorbed losses at the skill spots — WR Daidren Zipperer and TE Hunter Andrews are out for the season — but the offense has largely maintained efficiency because Dampier’s dual-threat profile, and the run scheme keep the Utes ahead of the sticks.
Even with those absences, the numbers you supplied — especially Utah’s No. 2 ranking in average third-down distance and No. 3 third-down conversion rate — pair neatly with Dampier’s current form to stress an Arizona State defense softer in run fits and thin in the back end.
Arizona State vs Utah Pick, Betting Analysis
This handicap is about leverage on the downs that decide games. Utah owns a top-10 early-downs defense and forces opponents off schedule; Arizona State’s offense looks fine on first and second down but craters on money downs.
Flip the field, Utah’s offense is ruthlessly manageable on third down while Arizona State’s defense is most vulnerable against the run and in the field-position game. Those edges add up to a favorite in a tough road venue at altitude that can create separation.
Expect Utah to lean into its identity: hammer early-down efficiency, lean on the run to keep third downs short and let Rice-Eccles do work on Arizona State’s long-yardage snaps. The Sun Devils’ best counter is to rip off successful first-down runs and keep the call sheet wide on second down.
But Utah’s top-10 early-downs defense is built to erase exactly that plan, and Arizona State’s 111th-ranked late-down conversion rate invites empty possessions in a venue that punishes misfires.
As drives accumulate, Utah’s field-position edge against this specific opponent should surface, and the Utes’ third-ranked third-down offense is tailor-made to finish the separation.
It's an excellent opportunity to take Utah at home laying under a touchdown, as Rice-Eccles should be absolutely jumping on Saturday night.
Pick: Utah -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
Arizona State vs Utah Betting Trends
