The Arkansas State Red Wolves take on the South Alabama Jaguars in Mobile, Ala. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
South Alabama is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -290. Arkansas State, meanwhile, enters as a +7/5 underdog and is +230 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 59 points.
Here’s my Arkansas State vs. South Alabama prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, October 14.
Arkansas State vs South Alabama Prediction
- Arkansas State vs. South Alabama Pick: Arkansas State Team Total Under 26.5
My South Alabama vs. Arkansas State best bet is on the Red Wolves to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Arkansas State vs South Alabama Odds
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 59 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 59 -110o / -110u | -290 |
- Arkansas State vs South Alabama Spread: South Alabama -7.5, Arkansas State +7.5
- Arkansas State vs South Alabama Over/Under: 59 Points
- Arkansas State vs South Alabama Moneyline: Arkansas State +230, South Alabama -290
Arkansas State vs South Alabama College Football Betting Preview
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview: Still Not a Player
Arkansas State comes in after stealing a victory from the jaws of defeat last Saturday against Texas State.
The Red Wolves were very fortunate to score late against the heavily-favored Bobcats to snap a four-game losing streak.
However, I'm still not convinced Arkansas State is any good this season, and the defense continues to be a significant liability.
This Arkansas State defense is allowing 5.8 yards per carry and 7.2 yards per play this season. The Red Wolves struggle to get stops on third down and grade out as the worst pass coverage unit in the Sun Belt.
This defense is allowing 500 yards per game against FBS competition, and now it hits the road to face a desperate South Alabama team.
Offensively, the Red Wolves have struggled to sustain drives and put up points. Prior to last week, this offense was putting up just 16.8 points per game against FBS competition, and the offensive line has been the main culprit.
This bunch can't protect the quarterback or prevent negative plays, as the team's rushing average comes in at just 3.45 yards per carry.
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview: Frustration in Mobile
South Alabama has to be frustrated with how its season has gone thus far, as the Jaguars are 1-5 in a season filled with “what ifs.”
They played Tulane close in Week 2 and competed well against Auburn on the road. They also had a 31-point second-half meltdown against Coastal Carolina, where three turnovers directly led to CCU touchdown drives.
This season has certainly gone sideways for the Jaguars. If this bunch wants to rally the troops and make a late-season push for bowl eligibility, the time is now.
Offensively, the ground game has really come to life for the Jaguars. In each of the last three weeks, South Alabama has run for more than 200 yards. While this team isn't overly explosive, the ground attack has been consistent.
Running back Kentrel Bullock should feast against Arkansas State at home, and I expect quarterback Bishop Davenport to run the play-action game off the run and take deep shots downfield.
Defensively, the Jags have underwhelmed this season, mainly due to a lack of pass rush and consistently missing tackles. South Alabama has just seven sacks this season.
The missed tackles have been problematic and have led to too many scoring drives. This defense has been unreliable, causing this team to fall behind in the standings.
Arkansas State vs South Alabama Pick, Betting Analysis
This is a big revenge spot for South Alabama to avenge last year's 18-16 final score, and I think its defense can lock in for this one. I'm going to take Arkansas State's team total under 26.5 in this matchup.
Arkansas State’s offense is led by quarterback Jaylen Raynor, who has completed 67% of his throws this season.
However, the explosiveness hasn't been there for the Red Wolves this season. Raynor hasn't thrown for 300 yards in a game against an FBS opponent this season, and this team has been way too inconsistent both on third down and in the red zone.
South Alabama grades out as the fourth-best secondary unit in the Sun Belt, per PFF. It's allowing just 169 yards per game through the air this season, with just seven passing touchdowns given up.
The Jags also come in ranked 17th nationally in Passing EPA allowed and 44th in preventing pass explosives.
Arkansas State has been balanced offensively this season, and while the ground game hasn't held up its end of the deal, it should have success against a South Alabama run defense that's allowing over five yards per carry this season and ranks just 105th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
The Red Wolves have been wildly inefficient offensively, seeing numerous drives stall in the red zone. Their recent contests have trended under, including last week against Texas State. In that game, the Red Wolves had 10 points through three quarters before exploding for 21 in the final frame.
South Alabama is a desperate team and should be fully locked in to get some momentum as it tries to salvage its season.
I expect the Jags to lean on their rushing attack and salt the second half away against an Arkansas State run defense that ranks 118th nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
Look for Davenport, the South Alabama QB, to extend drives with his legs and keep that Jaguar offense on the field in key moments.
South Alabama picks up the win at home, as Arkansas State fails to surpass its posted team total in this Tuesday night tussle.
Pick: Arkansas State Team Total Under 26.5 (Play to 24.5)
Arkansas State vs South Alabama Betting Trends
