The Auburn Tigers take on the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman, Oklahoma, on Saturday, Sept. 20. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Oklahoma is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. Auburn, meanwhile, is a +6.5 underdog and comes in at +205 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The cover/under sits at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Auburn vs. Oklahoma prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Auburn vs Oklahoma Prediction
- Auburn vs. Oklahoma Pick: Oklahoma -6.5 or Better
My Oklahoma vs. Auburn best bet is on the Sooners to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Auburn vs Oklahoma Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -108 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +205 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -112 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -250 |
- Auburn vs Oklahoma Spread: Oklahoma -6.5 Auburn +6.5
- Auburn vs Oklahoma Over/Under: 47.5 Points
- Auburn vs Oklahoma Moneyline: Auburn +205, Oklahoma -250
Auburn vs Oklahoma College Football Betting Preview
Auburn Tigers Betting Preview: Defensive Struggles
Jackson Arnold has enjoyed new life as an SEC quarterback at Auburn since transferring from Oklahoma. The junior has thrown for more than 500 yards with four touchdowns on the season.
An opening win over Baylor can be directly attributed to his career-high 150 rushing yards.
The Tigers have overcome a pitiful 2024 offensive campaign, backed by an explosive group of wide receivers and a Finishing Drives rank inside the top 10.
While the offense has been able to open up the playbook for head coach Hugh Freeze, the defense has shown struggles in different areas.
Baylor executed on 13 passes that exceeded 12 yards, while South Alabama generated a methodical drive on nearly every possession.
Auburn resides outside the top 100 in both Defensive Rush and Pass EPA, giving up explosives in both standard downs and passing downs.
After missing 17 tackles against Baylor, the Tigers would miss another 15 against South Alabama in Week 3.
Oklahoma Sooners Betting Preview: Booming Sooners
Quarterback John Mateer has conducted a new-look, explosive offense for Oklahoma. The Washington State transfer has coordinator Ben Arbuckle's offense in the top 50 in Success Rate, with a top-40 number in Finishing Drives.
On 11 drives that have crossed the opponent's 40-yard line, the Sooners have averaged a huge 5.4 points per opportunity.
Oklahoma's top four targets have combined for 59 catches and an average of at least 12 yards per catch.
The return to play-calling for head coach Brett Venables has paid dividends for Oklahoma on the defensive side of the ball.
The Sooners are the second-best pass defense in terms of Success Rate and have also generated a top-10 mark in Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed.
Third downs have been a nightmare for offenses facing Oklahoma, as the Sooners have allowed just 7-of-41 attempts to be converted.
Auburn vs Oklahoma Pick, Betting Analysis
Despite toppling Baylor, Auburn had a number of red flags pop up. The Bears beat the Tigers in overall yards per play while exposing a secondary that has issues in coverage and tackling fundamentals.
Auburn ranks 105th in tackle grading, per PFF. That could be troublesome against the top four targets in Oklahoma's passing attack, as Deion Burks, Keontez Lewis, Isaiah Sategna and Jaren Kanak have forced 17 missed tackles after the catch.
Auburn will look to continue to play Cover 3 and quarters against Oklahoma, but a coverage grade of 122nd could spell trouble against the Sooners.
Furthermore, Mateer has engineered one of the most dangerous offenses in the nation when behind the chains.
Oklahoma sits 11th in Passing Downs Success Rate and 22nd in explosives, compared to an Auburn defense that sits outside the top 100 in explosive allowed in later downs.
Pick: Oklahoma -6.5 or Better
