Auburn at Ole Miss Betting Odds & Pick: What’s Wrong With Bo Nix and the Tigers? (Saturday, Oct. 24)
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Corral.
Auburn at Ole Miss Betting Odds
|Auburn Odds||-3.5 [BET NOW]|
|Ole Miss Odds||+3.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-159/+125 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||72 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, 12 p.m. ET|
After getting upset in Columbia last weekend, the Auburn Tigers are now at a disappointing 2-2 after entering into the season with high expectations. The Tiger offense has been a shell of what it looked like in 2019 and will have to refocus to avoid another upset in Oxford on Saturday.
Lane Kiffin’s offense might be the most exciting in college football, but the Rebel defense hasn’t done the team any favors in 2020. The Rebels are 1-3 but have been in every game they’ve played. They gave Alabama a scare for three quarters two weeks ago, so Ole Miss is certainly capable of pulling off an upset at home against a reeling Auburn squad.
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Bo Nix has clearly regressed in his sophomore season; he’s only averaging 6.1 yards per attempt. He’s put up two terrible performances on the road, including a three-interception showing against South Carolina last weekend. The biggest problem for Nix is the lack of a stable offensive line to block for him. All five starters are gone from last season, and so far in 2020, the Tigers have allowed 10 sacks in their first four games.
If Nix actually receives time to throw, he has possibly the best wide receiver combination in the SEC with Seth Williams and Anthony Schwartz. So far, though, those two wideouts haven’t seen near their 2019 production.
Auburn has run the ball with solid success this season, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. However, behind a bad offensive line, it’s hard to imagine that average is going to continue as the season goes along. Last year’s leading rusher, JaTarvious Whitlow, transferred in the offseason, which meant Tank Bigsby was thrust into the starting role. He’s produced great numbers so far, averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
The defensive side of the ball is in a period of transition right now. Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson were two of the best defensive linemen in the SEC last season but have moved on to the NFL. Auburn does have the talent to replace them, and it’s been pretty stout against the run, allowing only 3.7 yards per carry. However, the Tigers have struggled to put pressure on the quarterback. They haven’t created turnovers, ranking 60th in Havoc.
The biggest issues for the Tigers this season have come in their secondary. All four starters from last season departed, and they’ve struggled mightily against the pass. The Tigers are allowing a whopping 7.8 yards per pass attempt and rank 70th Defensive Passing Success. That’s going to be a big issue on Saturday because Ole Miss has one of the best passing attacks in the country.
Ole Miss Rebels
The Lane Train is full steam ahead.
Sophomore quarterback Matt Corral is throwing the ball for a ridiculous 10.1 yards per attempt. However, he had his worst game of the season against Arkansas last week, throwing six interceptions. But in his first three games, he accumulated over 1,000 yards passing with nine touchdowns and only one interception against three of the best defenses in the SEC (Florida, Alabama and Kentucky).
Corral has a fantastic connection with Elijah Moore, who is averaging 10.5 catches and 144 yards per game this year. He will be a big problem for Auburn’s inexperienced secondary on Saturday.
Not only does Ole Miss have an elite passing attack, but its running game has also been solid. Jerrion Ealy has backed up his stellar freshman season, running the ball for 5.2 yards per attempt. With four starters back on the offensive line, Kiffin’s offense may be one of the best in the SEC.
The Rebels are having all sorts of issues on the defensive side of the ball. They returned 64% of their defensive production from 2019, but things have gotten worse in 2020.
Ole Miss is allowing the most yards per play in the country at 7.5. It’s had issues defending both the run and the pass, allowing 6.2 yards per rush and 9.8 yards per pass attempt.
Ole Miss is really thin up front and in the secondary. If Auburn is going to get back on track on offense, Saturday will be its best opportunity.
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Betting Analysis & Pick
With a total set at 70, this game is most likely going to be very high-scoring. There’s no doubt that Ole Miss can’t stop anybody on defense, but its offense is elite and should be able to make up for its defensive woes.
With Nix starting to regress, it’s possible the Tigers won’t find a way to keep pace with Kiffin’s offense.
I have Ole Miss projected as -2.67 favorites at home, so I think there’s some value on the Rebels at +3. However, I would only play it down to +1.5.
Pick: Ole Miss +3 (down to +1.5)