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Ball State vs Miami (OH) Odds & Predictions: Our Top Pick for Tuesday

Ball State vs Miami (OH) Odds & Predictions: Our Top Pick for Tuesday article feature image

Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Miami (OH)’s Jack Coldiron (89), Keyon Mozee (3), and Rusty Feth (60).

Ball State vs Miami (OH) Odds

Tuesday, Nov. 22
7 p.m. ET
Ball State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-110o / -110u
Miami (OH) Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-110o / -110u
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Neither Ball State nor Miami (OH) are in the running for a berth in the MAC title game, but this game still has huge implications for these two programs.

The winner of this game will move to 6-6, while the loser will be done for the season at 5-7. For these MAC schools, making a bowl game appearance can be a huge deal and go a long way in determining the future of the program.

In these MAC games, the programs are typically on such a level playing field in terms of talent that it’s hard to find a difference between them. The close margin is what makes MACtion enjoyable.

But there’s one specific unit in this game that stands out enough to be a difference-maker in this matchup.

Ball State Cardinals

Cardinals Offense

Ball State has had a tough time on offense this season. The Cardinals rank 93rd in Success Rate, 86th in Points per Opportunity and 117th in explosiveness.

Neither its running nor passing games are particularly successful, which may cause problems against a stout Miami (OH) defense.

Ball State passes at the 27th-highest rate in the nation, ranking 78th in Passing Success Rate, 103rd in PPA and 129th in explosiveness through the air. Quarterback John Paddock has 449 attempts this season for just 2,606 yards, an average of just 5.8 yards per attempt.

They also come in at 97th in Rushing Success Rate and 92nd in Rushing PPA. That won’t cut it against Miami, which may have the toughest run defense in the MAC.

Cardinals Defense

This Cardinal defense’s main strength is preventing explosive plays. They rank 18th overall in explosiveness allowed, including 16th against the pass and 56th against the run. This will help counter the one strength of Miami’s offense.

Ball State’s ability to keep opponents out of the end zone also stands out. Despite ranking 79th in Defensive Success Rate, the Cardinals come in at 46th in Points Allowed per Opportunity.

As far as ways to attack this Cardinals defense, they’re about equal. This team ranks 83rd in Rushing Success Rate compared to 76th against the pass.

Miami is typically a run-heavy team, so I would expect the RedHawks to stick with that approach in this matchup.

Miami RedHawks

RedHawks Offense

It’s safe to say that Miami’s offense is not the unit that got it to 5-6. This offense ranks 122nd in Success Rate and comes in as the 127th-best unit in the country, per SP+.

The RedHawks primarily lean on a run game that can rip off a big play from time to time. However, this unit is relatively ineffective overall.

Miami ranks 128th in Rushing Success Rate and 115th in Rushing PPA. Yet, it runs the ball at the 40th-highest rate in the nation.

The best part of this offense is clearly its explosiveness on the ground. The RedHawks boast the eighth-most explosive rushing offense in FBS.

Passing the ball has not been a strong suit for Miami either, ranking 83rd in Passing Success Rate and 101st in Passing PPA. It’s somewhat explosive through the air as well, sitting 53rd in passing explosiveness.

RedHawks Defense

This RedHawks defense has been legitimately good this season, especially against the run. Overall, this unit ranks 46th in Success Rate and 14th in Points per Opportunity. It generates a great deal of Havoc for opposing teams, ranking eighth nationally in that area.

This is the 37th-best defense in the country, according to SP+, which far exceeds what the typical mark for a MAC school.

The RedHawks rank just 83rd in Defensive Passing Success Rate and 101st in PPA, but they haven’t faced many pass-heavy offenses this season.

The rushing game is where this defense truly stands out. Miami ranks 27th in Rushing Success Rate and 12th in Rushing PPA. They’re also the 10th-best defense in the country at limiting explosive rushing plays.

Ball State vs Miami (OH) Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ball State and Miami (OH) match up statistically:

Ball State Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
Rush Success 97 27
Line Yards 59 35
Pass Success 78 83
Pass Blocking** 57 107
Havoc 8 74
Finishing Drives 86 14
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Miami (OH) Offense vs. Ball State Defense
Rush Success 128 83
Line Yards 83 89
Pass Success 97 76
Pass Blocking** 84 100
Havoc 95 86
Finishing Drives 106 46
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 19 81
PFF Coverage 64 93
SP+ Special Teams 99 33
Seconds per Play 22.2 (9) 29.5 (119)
Rush Rate 45.9% (112) 60.7% (20)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Ball State vs Miami (OH) Betting Pick

Without a doubt, the best unit on the field on Tuesday night will be Miami’s defense. Because of that, I think it will find a way to edge out Ball State at home to become bowl-eligible.

Three is such a key number, especially in a low-scoring game, so I wouldn’t bet this over that number.

Pick: Miami (OH) -2.5 (Play to -3)

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