The Baylor Bears take on the SMU Mustangs in Dallas, Texas. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on The CW.
SMU is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. Baylor, meanwhile, comes in at +2.5 and +115 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The total is set at 63 total points.
Here’s my Baylor vs. SMU prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 6.
Baylor vs SMU Prediction
- Baylor vs. SMU Pick: Baylor +3 or Better
My SMU vs. Baylor best bet is on the Bears to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Baylor vs SMU Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 63 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 63 -110o / -110u | -135 |
- Baylor vs SMU Spread: SMU -2.5, Baylor +2.5
- Baylor vs SMU Over/Under: 63
- Baylor vs SMU Moneyline: Baylor +115, SMU -135
Baylor vs SMU College Football Betting Preview
I'm buying Baylor this week after its defense got shredded by Jackson Arnold and the Auburn rushing attack in Week 1.
The Tigers dominated in the trenches, but the test likely won't be as difficult this week, especially against an SMU rushing attack that struggled to get push in a sloppy effort against East Texas A&M.
It's also worth noting that SMU might be without a starting receiver and linebacker, who were both hurt in the opener.
So, what went wrong for Baylor last week?
The offensive line had issues at times, but you can't really fault Sawyer Robertson and company. They finished with more yards and a higher yards per play (6.7!), even with a long run getting called back due to a questionable hold.
They just shot themselves in the foot inside the red zone a few times, coming away with no points. Auburn also had a kick-return touchdown, which certainly didn't help matters.
The problems came on the defensive side of the ball.
Head coach Dave Aranda talked about stopping the run countless times leading up to the game, but he simply sat back in coverage, allowing Auburn to run for over 300 yards.
The lack of adjustments was concerning, especially once they lost stud defensive lineman Jackie Marshall (with another key defender banged up along the interior) in the first quarter.
They just didn't have the horses up front to slow Baylor down without help.
I'd imagine the game plan changes some on that side of the ball, where they should see the return of a key defensive back and don't have to face Auburn's elite wide receiver corps.
However, even that same approach should have much more success against a more pass-heavy SMU offensive attack that looks as if it won't have an elite ground game.
Baylor vs SMU Pick, Betting Analysis
Ultimately, I just trust the Baylor offense more at this point, especially against an SMU defense that lost an abundance of talent from a dominant 2024 unit.
The line has moved from +4.5 earlier in the week, but I'm hoping a +3 pops again.
I project the Bears as underdogs of +1.8, so I'd bet them at +3 or better.
Pick: Baylor +3 or Better
