The Bowling Green Falcons take on the Iowa State Cyclones in Ames, Iowa, on Saturday, Sept. 19. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Iowa State is favored by -23.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -3500. Bowling Green, meanwhile, enters as a +23.5 underdog and is +1280 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 44.5 total points.
Here’s my Bowling Green vs. Iowa State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 19.
Bowling Green vs Iowa State Prediction
- Bowling Green vs. Iowa State Pick: Iowa State 1H -12.5
My Iowa State vs. Bowling Green best bet is on the Cyclones to cover the first-half spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Bowling Green vs Iowa State Odds
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -110 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | +1280 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -110 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | -3500 |
- Bowling Green vs Iowa State point spread: Iowa State -23.5 (-110), Bowling Green +23.5 (-108)
- Bowling Green vs Iowa State over/under: 44.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Bowling Green vs Iowa State moneyline: Bowling Green +1280, Iowa State -3500
Bowling Green vs Iowa State College Football Preview
Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview: One of the Nation's Worst
When you think about the FBS' worst team this year, who comes to mind? Sacramento State? ULM? Charlotte?
What about Bowling Green?
Through two games, the Falcons have lost to FCS Tarleton State (as slight favorites) and gained just 28% of available yards against Nebraska in a 56-7 loss.
The offense has no juice — no creative play-calling, no standouts in the skill rooms and line play that isn't good enough to run the ball like head coach Eddie George wants.
As I mentioned last week, BGSU fumbled its offensive coordinator hire, spending three months searching just to promote Greg Nosal — who was on the offensive staff of the coordinator George fired — from within. That shows with a pathetic attempt at a scoring unit.
The defense is fine against similarly talented teams, but it was completely helpless against Nebraska and, at times, bad against Tarleton. It's simply not a good enough unit to offset the disastrous deficiencies on offense.
Quarterback Jay Kastantin showed some flashes of competence when his offensive line wasn't being completely overtaken, but he appears to have a limited ceiling (telling me that Austin Novosad lost the job, as opposed to Kastantin winning it).
When teams lack in talent, especially offensively, you have to focus on doing one thing exceptionally well.
Maybe that one thing is running tempo; maybe it's putting the offense in the hands of the quarterback to improvise. Perhaps it's sequencing your plays in a clever way to disguise your approach and force the defense to play flat-footed and with even numbers.
Bowling Green does none of that, and its offense is one of the worst and slowest in the country. By the time Halloween comes around, don't be shocked if power ratings put BG down near 138th.
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview: Hanging In There
In a year supposed to be marred by turnover and a roster that's not up to snuff, Jimmy Rogers has Iowa State off to a respectable start. Last week, it hung right with a good Iowa team, holding the offense to just 16 points in a late-game loss.
Iowa State forced the Hawkeyes to a mark of just 5-of-15 on third down and held that offense in check without logging a single turnover.
Although Iowa's top back suffered an injury, the Cyclones defense limited the offense to just one explosive play, and the second-level run defense was exceptional.
This wasn't a fluke; it was a genuinely good defensive performance.
The week before, Iowa State's defense forced three turnovers and had an opportunity at two more fumbles that Southeast Missouri State recovered.
Defensive end Isaac Terrell logged three sacks himself in that game, but the pass rush was nonexistent against Iowa. The SEMO performance may have been the team-wide outlier in the pass rush.
While the defense has built some confidence through two games, the offense is of some concern.
Quarterback Jaylen Raynor combined for four touchdowns against SEMO, but he completed just 8-of-16 passes and followed that up with 10 completions for 117 yards.
It's one of the slowest-paced offenses in the country — Iowa State averaged a new play against Iowa every 34.3 seconds! — which doesn't appear to just be a game-plan specific concern. It's a run-first offense, but lead back Aiden Flora doesn't have a ton of pop.
In games where Iowa State plays a game where it's a sizable underdog against a potent offense (like against Utah next week), the Cyclones could really get buried fast. But we'll tackle that in the future.
Bowling Green vs Iowa State Pick, Betting Analysis
This total opened at a conservative 47.5 points and was bet down quickly. By Monday morning, that had crashed a whole field goal to 44.5, where it sits now.
If you got ahead of the fall, that's a great position to have given Iowa State's slow tempo and Bowling Green's complete offensive ineptitude.
In both games this year, Iowa State has gotten off to a fast start. It led 28-0 at the half against SEMO and 10-0 in the second quarter against Iowa.
Bowling Green's MO this season has been slow starts. It has one first-half drive of more than 30 yards and seven drives of four or fewer plays. In total, Bowling Green has been outscored, 52-7.
The way this line shakes out, Iowa State is favored by fewer than two touchdowns in the first half at home.
Expect Iowa State to sit on the ball and sustain drives while BGSU struggles to piece together first downs against a pretty stout defense (so far). The Cyclones are more than capable of mounting a two-score lead by halftime.
Pick: Iowa State 1H -12.5 (Play to -13.5)
Bowling Green vs Iowa State Betting Trends
