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Toledo vs Bowling Green Odds, Picks | How to Bet Tuesday’s MAC Game

Toledo vs Bowling Green Odds, Picks | How to Bet Tuesday’s MAC Game article feature image

Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Toledo cornerback Chris McDonald.

Toledo vs Bowling Green Odds

Tuesday, Nov. 15
7 p.m. ET
Toledo Odds
-110o / -110u
Bowling Green Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

As the college football season winds down, we’ll only have a few more chances to appreciate some midweek MACtion — and this is one of them.

This week, Bowling Green will travel to Toledo to take on the Rockets in what could be a pivotal division battle.

Toledo has been the best team in the MAC this season, and it's the favorite to win the conference. Toledo already clinched its spot in the MAC Championship last week with its win over Ball State.

Bowling Green has been one of the biggest surprises in the MAC this year, sitting at 5-5 and looking at earning bowl eligibility for the first time since 2015. Prior to the season, BGSU had a win total set at 4.5, which it has already exceeded. 

The road will be tough over the next two weeks with Toledo and Ohio on the schedule, but there's still a path for the Falcons to win the MAC East if they can pull off those upsets.

Toledo Rockets

Rockets Offense

Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn returned to action last week after missing the previous week with a shoulder injury. He returned in style against Ball State, putting up 301 yards and three touchdowns through the air on the day. 

Finn has been very strong this year and has helped lead this Toledo team toward a potential conference championship. The Rockets rank 40th in Passing Success Rate to go along with ranks of 28th in explosiveness and 14th in PPA. 

Toledo’s rushing game hasn’t been quite as strong as its passing game. It rushes at the 28th-highest rate in the country but comes in at 70th in Rushing Success Rate and 61st in Rushing PPA.

The Rockets offense is the 37th-best unit in the country, per PFF, and the 63rd-best, according to SP+. Jason Candle’s squad should be able to outmatch the Falcons, as both of these marks are well above what they'll be facing on Tuesday.

Rockets Defense

Toledo’s defense has been one of the best in the MAC this season, if not the best. The Rockets rank 18th in Defensive Success Rate, including 18th against the run and 35th against the pass. 

Toledo ranks 10th in coverage and 18th in run defense, according to PFF. These numbers aren’t scheduled-adjusted, but they do give a good indication as to how sound this defense is.

The Rockets' one Achilles’ heel this season has been allowing explosive rushing plays to kill them. Despite their overall success in the run game, the Toledo defense ranks 115th in rushing explosiveness allowed, which causes it to rank just 76th in rushing PPA.

Fortunately for the Rockets, Bowling Green ranks 111th in rushing explosiveness, so these issues in the run game shouldn't arise for Toledo.

Bowling Green Falcons

Falcons Offense

Bowling Green's success this year has come almost exclusively from its defense. The Falcons enter as the 100th-best offense, according to SP+, and rank 101st in FBS in Offensive Success Rate.

Their play-calling skews more toward the pass, as they throw at the 42nd-highest rate in the country. Bowling Green’s passing game ranks 97th in Success Rate, while the running game ranks 96th.

Generating explosive plays has been a problem for this Bowling Green rushing attack, as the Falcons rank 122nd in rushing PPA.

Another key issue has been its lack of pass blocking, ranking 96th in PFF pass-blocking grade. This may end up causing some issues for quarterback Matt McDonald, who's facing a solid Toledo pass rush.

Falcons Defense

Bowling Green’s defense has helped carry the team to five wins this season, but it's a tough unit to figure out. Overall, this team ranks 66th in Success Rate and 19th in Havoc, but it sits 80th in explosiveness and 85th in Finishing Drives.

The Falcons defense has made its hay in the run game this year. It ranks an impressive 29th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed but has struggled in allowing big plays. For this reason, the Falcons rank 116th in explosiveness and 70th in PPA against the run.

However, their passing defense has been quite the opposite. They rank just 94th in Defensive Passing Success Rate, but they rarely allow big plays. In fact, the Falcons rank 21st in passing explosiveness allowed and 62nd in PPA. 

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Toledo vs Bowling Green Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Bowling Green match up statistically:

Bowling Green Offense vs. Toledo Defense
Rush Success9518
Line Yards10744
Pass Success9634
Pass Blocking**9635
Finishing Drives126119
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Toledo Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
Rush Success6828
Line Yards43103
Pass Success3894
Pass Blocking**8419
Finishing Drives1684
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling10513
PFF Coverage4810
SP+ Special Teams117101
Seconds per Play26.4 (65)24.2 (26)
Rush Rate50.1% (88)57.6% (37)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Toledo vs Bowling Green Betting Pick

The key matchup in this game will be Toledo’s passing offense against this Bowling Green pass defense.

If Finn can have a successful day and move the ball, then I expect Toledo’s offense to have a good day. But given Bowling Green’s ability to plug up the run, the Rockets will be in trouble if they can't move the ball through the air.

I don’t think Bowling Green’s offense will have any answers for Toledo’s strong defense.

With the questions surrounding the Rockets offense, I like the under in this game. The strength of the Bowling Green defense matches up with this Toledo attack in a way that should turn this into a low-scoring rock fight.

Pick: Under 51 ⋅ Play to 49.5

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