The Buffalo Bulls take on the Central Michigan Chippewas in Mount Pleasant, Michigan, on Wednesday, Nov. 12. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Central Michigan is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -120. Buffalo, meanwhile, enters as a +1.5 underdog and is +100 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 44 total points.
Here’s my Buffalo vs. Central Michigan prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, November 12.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan Prediction
- Buffalo vs. Central Michigan Pick: Central Michigan -1 (Play to -2.5)
My Central Michigan vs. Buffalo best bet is on the Chippewas to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan Odds
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Central Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -120 |
- Buffalo vs Central Michigan Spread: Central Michigan -1.5, Buffalo +1.5
- Buffalo vs Central Michigan Over/Under: 44 Points
- Buffalo vs Central Michigan Moneyline: Buffalo +100, Central Michigan -120
Buffalo vs Central Michigan College Football Betting Preview
Buffalo Bulls Betting Preview: Numbers Don't Back Up Record
Wednesday night’s MAC battle between Buffalo and Central Michigan sets up as a prime regression spot for the Bulls. This is a team whose 5-4 record looks far better on paper than its underlying performance metrics suggest.
Buffalo has feasted on the bottom of the conference, with most of its wins coming against struggling programs like Kent State, Bowling Green, UMass and Akron. Not to mention, most of those wins came by one possession.
Strip away their overall record, and the data paints a far less flattering picture.
The Buffalo offense ranks 99th nationally in EPA Per Pass and a dismal 128th in EPA Per Rush, racking up just 39% of available yards to rank 108th nationally.
The Bulls’ inability to sustain drives is beyond abysmal. They rank 134th in third- and fourth-down Success Rate (31.8%), meaning nearly seven out of every 10 possessions stall before midfield.
Their early-down efficiency (95th) is also bottom-tier, forcing them to average almost seven yards to go on third downs.
When you combine that lack of consistency with a modest starting field position, it’s clear their offense simply hasn’t been moving the ball against competent defenses.
I can't stress enough how fortunate the Bulls have been, and I'm willing to chalk last week up to another outlier.
Central Michigan Chippewas Betting Preview: Steady Improvements for Chips
Central Michigan’s defense isn’t elite, but it’s far steadier than people give it credit for.
The Chippewas rank 53rd against the pass in EPA allowed and 44th on early downs — two critical areas against a Buffalo offense that struggles to stay on schedule.
CMU’s run defense can be leaky at times, but Buffalo’s ground attack isn’t built to exploit it. The Bulls average a negative EPA on the ground and lack explosiveness between the tackles.
Central Michigan’s defense has also been opportunistic in key moments, forcing teams into long-yardage situations where it ranks near the national average in getting off the field. If the Chips can keep the Bulls in long downs and distances, it will give their offense a fighting chance to put points on the board.
Where this game tilts most heavily is when the Chips have the ball.
Buffalo’s defense has looked respectable on paper, ranking 58th in EPA Per Pass allowed and 50th in EPA Per Rush allowed. However, much of that comes from playing an extremely weak slate of opposing offenses.
Buffalo's available yards allowed figure looks inflated, given how many low-level MAC attacks it has faced. But the Bulls have shown cracks against more balanced teams, particularly when they fails to win the field-position battle.
Central Michigan’s offense isn’t anything special, but it’s efficient enough to exploit those weaknesses. The Chippewas rank 35th nationally in EPA Per Pass, a quietly strong metric that suggests their passing game is far more productive than its reputation.
They've gotten a lot more from their quarterback play than expected in the preseason, but they need to improve their early-down passing efficiency. That shouldn't matter much here, as I expect their offense to stay on schedule.
The Chips aren't built for high-scoring games, but against a defense that struggles to defend the intermediate pass like Buffalo’s, CMU can consistently move the chains and control the tempo.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan Pick, Betting Analysis
Situationally, this game heavily favors Central Michigan. Buffalo has played close, turnover-aided games to scrape by mediocre teams, and regression tends to hit hard in spots like this.
Playing on the road in November in typical MACtion weather against a physical team that can limit possessions sounds like trouble for the Bulls.
Central Michigan’s offense should find enough rhythm through the air to build an early lead, while its defense forces Buffalo’s inefficient offense into third-and-long situations all night.
The Chippewas have the stronger underlying profile, better early-down metrics and home-field advantage in a game where efficiency and execution matter more than raw record.
Fade the inflated record; this is the perfect spot to sell high on Buffalo.
Pick: Central Michigan -1 (Play to -2.5)
Buffalo vs Central Michigan Betting Trends
