The Buffalo Bulls take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in State College, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, Sept. 19. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network.
Penn State is favored by -40.5 points on the spread. Buffalo, meanwhile, enters as a +40.5 underdog and is +8000 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
Here’s my Buffalo vs. Penn State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 19.
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Buffalo vs Penn State Prediction
- Buffalo vs. Penn State Pick: Under 48.5
My Penn State vs. Buffalo best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Buffalo vs Penn State Odds
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+40.5 -105 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | +8000 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-40.5 -115 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | |
- Buffalo vs Penn State point spread: Penn State -40.5, Buffalo +40.5
- Buffalo vs Penn State over/under: 49.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Buffalo vs Penn State moneyline: Buffalo +8000
Buffalo vs Penn State College Football Preview
Buffalo Bulls Betting Preview: Can Bulls Find Something?
Buffalo enters this game with one win and one loss, although it would be fair to categorize both performances as uninspiring.
The Bulls gave up 540 yards in a 13-point loss to FIU last week, with 386 of those yards coming through the air. A week earlier, Buffalo needed a late touchdown and a red-zone stop to defeat FCS Albany in regulation.
While it hasn't looked the best, the one thing Buffalo has done well could bode well toward frustrating Penn State if it holds up in Happy Valley.
Buffalo has refused to give up big plays on the ground, ranking seventh nationally in explosiveness allowed on the ground and 44th in the country in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
All in all, the Bulls are allowing just 3.2 yards per rush on 70 attempts through two contests.
Head coach Pete Lembo is entering his third season at Buffalo, and the results have been a mixed bag. In his opening season, the Bulls went 9-4 with very low expectations before entering last season picked to finish well in the MAC and stumbling to a losing season.
There have been plenty of personnel changes since, but even in a down year, Lembo has kept things within striking distance against the best of the best.
Last season, Buffalo lost, 23-10, to Minnesota, and in his only other game at Buffalo against a power conference opponent, he lost, 38-0, to Missouri in 2024.
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview: Trying to Get Ground Game Going
Penn State is off to an impressive start to the Matt Campbell era. Through two weeks, the new-look Nittany Lions have outscored Marshall and Temple by a combined score of 72-9.
While the season-opening victory over the Thundering Herd was a comprehensive rout, Penn State was tested a bit last week on the road at Temple, leading by just seven points at the half before pulling away late.
The Nittany Lions have been pressing to establish the run, and two sizable victories have led to game scripts conducive to just that. However, surprisingly, Penn State’s aggression in the run game has yet to yield the success it may have expected given the quality of the opponent.
Penn State ranks 35th nationally in rushing rate, running the ball on 58% of snaps. The problem is that it hasn't yet been effective on the ground, ranking 93rd nationally in Success Rate and 122nd in explosiveness on run plays.
The backfield split pairs Iowa State transfer Carson Hansen with Ohio State transfer James Peoples. Hansen has out-carried Peoples 30 carries to 15 through two contests, but neither has exploded on the ground yet, even against inferior defensive fronts.
The longest run for either back is just 13 yards, and they have zero touchdowns combined through two games.
Given the enormous spread, game script will likely give Penn State another chance to tune up its stagnant run game before facing Wisconsin next week as Big Ten play begins.
Buffalo vs Penn State Pick, Betting Analysis
While there are certainly prettier bets to make elsewhere on the slate during Week 2, the Penn State ground game leaves a lot to be desired.
There won't be any incentive for the Nittany Lions to run up the score or open up the playbook before facing Wisconsin next week, and their struggling rush attack plays into the one thing Buffalo has done well.
Interestingly, this spread opened as a bit of an anomaly, as Stuckey noted earlier this week. This is only the third FBS matchup in 20 seasons that opened with a spread of 40-plus points and a total in the 40s.
As Stuckey pointed out, the favorite covered and the under hit in both previous matchups.
Buffalo will have no answers offensively, but there are enough questions with the stagnant Penn State rushing attack to lead us toward the under here.
Pick: Under 48.5
Buffalo vs Penn State Betting Trends
