We've had a fantastic week of college football already. MACtion returned, and we had a couple of intriguing games on Thursday. So, why don't we keep it going?
Our college football writers broke down four matchups for Friday night's Week 11 college football action, including a couple of Power 4 showdowns in the Big Ten and Big 12, an American conference clash and an Ivy League battle in the FCS.
To be more specific, we're focusing on:
- Columbia vs. Harvard
- UCF vs. Houston
- Memphis vs. Tulane
- USC vs. Northwestern
Let's take a look at our college football best bets and NCAAF picks for Friday, November 7.
College Football Best Bets, Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Friday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Columbia vs Harvard Pick
By Joshua Nunn
The line on this game opened Harvard -25 and was quickly bet up, although it wasn’t widely available. Even a few wagers can cause a significant reaction. The line now sits at -28.5, and I'm waiting for more liquidity in the market before I make a play.
If we see Harvard -27.5 or better, I will fire away.
Harvard has an offense that Ivy League opponents can't stop. Craig is electric with the football, and the receivers have started to make plays in recent weeks.
I'm still waiting on the ground game to come full circle, as Xaviah Bascon and DJ Gordon are shifty and can score from anywhere on the field.
Harvard’s offensive line is elite and has allowed only six sacks and 22 tackles for loss this season.
I would expect very little pressure when Craig drops back to pass, as the Lions' defensive front isn't good at getting to the quarterback. Columbia has just six sacks this season, and PFF grades this pass rush at 101st in FCS.
The Columbia linebackers often get caught frozen in between run and pass coverage, and the indecisiveness has led to the secondary being shredded over the last four weeks.
While the passing yards allowed will never be eye-popping in the Ivy League, Columbia has allowed completions on 72% of attempts over the last four weeks with eight touchdown passes.
This Harvard defense grades out fifth in FCS in overall defense, per PFF, and second in the country in tackling prowess. The Crimson are disciplined, don't give up big plays and don't allow opponents to move the ball effectively on the ground.
Columbia doesn't have a strong passing game and has rotated between Chase Goodwin, Caleb Sanchez and Xander Menapace under center. These three have six combined touchdown passes while completing just 51% of their passes on the season.
Don’t expect much for Columbia through the air in this game.
There will be a major special teams mismatch in this game. Columbia has horrific special teams, as long returns, blocked kicks and miscellaneous gaffes have been a recurring theme this season.
Harvard has elite special teams, so I expect big punt returns, a blocked kick or some other form of special teams magic to help set the Crimson up with solid field position.
This is a matchup between the best team in the Ivy League against the worst team in the Ivy League.
This Harvard team is very strong, plays exceptionally sound and complementary football, and is well disciplined. I have no issue laying the number here; I just want to wait for a potentially better number before locking in a play.
Pick: Harvard -28.5 (Wait for -27.5)
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UCF vs Houston Pick
By Road to CFB
Coming off a shocking loss to West Virginia, Houston flipped from a -2.5 road favorite at open to an even shorter home favorite. The total was bet down a hair from 48.5 at open.
These two teams are familiar foes from the American, and this is their second meeting since joining the Big 12 (UCF won, 27-13, at home in 2023). UCF leads the all-time series, 8-3, and hasn’t dropped one since 2016 (3-0 since).
On the surface, making a 7-2 team a near underdog to a 4-4 one coming off a 30-3 loss doesn’t make much sense. But sharp action jumped on UCF under a field goal and bet it through zero at one point, and that shouldn’t be ignored.
After all, UCF clobbered West Virginia, 45-13, at home just two weeks before.
Houston quarterback Conner Weigman accounted for three turnovers last week and put two additional balls on the turf, while the Houston defense gave up more than 250 rushing yards on 53 carries.
This is Houston’s seventh consecutive game, six against Big 12 foes, and that can wear on a team.
And that’s how you have an outing in which an opposing team runs the ball 53 times for 250 yards.
But UCF doesn’t have that kind of offensive line or run game.
This isn’t Gus Malzahn calling the plays, and the Knights’ offensive line doesn’t generate much of a push up front — even in the 45-13 win over WVU, the Mountaineers doubled up the Knights in Line Yards.
Rather than bet against the heavy early line movement on the spread, I’m looking to bet the over here.
Houston is playing on tired legs — we saw that plenty with the line getting bullied and with several missed tackles on defense — which could lead to some cheap UCF scores.
I also think the Knights are a bit overvalued for a team that hasn’t shown much outside of that WVU game. Houston is undervalued coming off a game in which 17 points came off four turnovers — an irregularity for the 2025 Cougars.
Pick: Over 47.5 (Play to 48)
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Memphis vs Tulane Pick
By John Feltman
Tulane’s offense has been one of the most misleading units in the American Conference.
The Green Wave have piled up yardage, primarily through methodical drives, turnover luck and favorable field position. Still, the production hasn’t consistently translated — neither in the red zone, nor on third downs, nor on the scoreboard.
They rank inside the top 20 nationally in available yards percentage, yet sit far lower in the country in actual scoring — not because they can’t move the ball, but because they stall, settle and leave points behind.
Their early-down efficiency and sub-50% third-down success rate tell the same story that this offense has overperformed in yardage, not in points.
That matters in a betting market shaped more by perception than by reality. This offense is highly overrated, and we already saw a glimpse of regression last week against UTSA.
Memphis, meanwhile, has the exact type of offensive profile that quietly favors lower-scoring contests. Even when healthy, the Tigers prefer to run the ball.
They rank in the top five nationally in Rushing EPA, while Tulane’s rush defense is closer to mediocre. That advantage encourages Memphis to run first and run often, which shortens the game and limits total possessions.
Suppose quarterback Brendon Lewis is ruled out or even limited, which is absolutely on the table given his lower-body injury last week.
In that case, Memphis will lean into that identity even more. Without Lewis, we will see fewer chunk plays, fewer designed rollouts, fewer shots downfield, and more clock-bleeding drives.
What's important to note is that even if Lewis does play, the under still has a strong chance of cashing. His presence raises the ceiling slightly, but not enough to swing Memphis into a full shootout mode, especially against a Tulane defense that, while bendable, rarely breaks in the red zone.
When you combine Memphis’ ball-control style, Tulane’s statistical inflation, and both teams’ inconsistency converting drives into touchdowns, the math starts pulling the total downward.
The strengths of each team work against offensive explosiveness, and I would be surprised to see either team string together nonstop explosive plays.
The most realistic game script is that both teams will be bleeding clock, and it is not a given that they will be able to capitalize in the red zone. I love the under here, and I would consider backing Tulane with the points if Lewis is officially ruled out.
Pick: Under 54
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USC vs Northwestern Pick
By John Feltman
The best way to attack this matchup is by isolating USC’s offense and playing the Trojans’ team total over.
Every data point in this matchup suggests USC — which has a top-tier efficiency profile again this season — is set up to score early and often against a Northwestern defense that doesn’t match up.
I've said this for a long time now, but there's no question: USC has the best offensive unit in the entire country.
The Trojans rank second nationally in EPA Per Pass and 14th in EPA Per Rush, showing this is still one of the nation's most explosive and well-balanced offenses.
At the same time, Northwestern’s defense sits outside the top 75 in run defense and gives up 48.3% of available yards — a bottom-tier number that signals sustained drives, chunk plays and red-zone trips that almost always lead to points.
USC’s offense is also elite on money downs, converting over 53% of third- and fourth-down attempts. That pairs well with Northwestern, which allows opponents to convert nearly 48% of theirs.
The Trojans’ third-ranked early downs EPA mark means they play ahead of schedule, control tempo and force defenses to panic.
Even better for this bet, USC doesn’t need help from its defense.
In fact, the Trojans’ defensive inconsistency actually benefits an over because if Northwestern can extend drives at all, USC will be forced to stay aggressive for four quarters instead of bleeding clock with a lead.
The reason I want to attack the team total instead of laying the large number is that I have questions about the Trojans defense.
They're mediocre against the run, which tells me the 'Cats will be able to extend drives and potentially put points on the board.
I also don't believe in Northwestern quarterback Preston Stone, as he can be very prone to mistakes at times. If he turns the ball over often, that will give the Trojans offense a short field to work with.
Also, USC leads the country in available yards gained at 64.6%, proving it doesn't need short fields to score touchdowns.
Injuries don’t meaningfully change my position on this either. Wideout Ja’Kobi Lane is questionable, but USC’s receiver room and passing structure are deep enough that his status won't change much.
Northwestern, meanwhile, doesn’t have the defensive front or secondary flexibility to handle a USC offense that thrives on spacing, early-down success and matchup-based passing.
It's also important to note that the 'Cats haven't faced an offense like this all season. It's a bad travel spot, too.
Pick: USC Team Total Over 33.5
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