Friday College Football Betting Picks, Odds: UCF vs. Tulsa & Washington vs. Oregon State
Jennifer Buchanan, USA Today Sports.
- Central Florida is a 17-point favorite over Tulsa, and Washington is -10.5 against Oregon State on Friday's 2-game college football slate.
- Find a preview of each game below, along with our experts' favorite bets.
UCF at Tulsa Betting Odds
- Spread: UCF -17
- Over/Under: 69.5
- Time: Friday, 7 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN 2
UCF at Tulsa Line Movement
For much of the week, this spread was reacting as expected to a 77% backing of Central Florida. Opening numbers varied as some of the earliest numbers were inside of 14, but by the time most books released the spread it was already past the two-touchdown point. Still, given the Knights’ popularity, oddsmakers increased the line up to 17 by Wednesday, and a few shops even went past that mark, only to be slammed back by some bigger bettors.
The spread now sits at a flat 17 as the 23% of bettors on Tulsa have accounted for 58% of actual money.
The total hasn’t seen quite as much movement, but it does feature a similar discrepancy between bets and dollars. With the 46% of bettors on the under generating 59% of money, the number has dropped a bit from 70.5 to 69.5. — Danny Donahue
Market data accurate as of Friday evening and via Sports Insights.
Collin Wilson: The Market Is Underrating Tulsa's Defense
It doesn't take long for money to flood the market when Central Florida is favored by multiple scores in a primetime weeknight game. Like clockwork, the market opens and steam comes in on the Knights before any underdog money shows up.
Circa Sports opened this game at UCF -12.5 on Sunday and predictably that number took off. Tulsa comes into this game on a five-game losing streak and, perhaps more importantly, are not bowl eligible since they have seven losses on the season.
If Tulsa is still motivated to finish this season strong, there is reason to believe the Golden Hurricanes can keep this game within the number. Tulsa covered the spread against Memphis, Cincinnati and SMU thanks to an improved 3-3-5 defense that ranks 22nd in opponent passing success rate. Tulsa's defense also does a great job keeping teams out of the end zone, ranking 29th in opponent red zone scoring.
Bookmakers are expecting plenty of points, but our projections have this total at 63 points. If Tulsa is able to cut down Central Florida's passing game, we could see plenty of punts as both of these defenses rank inside the top 30 in opponent 3rd-down conversion percentage.
Our projected spread for this game is UCF -14, so there is some value on the underdog, but I'm hoping this number ticks above 17 before I get involved. As for the total, I'm keying in on the Under at 71 or higher.
Pick: Tulsa +17.5 or better, Under 71 or better
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Washington at Oregon State Betting Odds
- Spread: Washington -10
- Over/Under: 65
- Time: Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1
Washington at Oregon State Line Movement
Generally a Washington vs. Oregon State matchup would lead to a heavy Huskies backing (and it still could with more time until kickoff), but this game is split nearly right down the middle. Fifty-one percent of bets generating 48% of money have hit Washington to this point, and the line has stayed in the 10/10.5-point range.
The total has remained even more stagnant, refusing to budge from 65, though the lack of movement is actually fairly interesting given that 72% of bets and almost all the money (97%) have hit the over. I’d expect those percentages, specifically the money, to revert back a bit toward even as this game approaches, though. — Danny Donahue
Market data accurate as of Thursday evening and via Sports Insights.
Collin Wilson: Will Washington Be Motivated?
If you've been investing in Oregon State football games, you knew a breakthrough was coming. Early season covers in short losses against Hawaii and Stanford proved that this team was on the cusp of getting back to respectability.
Oddsmakers opened Oregon State with a season win total of 2 and that could end up being the worst future the books put out this summer. The Beavers boast a 4-4 record and are in the hunt for a bowl game.
Washington's psyche is at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. While the Beavers will be motivated to get back to a bowl game, the Huskies are 2-4 in the Pac 12 with losses to Utah, Oregon and Stanford. Chris Petersen is one of the most respected coaches in the nation, but the Huskies may be in letdown mode for the remainder of the season.
Both teams rank inside the top-10 nationally in rushing success rate, so expect both teams to go with a rush-heavy gameplan. This is Pac 12 After Dark, so anything can happen — but these squads rank inside the top-25 in havoc allowed. Oregon State has yet to lose a fumble this season and the Beavers have thrown just two interceptions.
Things aren't as rosy on the other side of the ball for Oregon State. The Beavers rank outside the top-110 in opponent rush and pass explosiveness. Washington quarterback Jacob Eason should enjoy a rebound game after a losing effort against Utah.
Our projected spread for this game is Washington -8.5, so there isn't much value backing either side. Instead, I'm looking towards the total. Our projected Over/Under is 54 and I think it makes a good bet, considering both teams run the ball well. And remember, the last time Oregon State stepped up in weight class it didn't score until the last drive of the game.
The Bet: Under 65
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Kyle Miller: Will Either Team Get Stops?
Oregon State has seemingly taken the Pac 12 by surprise over the last few weeks, scoring wins in three of its last four matchups. Last week the Beavers put up 56 on Arizona, totaling 572 yards in the process. Quarterback Jake Luton went 20-for-26 for 328 yards and three touchdowns while the Beavers running game chipped in 5.8 yards per carry.
Head coach Jonathan Smith has Oregon State’s offense humming, but his defense has still been awful in 2019. The Beavers rank 90th in yards per play allowed, 101st in explosive play percentage allowed, and 102nd in efficiency on that side of the ball. The most glaring mismatch in this game is Oregon State’s pass defense against an excellent, often used Washington air attack.
Eason will be able to pick apart the Beavers pass defense at will. I expect plenty of long pass plays as Washington is 22nd in the country in passing explosiveness and Oregon State is 126th in defending it.
When the Beavers have the ball they’ll use a top-30 tempo, explosive running game, efficient pass game, and a great offensive line to attack Washington.
Coach Smith was Washington coach Chris Peterson’s offensive coordinator for three years, so he knows him better than most. But this Washington defense is much weaker than we’ve grown accustomed to in the past. They’re 53rd in yards per play, 68th in explosive play percentage allowed, and 73rd in line score.
There will be plenty of points in this one and I played the first half over 31.5 when first-half lines were released. It’s since jumped to 33.5 so I prefer to just play the full-game over at this point. I’ll be looking to get involved in that as well as game time nears.
The Bet: Over 65
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