College Football Betting Primer: What to Know Before Placing Week 11 Bets (Saturday, Nov. 11)
Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: A Tennessee Volunteers helmet.
Wow. It's a second consecutive loaded slate in college football. November is in full swing, and we will be treated to a series of massive, season-defining matchups.
There’s a top-10 tilt in Happy Valley, more Pac-12 intrigue (but we say that every week, don’t we?) and, of course, ranked SEC teams colliding.
There are also some fascinating matchups at the Group of Five level.
And, as always, there are plenty of opportunities to win money.
I'm so excited to kick back and enjoy the slate. But first, read about the noteworthy Week 11 storylines before you place your bets.
Alabama has been figuring it out on offense, and a recent Jalen Milroe hot streak has the Tide looking formidable again.
They're creeping back into the national title race, now listed at +800 to win it all. They have recently figured out the deep ball game with Milroe, ranking top-10 nationally in Pass Explosiveness.
They have long figured out Kentucky, though – the Tide are 38-2-1 all-time against the 'Cats.
The biggest game of the week kicks off at noon as Michigan heads to Happy Valley in a massive test for both teams.
James Franklin’s Penn State outfit flunked their first exam in Columbus. Can it earn a passing grade against a Michigan team playing its first top-50 SP+ opponent of the season?
It looks like Jim Harbaugh won’t be on the sideline for this one and the rest of the regular season. That could only be a boost for the Lions, right?
BJ Cunningham lays out the compelling case for the Under in his weekly Pace Report.
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Boston College opened as a short favorite, but money hit Va Tech, pushing it across zero.
The Hokies are currently one-point favorites.
Both teams have alternated between dreadful and surprisingly competent this season.
The great Colorado sell-off has arrived. The most heavily bet team of the early season is now backed by only 38% of bettors, per the Action Network App.
The people are uninspired with Deion’s offensive play-caller shakeup and Shedeur’s injury concerns.
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This might be the most obvious letdown spot in recent memory.
The Cowboys earned one of the biggest wins in school history last week and now make the long trip to Orlando to take on the Knights as road favorites. In this kind of scenario, Oklahoma State has sprung plenty of upsets on the other side of the table. Could they be served a dose of their own medicine?
Stuckey is siding with Gus Malzahn’s chaotic outfit at home, as detailed in his Stuckey’s Spots column.
Good note from the Prime Minister about UCF’s track record at home: Since 2005, UCF has gone 31-21 (59.6%) as a home underdog or single-digit favorite.
This game, which will be played in the House That Aaron Judge Built (Yankee Stadium in the Bronx), sits with a robust total of 37.5. That's not quite Iowa territory, but it’s closing in on a service academy number.
The people have gotten a look at what happens when uninspiring offenses meet in outdoor baseball stadiums in November, and they say: no thank you.
Speaking of Iowa, the books have opened lower and lower totals for the Hawkeyes in the past few years, and typically, there's a bit of a dead-cat bounce.
Like last week, the over/under against Northwestern crept back into the 30s as people bet against the incredible number.
This week’s total against Rutgers opened at 29.5, the lowest in history between two FBS schools, yet there was still an appetite for the under, as it’s now down to an ungodly 28.
The Volunteers have roasted Missouri in the two games since former Mizzou offensive coordinator Josh Heupel took over on Rocky Top, winning by a combined 128-48. Both of those were games played by Hendon Hooker at the height of his playmaking powers.
This year’s Tennessee team is a much more run-oriented vintage, which plays into the hands of Missouri’s strengths – hence the far closer spread.
Missouri’s excellent slot receiver Luther Burden, who is all that and a bag of chips, is questionable for this game. Keep a close eye on his status before betting on this one.
Marshall is currently suffering through one of the worst cold streaks in the country, following up four consecutive victories with five straight losses. The Herd are also on a six-game losing streak against the number.
Georgia Southern has one massive advantage in this matchup: their defense is top-5 nationally at Havoc creation, and Marshall ranks 110th at preventing those kinds of drive-killing plays.
Georgia is still college football's best program, flexing its muscles in big wins against SEC East divisional opponents.
But the Dawgs have looked vulnerable defending the rush, especially on the edges — in particular, Auburn and Missouri stretched the Bulldogs outside.
Maybe it’s just a Tigers thing, but if Ole Miss is going to cover the 10.5 here, both Quinshon Judkins and Jaxson Dart must produce on the ground.
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This might be an interesting emotional spot for the LSU Tigers.
The preseason playoff contender has lost three games, and their defense is a mess.
But they get Florida in a night game in Death Valley. Billy Napier is 19-7 ATS as an underdog in his career.
Jayden Daniels suffered a wicked hit last week but is considered probable to play. His availability and performance could create some live-betting opportunities.
This week, big news from the 40 Acres as injured quarterback Quinn Ewers was cleared to return for the Longhorns.
Although consistency and turnovers were an issue for backup Maalik Murphy, he held it down for a pair of wins to preserve our Texas futures.
Another week, another instance of USC playing in a game with the highest posted total on the board.
This one is anywhere between 75 and 77 (always remember to shop for the best line), and with the Trojan’s calamitous defense, no number seems too small.
Oregon quarterback Bo Nix has fallen behind Michael Penix, Jr in the Heisman odds (+180 to Penix’s +155) and will need to match his rivals’ performance against USC and earn a win with a dominant stat line.
Have you talked to your children about the possibility of bowl-eligible Arkansas State yet?
For me, the Group of Five Deep Dive podcast is appointment listening.
On this week’s episode, listeners were treated to an impassioned stump speech from Mike Ianniello, laying out the case for why Jerry Kill, Diego Pavia and the rest of the Aggies will take down the Hilltoppers this week.
This game opened with a total of 68 and plummeted ten points to 58.
Quarterback Grayson McCall will miss this game for Coastal; in previous seasons, McCall injuries were a kiss of death for this offense.
But the Chanticleers are 2-0 in his midseason absence and still creating big plays, their bread and butter.
Good news: Texas State is 125th in Explosiveness allowed.
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