College Football Bowl Confidence Draft: Ianniello & McGrath’s Top Picks for 2023 Bowl Season

If you haven’t been following, Action Network analysts Mike Ianniello and Tanner McGrath have created a heated rivalry over the years.

Each week, Ianniello and McGrath bet different sides on a college football game, arguing their picks in a head-to-head column.

To end the season, the two engaged in a fantasy-style bowl pick draft, wherein they drafted their top straight-up picks for this year’s bowl games in the style of a bowl confidence pool. Whichever writer wins more games will ride off into the sunset with their own personal "bowl win."

Given Ianniello won the season series, 7-4, he earned the right to pick first.

Because they needed the same number of bowls for the competition, one bowl game was not selected in the draft. An updated scoreboard will be added following the first bowl games of the year.

Ianniello: Oregon quarterback Bo Nix says he's playing, and if he does, this game has blowout written all over it.

The biggest spread on the board for any bowl game, Liberty went undefeated playing the 133rd-ranked strength of schedule this season.

The offense was great against the lack of competition, but the defense is nothing special and gives up a ton of big plays. Oregon ranks second in the country in success rate on offense and is top-25 defensively as well.

The Flames are totally outclassed here. Even if most of Oregon’s top players opt out, the talent gap is enough that the Ducks can win this game with their backups.

McGrath: There’s plenty of transfer portal and opt-out activity surrounding these two entering the Orange Bowl, as both squads narrowly missed the College Football Playoff.

That said, a Jordan Travis-less Seminoles team that posted a combined 440 yards against Florida and Louisville in low-scoring, uninspiring wins isn’t beating Georgia.

Things only get worse with Johnny Wilson opting out.

Whoever plays, Kirby Smart should get his team up for the Bowl game.

Ianniello: The Spartans won six straight games to end the year after a tough schedule to begin the year. Hawaii native Chevan Cordeiro was excellent down the stretch for San Jose State and gets to play his final college game on the island.

Coastal Carolina will be without starting quarterback Grayson McCall and backup quarterback Jarrett Guest. Running back CJ Beasley and wide receiver Jared Brown are also in the transfer portal.

Coastal Carolina has struggled to run the ball all season and now must rely on its third-string quarterback.

The Chants have a terrible defense, and the San Jose State offense has been humming of late. San Jose State should be able to move the ball on them all game and cruise to a win.

McGrath: South Alabama gets to play its bowl game on its home field! The 68 Ventures Bowl will be played at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.

USA loses star lead back La’Damian Webb to the NFL Draft, but Eastern Michigan lost starting quarterback Austin Smith from an offense that already was among the nation’s worst.

I don’t see the Eagles keeping pace here.

Ianniello: I expect a major statement from the Roadrunners here.

Head coach Jeff Traylor is staying at UTSA, and this will mark the final game for Dr. Frank Harris, who will leave as one of the best players in program history.

Marshall has a ton of players in the portal, including starting quarterback Cam Fancher. Freshman Cole Pennington doesn't have the same accuracy as his father, throwing six interceptions with no touchdown passes in three games.

As of now, running back Rasheen Ali appears to be playing, but Marshall’s best offensive lineman is in the transfer portal. UTSA’s defense has been strong against the run anyway.

Back the Roadrunners to send Dr. Harris off in style here.

McGrath: Missouri is so happy to be here. Few Tigers will be opting out.

Meanwhile, Ohio State is furious to be here. Kyle McCord is already in the portal, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see many more as Ryan Day looks to rebuild for next season.

Brady Cook and an explosive Mizzou offense should blow by the Buckeyes’ corpse.

Ianniello: Duke’s roster has been decimated by the transfer portal with head coach Mike Elko leaving for Texas A&M. Troy dominated the Sun Belt, and its offense has been firing all on cylinders down the stretch.

It blew out App State in the Sun Belt Championship game and comes into Birmingham riding high. Even with head coach Jon Sumrall leaving for Tulane, the Trojans appear to have all their key pieces playing in this game.

As long as quarterback Gunnar Watson and running back Kimani Vidal are playing, Troy gets the win over the Blue Devils.

McGrath: Memphis also plays its bowl game in its home stadium, but I really like this Iowa State team. The Cyclones have a scrappy defense and a solid pass offense led by the ever-improving Rocco Becht, who had seven touchdowns and one interception over the final three weeks.

The defense should play especially well here, as Memphis is middling against 3-3-5 stack defenses. Plus, the Tigers had two starting offensive linemen opt out.

Becht and Co. should create explosives against a Memphis team that can’t contain them.

Ianniello: If you've listened to the Group of 5 Deep Dive podcast this season, you know exactly where I'm going with this one. Quarterback Diego Pavia is playing for New Mexico State, and that's all that matters.

Fresno State will be without head coach Jeff Tedford, who stepped away for health reasons. The Aggies are extremely well-coached under Jerry Kill and playing at home in New Mexico.

Fresno State had a disappointing season after winning the Mountain West last season and beating Washington State in the LA Bowl. It doesn't want to be in this game.

Expect New Mexico State to slow down the Bulldogs' passing attack and prevent big plays while Diego does what he always does — make enough plays to pick up the win for the Aggies.

McGrath: Virginia Tech has three guys in the portal, but everyone else is playing.

Tulane lost its head coach, Willie Fritz, alongside five key players with at least 480 regular-season snaps played. Considering the coaching change, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more of the Green Wave gone soon.

If Michael Pratt is out, it's curtains for Tulane, which already lost its backup quarterback to the portal.

Regardless, I like the Hokies' chances against a potential corpse.

Ianniello: The ultimate motivation spot of bowl season — a retirement game. After 10 seasons in Laramie, head coach Craig Bohl is retiring after this game, and that's all I needed to hear to back Wyoming in this spot.

Toledo is coming off a massive letdown after losing in the MAC Championship game to Miami (OH), and now, starting quarterback Dequan Finn is in the transfer portal. Stud cornerback Quinyon Mitchell will likely opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft as well.

I don’t see the Rockets getting up for this game at all, while the Cowboys will be incredibly motivated to send their head coach off into the sunset with a victory.

McGrath: This is a sneaky, under-the-radar, super-fun bowl game. Kansas and UNLV boast fun, explosive offensive schemes.

Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is gone to Penn State, but Lance Leipold and new offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes — who is already helping with bowl prep — should be fine.

There are no big opt-outs for either side, so I like my chances with the double-digit Big 12 favorite and the better quarterback — I’ll take Jason Bean over Jayden Maiava any day.

Also, Kansas’ offense is much better, ranking sixth in EPA per Play compared to 40th for UNLV.

Ianniello: It’s unclear exactly who will play for LSU in this game, but even assuming Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels opts out, backup quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is incredibly talented and has a cannon of an arm.

LSU always has a ton of wide receiver depth, so even with Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas likely opting out, the guys behind them will still be a problem for the Wisconsin defense.

The Tigers have plenty of issues on defense, but with Wisconsin stud running back Braelon Allen opting out, the Badgers don’t have the weapons to keep up with LSU here.

McGrath: I’ll take another double-digit favorite here in SMU.

Starting quarterback Preston Stone suffered a season-ending injury, but Kevin Jennings looked fine in the AAC Championship game, managing over 200 yards with a 10.2 aDOT.

Anyone can shred this Boston College defense, which ranks 118th in EPA per Play Allowed.

Boston College had a dream season, winning six games by leaning into a dual-threat rushing attack spearheaded by Thomas Castellanos.

But it’ll be tough to score on a top-10 SMU defense (by EPA per Play Allowed), which didn't lose anyone to the portal or opt-outs.

Ianniello: There are just too many opt-outs to trust an Ohio team that underperformed all season long.

Quarterback Kurtis Rourke, running backs Sieh Bangura and O’Shaan Allison, and wide receiver Miles Cross are all in the portal.

Third-string quarterback Parker Navarro will start at quarterback and play a very good Georgia Southern offense that wants to play fast and throw the ball all over the year.

Stud receivers Khaleb Hood and Derwin Burgess are both expected to play, giving Davis Brin his full complement of receivers against an Ohio defense that hasn’t faced a good passing attack all season.

The way the Eagles play on offense, they can pull away in a hurry. Ohio won’t be able to keep up.

McGrath: I think everyone has a sour taste when discussing Louisville after its pathetic ACC Championship performance, but let’s not overlook what the Cardinals did this year.

They won 10 games behind a top-10 defense (by EPA per Play Allowed) and a top-20 offense (by Success Rate). They beat Notre Dame and Duke.

USC can’t stop a nosebleed on defense. On offense, the Trojans lost Caleb Williams, MarShawn Lloyd and Brenden Rice to the NFL Draft. Also, starting offensive lineman Jarrett Kingston might not play after missing the regular-season finale with an injury.

USC is a walking corpse, and Louisville should take advantage.

Ianniello: Old Dominion greatly outperformed expectations and fought hard to win their final two games to reach bowl eligibility. Western Kentucky expected to be playing in the conference championship game but looked terrible for the majority of the season and were very disappointing.

The Hilltoppers starting left guard, center, and right tackle are all studs, and are all in the transfer portal. So is their starting cornerback and linebacker. Rumors are swirling about quarterback Austin Reed, as well.

Old Dominion was eighth in the country in explosiveness with running backs Kadarius Calloway and Keshawn Wicks. Quarterback Grant Wilson should have his top two receivers — both of whomaveraged over 18 yards per reception.

Expect the Monarchs to have success against a Western Kentucky defense that ranks 103rd in Success Rate.

McGrath: Hugh Freeze is 7-1 ATS coaching in bowl games. Auburn didn’t lose too much to the portal and should have plenty of firepower for this game.

Maryland can’t stop the run, so Payton Thorne, Robby Ashford and Jarquez Hunter should win this one by running up the gut.

I’m worried about Taulia Tagovailoa, who is playing in this game, but I don’t think the Terps have much firepower aside from that.

Ianniello: Few teams have a better motivation than Jacksonville State. In their first FBS season, the Gamecocks went 8-4 overall and 6-2 in conference play but were ineligible for the conference championship game.

They will now face a Louisiana team that's terrible at stopping the run, ranking 121st in the country in Rushing Success. That's what Rich Rod’s team does best.

Running backs Malik Jackson, Anwar Lewis and Ron Wiggins, plus quarterback Zion Webb, all average more than 5.0 yards per carry.

The Gamecocks will be able to run the ball all over this Cajuns defense. They play super fast and keep their foot on the gas, so if Jacksonville State can get an early lead, this could get ugly quick.

McGrath: I like both squads, but I’ll take the five-point favorite that won three of its last four to end the year.

Central Florida finished the year fourth nationally in EPA per Rush, and the Knights should take advantage of a feeble Yellow Jacket front seven.

UCF also can’t stop the rush, but Georgia Tech is a more balanced attack with Haynes King, and the Knights’ pass defense should hold up.

Ianniello: This game is a mess. Oregon State lost its head coach, starting quarterback, backup quarterback, starting running back, leading tackler and a whole lot more.

Notre Dame lost its starting running back, stud left tackle and starting quarterback as well. The Irish will at least have their head coach and likely a majority of their defense.

In a game that will feature mostly backups, Notre Dame's second team should be a lot more talented than Oregon State’s.

McGrath: Texas A&M is a corpse with no head coach and a third-string quarterback. Eleven players with at least 350 regular-season snaps have either opted out or hit the portal.

Oklahoma State will have almost its entire roster for the bowl after going on one of the best late-season runs of any FBS team. The Pokes won seven of their final eight to earn an unlikely bid to the Big 12 Championship game.

I don’t know if Ollie Gordon II will be available, but Alan Bowman will be, and that should be enough.

Ianniello: Star quarterback Drake Maye is opting out for North Carolina, putting the Tar Heels in a difficult situation.

West Virginia has one of the best running attacks in the country with dual-threat quarterback Garrett Greene and a pair of stud running backs in CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White.

West Virginia ranks third in the country in rushing offense and will have a great matchup against a Tar Heels defense that sits 120th in Stuff Rate.

The Mountaineers appeared to be fighting for their head coach all season long, and North Carolina tanked down the stretch, losing four of its final five games.

McGrath: I don’t think South Florida is that good, especially on defense, where the Bulls finished the year 98th nationally in EPA per Play Allowed.

After starting the year 4-0, they finished by losing six of their final eight.

With a fully healthy Garrett Shrader, the Power Five Orange should overwhelm the lowly Bulls. Syracuse posted 28 PPG over its final three contests, winning two.

Ianniello: As disappointing as this season was for Clemson, it was also on the wrong side of a ton of bad luck.Things like turnover luck and fourth-down success are not truly indicative of the talent gap between these two squads.

Say what you want about Dabo Swinney, but he has always been really good at motivating his players. Clemson is 11-7 in the postseason under Swinney, with two of those losses coming in National Championship games.

This should be a lower-scoring defensive game, and I trust the Clemson defense more than the Kentucky defense, and I trust Cade Klubnik more than I trust Devin Leary.

McGrath: JT Daniels is done, medically retiring after Week 11.

TJ Finley has been red-hot this year, finishing the season with 3,200 yards and 24 touchdowns. He threw for over 1,000 yards and nine scores in his final three complete games.

The Bobs have a huge quarterback advantage here — and a considerable coaching advantage.

GJ Kinne has proven himself to be a more-than-competent head coach, and he’ll look to cap off a successful inaugural season with a bowl win. He should get the job done against Mike Bloomgren, who failed to beat a single bowl team this year.

Ianniello: Boise State is going to be entirely one-dimensional in this game. Quarterback Taylen Green is transferring to Arkansas, and backup Maddux Madsen is injured. Boise State’s top three receivers are also in the portal.

This game is 100% going to be the Ashton Jeanty show. I love Jeanty and think he's one of the best running backs in college football.

The problem is, teams can’t run on this UCLA defense.

The Bruins rank second in the country allowing just 69 rushing yards per game on just 2.3 yards per carry. UCLA has allowed only three rushing touchdowns all season, the fewest in the country.

Even with the Bruins' offensive limitations, I don’t see how Boise State scores here.

McGrath: Arizona was among the best teams in college football this year. It won nine games, with all three losses coming by one score, two coming in overtime and two coming to two top-10 teams at the time.

The ‘Cats finished the year winning six straight, including four over ranked teams. They’re among the nation’s most balanced offensive attacks behind Noah Fifita, Jacob Cowing and Tetairoa McMillan.

There’s a chance Cowing misses the bowl, but Oklahoma’s losses will offset that. The Sooners say goodbye to superstar quarterback Dillon Gabriel and starting left guard Cayden Green, while two other starting offensive linemen opted out.

Jedd Fisch ends his miracle year with an Alamo Bowl victory.

Ianniello: Look, this Iowa team is terrible. It literally has the worst offense in the country, ranking 133rd out of 133 teams.

It got through the clown cars in the Big Ten West, but let’s not pretend it's capable of beating a competent team just by punting the ball.

Tennessee has a really improved defense, ranking 31st in the country, and it's especially strong against the run. There's a decent chance the Hawkeyes don’t score at all in this game.

I like the Volunteers running game and expect them to be able to do enough with Jabari Small to never really be in danger of losing this game.

McGrath: The Panthers are losers of five straight entering their bowl game.

They’re also losers of significant portal movement, as starting running back Marcus Carroll, top wide receiver Robert Lewis, starting right tackle Montavious Cunningham and starting cornerback Bryquice Brown are gone.

That’s four key players at four key positions. Losing Carroll and Cunningham is especially brutal for a rush-first Georgia State offense.

Utah State didn't lose anyone to the portal, and the Aggies have all their explosive playmakers available from an offense that finished 16th nationally in explosiveness.

That’ll be the difference against a Panthers defense that ranked 112th in explosiveness allowed.

Ianniello: That’s right, I’m taking the playoff matchup with the shorter spread first.

We've seen in Michigan completely abandon the pass and rely solely on its running game in its two biggest games this season. As dominant as it's been running the ball, this Alabama defense is terrific.

The Crimson Tide rank top 15 in the country in Success Rate and have studs all over their defense. I expect them to put pressure on J.J. McCarthy and force this Michigan offense to become one-dimensional again.

Jalen Milroe continues to improve and is lethal with his rushing ability and deep ball. He will be the best quarterback this Michigan defense has faced all season.

Just when everybody begins to write off the Alabama dynasty as dead and plan Nick Saban’s retirement party, doesn’t it just make sense that the Crimson Tide would win another National Championship?

McGrath: Let’s go ahead and pick the CFP winners back-to-back at picks 31 and 32 in our confidence draft.

I honestly think Washington spent all year preparing only for Oregon. I’m unsure if it'll be ready to play a Texas team that's among the most talented two-way rosters in the nation.

Washington’s defense isn’t that good. The Huskies' secondary is questionable, and the rush defense is downright trash. That should sink them in the semis.

Ianniello: Penn State has dominated every team it has played except for two of the top seven teams in the country. Ole Miss is a very good program, but it's not in that same category.

So far, defensive end Chop Robinson is the only opt-out for the Nittany Lions with everybody else seemingly ready to go. P

enn State might have the best defense in the country, ranking first in the country in Success Rate. It's elite against the run and the pass and plenty capable of slowing down Quinshon Judkins and Jaxson Dart.

The biggest area Penn State has struggled in is creating big plays on offense, but with a month of preparation against a below-average Ole Miss defense, give me the Nittany Lions to win what should be a fun game in Atlanta.

McGrath: This is my bold bowl confidence pool pick.

Miami (OH) is on its third-string quarterback, but that doesn’t matter. The RedHawks win games by relying on their elite defense and even more elite special teams unit — they finished first nationally in ESPN’s SP+ special teams ratings.

The RedHawks are excellent at tackling, preventing explosives and forcing opponents to drive down the field methodically without making any mistakes.

I think Joey Aguilar is an excellent quarterback, and he led an elite App State passing attack, but he’s a gunslinger who finished the year with the second-most turnover-worthy throws in FBS (28). One mistake here, and the Mountaineers are cooked.

Meanwhile, Miami (OH) will limit mistakes and take pressure off its third-string quarterback by grounding and pounding against one of the nation’s worst front sevens. The ‘Neers allowed over 175 rush yards per game this season, including over 270 to Troy in the Sun Belt championship game.

Miami (OH) hasn’t won 12 games since 2003. That changes this year.

Ianniello: Arkansas State was a lot better than people thought this year and one of 12 teams in the Sun Belt to reach a bowl game.

Freshman Jaylen Raynor took over at quarterback after three games and helped lead this offense to a top-20 ranking in explosiveness.

Northern Illinois struggled in a bad MAC league and has no passing attack at all. Its best receiver is in the transfer portal, and the rest of the receiver room is dealing with injuries. The Huskies are one-dimensional on offense and can’t stop the run on defense.

The Red Wolves are the better team here, and I like them to score the win as a short underdog.

McGrath: Kansas State won games this year by outscoring opponents with a bruising rush-first offense and rock-solid quarterback play.

But starting quarterback Will Howard is in the portal, alongside starting running back Treshaun Ford. Plus, offensive coordinator Collin Klein took the Texas A&M job. Those losses likely sink the ‘Cats here.

Even worse, two starting defensive backs in Kobe Savage and Will Lee III hit the portal, while wide receiver Phillip Brooks and tight end Ben Sinnott opted out.

NC State lost some players in the portal, but Brennan Armstrong should be starting the game, which is fine.

The Wolfpack ride a five-game winning streak into their bowl game, and I think Dave Doeren would love a 10-win season on his resume — he’s never won 10 with the Pack, last posting a double-digit win season with Northern Illinois in 2012.

Ianniello: These teams both went 6-6, but it doesn’t quite feel the same. Cal outperformed its win total of five, whereas Texas Tech severely underachieved and went under its win total of 7.5.

The Red Raiders' passing game has been terrible, and quarterback Tyler Shough got hurt and then transferred. Behren Morton took over under center and threw just 12 touchdowns with seven interceptions.

On top of that, Texas Tech’s two best receivers are in the portal.

Cal’s defense is a lot better against the run than it is against the pass, and it should be able to keep Tahj Brooks in check.

The Bears also want to rely on their game with stud back Jaydn Ott.

Freshman Fernando Mendoza took over at quarterback halfway through the year and looked much better as the season went on.

The Bears won their final three games to reach bowl eligibility and come into this game in a much better spot than the Red Raiders.

McGrath: Greg Schiano is 5-1-1 ATS in bowl games in his coaching career. Mario Cristobal is 2-4-1.

Both teams suffered tough portal and opt-out losses, but Miami suffered more, the biggest loss being starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke.

Rutgers played the nation’s second-toughest schedule this year, and I favor Rutgers’ coaching and quarterback situation here.

Ianniello: No one fought harder to reach a bowl than James Madison. The team, the school and the fans have been campaigning for it all season. The Dukes were a blind bet-on team the moment they reached bowl eligibility.

I know all the stats about service academies in bowl games. Do I wish they were playing any other team? Yes. Am I letting the trends scare me away? No.

JMU’s starting quarterback and nearly its entire defense are in the transfer portal, but they all announced they still intend to play in the game. That tells me this matters to them. This team wants to finish what it started and what it fought for all season.

Air Force was likely headed to a New Year’s Six bowl before it went into a tailspin and lost its final four games of the season.

Its quarterback is hurt, its running back is in the transfer portal, and James Madison ranks first in the entire country in Defensive Success Rate against the run.

James Madison chanted “Let Us Bowl!” all season long, and now they get to. I’m backing the Dukes to finish what they started.

McGrath: Here’s my second bold bowl confidence pool pick.

Northwestern winning seven games after the Pat Fitzgerald mess is incredible. David Braun is a miracle worker. And he should have his team motivated to finish this miracle season on a high note. He has almost his entire roster to accomplish this task; almost nobody hit the portal or opted out.

Utah might be a corpse, losing three of its final games after starting 6-1. The Utes have a half-dozen players in the portal and lost two crucial defensive starters earlier in the year.

I love this ‘dog outright. I think the Wildcats will really care here.

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