Illinois vs Minnesota Odds & Picks: Expect a Close Big Ten Matchup

Minnesota welcomes Illinois to Huntington Bank Stadium on Saturday afternoon for a Big Ten matchup between two programs pushing for a bowl bid.

The Gophers have won three of their past four and are 5-3 (3-2 in conference) with an opportunity to make the league title game.

Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini will have the rest advantage as they are coming off their bye week. They're 3-5 on the year, but have just one conference victory.

If you just looked at the records of both teams, you'd be surprised by the odds. However, I agree with the oddsmakers.

Coach Bret Bielema's tenure, in his third year with the program, is off to a great start compared to previous coaches at the university. His 10 conference wins through his first three seasons are the most since Lou Tepper’s 13 from 1992-94.

Bielema has also secured six conference road victories. Only two other coaches in program history picked up more in their first three years.

One of the keys to that success has been the play of defensive tackles Jer’Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph Jr.

Newton is tied for the national lead in quarterback pressures among interior defenders, according to Pro Football Focus, which earned him a place on the AP Midseason All-American First Team. Meanwhile, Randolph has the best mark for tackles per game among defensive tackles with 5.5.

On the offensive side of the ball, everything goes through Isaiah Williams, who is second in the conference in receptions (46) and receiving yards (562). He trails Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. in both categories and that's obviously pretty good company to be associated with.

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P.J. Fleck, who could earn his 50th win at Minnesota with a victory this weekend, has also had success. He could become the fastest to win 50 games with the Gophers since Bernie Bierman in 1940.

Fleck’s latest great coaching decision was riding with Jordan Nubin in the 27-12 victory over Michigan State.

Entering the game with 15 career rushing attempts for 15 yards, Nubin racked up 204 yards and a pair of scores against the Spartans and was later named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week.

Once you add that Minnesota has only given up 22 combined points in its past two contests, the Gophers have to feel they are in the running for a division title.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Illinois and Minnesota match up statistically:

Illinois Offense vs. Minnesota Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	40	65
Line Yards	21	34
Pass Success	52	61
Havoc	113	99
Finishing Drives	86	125
Quality Drives	119	58

Minnesota Offense vs. Illinois Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	76	96
Line Yards	58	118
Pass Success	119	64
Havoc	28	117
Finishing Drives	96	86
Quality Drives	66	105

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	63	95
PFF Coverage	94	49
Special Teams SP+	78	36
Middle 8	70	75
Seconds per Play	25.1 (34)	30.4 (125)
Rush Rate	50.7% (102)	64.7% (10)

In a game that is going to be a run-first, defensive battle, there is one defense that I believe in more — Illinois.

So, my best bet is to take Illinois +2, which I would play to +1.5. I'd also take the moneyline at +100 odds or better.

The first advantage for the Fighting Illini is in finishing drives, where Minnesota’s defense ranks 125th in the nation. If you take it a step further, the Gophers are 128th in red zone scoring defense.

Illinois is also the better-tackling team as it ranks 63rd, compared to Minnesota's 95th, according to PFF.

I like Illinois to spoil Minnesota’s hopes of a division title on Saturday.

Pick: Illinois +2 (Play to +1.5)