Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State Pick, Odds: Aggies Hold Value
Sam Wasson/Getty Images. Pictured: NMSU’s Diego Pavia.
Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State Odds
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+3 -110 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | +140 |
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-3 -110 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | -165 |
In the push for a Conference USA title, New Mexico State hosts Middle Tennessee on Saturday night.
The Aggies enter this game on a four-game winning streak, which has pushed them into second place in the C-USA with a 4-1 league record.
Meanwhile, the Blue Raiders have dropped four of their past five contests and are now 2-6 overall and 1-3 in league play.
Both teams are moving in opposite directions, which gives us betting value on the favorite.
Coach Rick Stockstill has been with MTSU for a long time and seen a lot of things, but this is a unique situation. The Blue Raiders will have had a 17-day break by the time this game kicks off, the longest break for the school in the modern era.
Another thing Stockstill is unfamiliar with is a losing season, which is where Middle Tennessee is headed. Over the past 11 years, Stockstill’s team has finished with a losing record just twice, and one of those campaigns was the COVID season.
If there is one thing to be positive about, it's that quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has played well. He ranks in the top 25 in the FBS in multiple categories, including completions (ninth), completion percentage (18th) and passing yards (23rd).
Before the long break, Vattiato threw for a career-best 408 yards against Jacksonville State, which followed his 332 yards at Liberty. He’ll need to continue to play at a high level to give the Blue Raiders a chance this weekend.
This all feels like déjà vu for coach Jerry Kill and NMSU. Last season, the Aggies got off to a rocky 1-5 start before a late-season surge led them to a bowl victory.
This season, Kill's squad suffered some embarrassing losses early, falling short against Massachusetts and Hawaii. However, everything has changed over the past month.
New Mexico State defeated FIU, Sam Houston, UTEP and Louisiana Tech and now sits in the driver's seat for a spot in the C-USA Championship Game.
One of the keys to this run has been the play of Diego Pavia, who has turned into one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the conference.
In league play, Pavia has thrown for eight scores and added another five with his legs. His 13 total touchdowns trail only Liberty’s Kaidon Salter, and the two could meet for a rematch in the title game.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Middle Tennessee and New Mexico State match up statistically:
Middle Tennessee Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 113 | 93 | |
| Line Yards | 112 | 50 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 66 | |
| Havoc | 115 | 42 | |
| Finishing Drives | 95 | 75 | |
| Quality Drives | 102 | 59 |
New Mexico State Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 118 | |
| Line Yards | 5 | 98 | |
| Pass Success | 53 | 109 | |
| Havoc | 47 | 53 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 132 | |
| Quality Drives | 43 | 85 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 107 | 118 |
| PFF Coverage | 129 | 101 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 115 | 68 |
| Middle 8 | 87 | 34 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.0 (32) | 30.6 (127) |
| Rush Rate | 45.8% (118) | 58.5% (25) |
Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Whether you look at the full-season metrics or the past four games, New Mexico State has been the better team across the board. As a result, I don’t believe this spread is high enough.
So, I will be backing the Aggies at -3 as my best bet.
Yes, the Blue Raiders have been competitive against the other top teams (Liberty and Jacksonville State) in the conference, but they still lost both of those matchups by more than this spread.
The biggest mismatch in this game is going to be NMSU’s run game against MTSU’s weak front. Middle Tennessee is 98th in line yards and 118th in rush success on defense.
This is also the same defensive unit that is 132nd out of 133 teams in defensive finishing drives. None of those metrics are good against a top-five offense in both rush success and line yards.
I expect a game in which the Aggies will be able to run in chunks and keep Vattiato on the sidelines. I expect Kill's squad to continue this great late-season surge.
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