College Football Odds & Picks for Air Force vs. Army: Sharp Bets Hitting Spread & Under Trend
Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Tyhier Tyler
- Another week, another service academy game.
- Army takes on Air Force on Saturday, and sharps have taken notice of the game and the betting value that surrounds it.
- Check out Danny Donahue's breakdown of what that means below.
College Football Odds: Air Force vs. Army
|Air Force Odds||-2.5|
|PRO Projection||ARMY -0.3 | 44.6|
|Time||Saturday, 3 p.m. ET|
On a Saturday littered with college football conference championships, marquee college hoops matchups and a pair of NFL games, an Air Force vs. Army showdown might have some trouble moving the needle.
But while it doesn’t necessarily scream “excitement,” the matchup is still certainly a notable one in terms of betting value.
Air Force is a slight favorite on Saturday afternoon, and the total is set at a noticeably low number. Both lines are attracting sharps and triggering some other value indicators on our PRO Report.
Note: Odds, data as of 11:30 a.m. ET Friday.
College Football Picks: Air Force vs. Army Spread
The most clear display of sharp action on this game has come via the spread, and it’s caused oddsmakers to make a line move of the most important number in football betting.
After opening this line at a single point in favor of Air Force, oddsmakers quickly shot up all the way to -3 as most bettors (67% as of writing) have taken the favorite. But once the 3-point spread was reached, sharps made their move.
In fact, eight Sports Insights Bet Signals have confirmed the pros to be landing on Army, as they’ve revealed eight separate instances of market-wide reaction to sharp action.
It is worth noting, though, that all eight moves came at the key number of +3.
Sharp Action edge: Army
According to our model’s projections, there’s good reason for the pros to be siding with the underdog. It suggests that the Black Knights should, if anything, be favored in this game, setting the true spread at Army -0.3.
Model Projections edge: Army
It’s not just sharps taking Army, either. Our experts have also lined up on the Black Knights, though like the professionals, all of their picks have come at +3 or greater.
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Top Experts edge: Army
College Football Picks: Air Force vs. Army Over/Under
While our PRO Report’s indicators haven’t been completely in sync on the total, it’s still worth noting how sharps and our experts are playing this game, and perhaps most importantly for those who are unaware, the service academy over/under trend.
With 77% of bettors taking the under as of writing, its sharp backing isn’t as obvious as it was in the case of the spread. But a Sports Insights Bet Signal triggered at 38.5 confirms that sharps are among the majority helping to bring this line down.
Sharp Action edge: Under
As for the probable reason that this is one of the lowest totals of the entire college football season, look no further than the service academy over/under trend.
Since 2005, games played between two service academy teams (Army, Navy, Air Force) have gone 37-9-1 (80%) to the under, making the trend one of our PRO Betting Systems.
PRO Systems edge: Under
Our model — not so influenced by the trend — is the only value indicator in conflict. It sets this total at 44.6, suggesting some room for over value, or perhaps forecasting potential buyback if the number continues to dip.
Model Projections edge: Over
Our experts are once again in line with the sharps, and once again they’ve hit this line at better numbers than what’s currently being offered (38 and 38.5).
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Top Experts edge: Under