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The North Dakota State Bison take on the New Mexico Lobos in Albuquerque, NM. Kickoff is set for 10 p.m. ET on The CW.
New Mexico is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -195. The total is set at 40.5 points.
Here’s my North Dakota State vs. New Mexico prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 24, 2026.
North Dakota State vs New Mexico Prediction
- North Dakota State vs. New Mexico Picks: New Mexico -4.5 | North Dakota State Team Total Under 18.5
My New Mexico vs. North Dakota State best bets are on the Lobos ATS and the Bison team total under 18.5 points. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
North Dakota State vs New Mexico Odds
| North Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -106 | 40.5 -120o / -102u | +168 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -114 | 40.5 -120o / -102u | -205 |
- North Dakota State vs New Mexico point spread: North Dakota State +4.5 (-106), New Mexico -4.5 (-114)
- North Dakota State vs New Mexico over/under: 40.5 (-120o / -102u)
- North Dakota State vs New Mexico moneyline: North Dakota State +160, New Mexico -195
North Dakota State vs New Mexico College Football Preview
North Dakota State Bison Betting Preview: Less Potent Offense
North Dakota State has transitioned well to the FBS level while sitting at 6-1, and the Bison are squarely in the thick of the Mountain West Conference race.
North Dakota State has been dominant at home while posting a 4-0 record in the Fargo Dome, but the team has found itself in some road battles. The road loss at UNLV is the only blemish, but the operation did not look as crisp last week at home against Nevada.
The Bison were down 11-0 while registering just 62 total yards on their first three possessions before scoring back-to-back touchdowns to close out the first half.
This was capped by a field goal return touchdown, and North Dakota State, which had zero points with six minutes remaining in the second quarter, ended the half with 19. Nevada could never recover.
North Dakota State's offense hasn't been as potent as we're used to seeing at the FCS level. The personnel isn't as dynamic, the quarterback play isn't as sharp, and the offensive line isn't as dominant.
However, the Bison are getting the job done.
Nathan Hayes has completed 65% of his passes this season for 1,272 yards with a 10:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The receiver group is led by Jackson Williams, who has hauled in 28 receptions for 432 yards, with tight end Reis Kessel being a solid third-down option who's used frequently. Kessel has 17 catches and a pair of touchdowns.
The ground game has been serviceable, with Myles Mitchell and DJ Scott splitting the carries. The pair has run for 660 yards and seven rushing touchdowns.
Hayes has a nose for the goal line inside the red zone and also has four rushing scores, but the Bison have only recorded six rushing plays over 20 yards all season.
The Bison have not averaged over five yards per carry in any game this season and have just one rushing touchdown in their last two games.
The defense has been stout as the Bison simply don't allow explosive plays. The Bison are third nationally, surrendering 13 plays in excess of 20 yards against them, and this hard-nosed defense has allowed just two plays all season that went for 30 or more yards.
The defense forces long, methodical drives that can frustrate opponents, and its situational execution on third down and in the red zone has been excellent.
The result is a unit that allows 11.3 points per game and has held five of seven opponents to 13 points or fewer.
This is a nasty bunch.
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Really Tough Defense
New Mexico has been collecting the dividends issued by its exquisite coaching hire, Jason Eck, who has immediately improved the culture, toughness and attitude of his team.
New Mexico has gone to Michigan, UCLA and Oklahoma and competed very well while playing up against P4 competition. Eck has this team believing that it's not only the best team in the MWC, but the best at the G6 level.
The offense is not going to provide a lot of the “wow-factor” that many people are looking for, primarily because New Mexico has had two quarterbacks suffer season-ending injuries. James Laubstein started the year in contention for the backup spot, and he has been ruled out for the year.
Jack Layne hasn’t played a snap all season and will not be able to go this year.
Sophomore Toa Fa’avae got the call last week and completed five of 10 passes for just 59 yards with a pair of interceptions.
New Mexico deployed a rush-heavy approach that mimicked some of the Lobos' offenses of old, where several running backs were involved along with a decent amount of QB run.
Scottre Humphrey rushed for 90 yards, Kiefer Sibley chipped in 87 and Fa’avae 77 as the Lobos ran for 243 yards while grinding out a 21-10 win over Hawaii last week.
New Mexico was in serious trouble coming out of the bye week, having to face Hawaii on the road, and this group was held to just seven points through three quarters.
The offense found its rhythm late, but I expect more slow-burning, grind-style games from this team going forward given the quarterback situation.
The defense has been locked in this year, and the Lobos might have the toughest defense at the G6 level. New Mexico ranks first in the country in defensive success rate, first in Havoc registered and second in points allowed per opponent scoring opportunity.
Over six games, New Mexico has allowed three total red zone touchdowns, and none of them were against Oklahoma. The run-stop unit has shown up every week, and the Lobos have pressured opposing quarterbacks while creating plenty of activity in the backfield.
This defense should be completely locked in here.
North Dakota State vs New Mexico Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with New Mexico listed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total that opened at 46.5 and has been bet down substantially to 41.5. New Mexico is seeing some activity on them, and the line has been pushed out to -4.5.
Heavy wind is expected on Saturday night in Albuquerque, NM for this one, and I can understand the move to the under. I laid the early number with New Mexico, but I also like the North Dakota State team total under 18.5, which can be bet at FanDuel.
New Mexico has not allowed an opponent to exceed 18 points against it all season, and the pace of this contest is going to be incredibly slow.
North Dakota State has played three road games this year and has run 60, 59, and 61 total offensive plays in each of those contests. North Dakota State operates at the 13th-slowest tempo nationally, and that pace shrinks even further when away from home.
The Bison offense isn't nearly as explosive as it was in prior seasons, and it's completely comfortable playing a methodical game with heavy run action. North Dakota State runs the ball 63% of the time but has only recorded six rushing plays for 20+ yards this season.
New Mexico ranks seventh nationally in rush play success rate and 17th in PPA Per Rush allowed on defense. The Bison will have to execute perfectly on early downs to find “3rd-and-manageable” situations.
I worry about the North Dakota State offensive line holding up here against the Lobos defensive front, which creates more havoc than any other defense in the country. 54 tackles-for-loss have been registered, with 19 of those being quarterback sacks.
Hayes is going to be under pressure here, and that will cause early and errant throws that should result in off-target incompletions. Third-down and red-zone success are not likely, and that will play into the hands of the style that New Mexico wants this game at.
The Lobos are unlikely to run away with this game, and they'll also operate at a slower offensive tempo. Possessions will be limited, and few will result in scoring opportunities.
New Mexico will run the ball 71% of the time, and while they will succeed on the ground, few explosive plays will materialize. Slow, methodical drives are coming, and the clock will be moving quickly here.
Expect a game where the winning team may not reach 17 points, as this will be the definition of a slow-burning grind. It is going to be hard for North Dakota State to score three times. Team total under.
Picks:
- New Mexico -4.5 (logged -3.5 earlier in the week in the Action App)
- North Dakota State Team Total Under 18.5
